Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Glad to see y'all picked right back up where you left off. I am glad for the comic relief when things get really going.

jflorida the low level flow. the same flow that steers tropical waves from africa accross the atlantic. a week system is shallow and steered by the shallow envirmonet. a strong or complex storm is vertically stack so its harder to steer

myles i stick to my forecast i dont change it everytime a new advisory comes out...sure they will be changes on the way just like i said the storm will come to a screeching halt in about 12 hours because of the upper level low to the sw of it but it will give alberto more time over the warm waters...i said everything that was going to happen from the get go with this system i predicted the westerly component early yesterday morning and everyone in here except a few thought i was crazy...wise up myles i did nothing wrong but stick to my guns on this...this is not a contest its a serious thing we could have here since this away from the land area now...so dont hop all over me pal i havent seen you come up with crap on this you are a hypocrite who likes to criticize any chance you get....

Will someone do me a favor and post a map that has the high pressure systems and cold fronts listed.. Not a loop, just a still picture with graphics.. Know what I mean?

Stormtop was mostly right, telling us TD1
would be Alberto by 5am. It became a TD with the 11am adv. Thats reasonably close, I'll score it like a neighborhood double play at 2nd base and give ST a correct on this, getting ST off the schneid.

Score for the season:

Mother Nature 3
Storm Top 1

We'll see if ST's prediction that fla is off the hook hold true.

Actualy Lefty and Stormptop, ya'll are somewhat in agreement, as far as the possible more north-west or westerly turn this thing will take....from what I see both of you saying, the disagreement is on whether Alberto will maintain it's strength as it moves more westward. Am I right about that?
I am in agreement with Lefty about it loosing it's punch and becoming nothing more than a rain event if it turns more westerly. I think it is going to turn even more west that either of you guys are saying, and cross the mid Texas coast as a rain event, if that.

lol thanks boomer

I am sticking with my orifginal forecast of no more than a 45-55 mph tropical storm between Pensacola and Tampa and if I am wrong on it its going to be because it weakened and as it currently is doing right now.

I will be shocked and eat my words if I wrong any other way on this forecast such as it going to Texas or SW La. as a tropical storm just for the record.

I am seriously not trying to be disagreeable Stormtop but I don't honetly see how it's possible.

Since I have done this professionally, I most certainly understanding being incorrect is part of the profession too often in such an inexact science as this and I may ultimately be wrong here but I just can't imagine it happening in all honesty.

Ok.........now, now, guys.........lets play nice....If everyone has been reading these blogs since they started we all know what everyone has predicted on here....I havent seen anyone on here perfect.....StormTop, you said last weekend that this area wasnt going to do anything and never had a chance to even come close to florida.......I believe you said Mexico or the southern Texas coast......Im here in orlando and getting prepared for my visit with Alberto which if the NHC is correct, means that i will only have to drive about 75 miles..........i will post video if theirs anything to video.....

Watch the BAMS and BAMM. They will have the best track as the circ is confined to low and mid levels. Upper level is pure SW flow. That is what is driving the other models to take it NE.

Best thing that will come out of Alberto is rain along FL, and more moisture advection into the atmsphere in the N and W gulf. Need to get an MT vice CP(modified) airmass along the Gulf coast and SE so we can get some airmass TRW. Everybody needs rain down here.

I'm off to P'Cola in a couple hours to catch some waves before dark. Gonna be sloppy and sideshore...but ya gotta get what ya can get if you are along the Gulf Coast. Should get a few nice drops hopefully.

i am not forcasting anything just stating what i see. i never said it would bor or wouldn't be a ts. i have stated it will never be a hurricane. i have also stated the resons why it woudl do one thing or another. things we canlt forcast it will do. its up to the system now. if it survives recurve. if it doesnlt it drifts. gthats all i am saying. and right now i am will be shocked of he is a ts for that long. since the nice fklare up ion the east side showed uo the convection has died considerably and has become eeven further away from the cenetr. he is possibly detaching and i noticed in high res visible imagery the cenetr no longer looks as orginised and has become more broud. less bands than it had this mornign at 6-7am.

BOYS BOYS YALL NEED TO GIVE THIS COMPUTER A BREAK AND DO SOME CHORES
lol just picked the veggies in my garden thought i was in asauna.yes
the upper air pattern is changing in land much more moisture in the air get out and work in it
but i dont see that dry air going anywhere st john hope always said that dry air was the roadblock on
move ment for astorm. anyone remember barry in 2001 in july it was much like this system got to 88 degrees
hit the dry air road block and skirted ne to fla panhandle. icant argue with st on the nhc just look at thier
records in the archive disscussions how much they waffle on these gulf storms and they did this with
geeorgr earl gordon charly ivan katrina rita and these were not weak sheered systems. but i agree that this will be
another bonny of 2004 weeeeeeeeeek. on the computermodels look who feeds them the info lol. and tony long one like yours sorry

tony i thought you were going to bed.....you need sleep tony goodnight the storm will be here when you get up....i suppose you dont see a low to the sw of it huh tony i thought you knew something about weather i guess i was wrong...goodnight

Ahh come on, Lefty has been drinking the Kool-Aid mixed by the NHC since yesterday... Whatever they say, he echos, as with most people on here. I think me and ST and one or two others were saying West since yesterday morning.

Don't come on here and say "well, we were all pretty much agreeing on West"... yadda yadda yadda...

I'm pumping my chest this morning, but I must say, I honestly don't know how long this WWD track is going to last.... gotta check a few things out.....

New blog Jeff is back.

Excerpt from FD, NWS CRP...

THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD #1 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONSENSUS SOLN IS
STILL CALLING FOR LANDFALL TO OCCUR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET...ECMWF
AND THE MM5 FROM FSU TRACK THE HIGHLY SHEARED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST SATL
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LOW LVL CENTER IS FURTHER WEST AT AROUND
23.61N...87.58W SPINNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A JOG IN THE FCST TO
THE LEFT MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT.

Hey Lefty are you going to chase any storms this year?

Whats up Hurricanechaser, Stormtop, and everyone else?

I know, I know, its sad that mothernature has such a grip on us. I know the rest of you guys blood pressure goes up during hurricane season just like mine. I enjoy the debating and the fact that im not the only one in this world that is a nerd about the weather........cheers to all of us.......I will drink something later this evening....

This storm would be great for beginner stormchasers.......so get in gear..........

Everything Lefty and Chaser have said is correct, and the 11am NHC discussion says the same thing. Alberto is in real bad shape from strong shear and dry air. The circulation has managed to become better defined overnight and this morning, but there is no significant convection anywhere near the center. With regard to the movement being a bit farther west, that's what happens when a storm has a very shallow core.

Hello Hawkeye.....All the regulars are returning....nice to here from you.......

Hey, Supposing this systems survives the hordes or dry air and the wind shear, The NHC has to be wrong on the track. I Don't see any compensation on the track for how far west the system really is. And if there is any the NHC just made it take a sharper turn toward the big bend. If you ask me... The're being lazy... I'de say it will land somwhere around apalachacola or panama city.

For something that is not supposed to affect this are it sure has wide reaching effects, check this out.


The NWS in N.O sounds little more concerned this morning in reference to TS Alberto issuing an updated discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE ZONES AND DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT ONGOING CHANGES AND TRENDS REGARDING NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 AND ITS AFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED NEAR 23.7N 88.3W...WITH SPIRAL BANDS THAT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOVEMENT BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 290/08KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED OF THIS EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND WELL
EAST...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING IN THE LIX CWA COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR CONVECTION AT SEA.
WILL BE UPDATING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT SOME POPS IN A GRADIENT FROM 10
PERCENT INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TRULY INDICATIVE OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT T.D. 1 APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING WESTWARD. WILL ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INTRODUCE THREAT OF STORMS AND SQUALLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

TS Alberto may just be a low-level swirl, but it is very large and impressive low-level swirl. A small area of deep convection is trying to form on the SW side, with the tops blowing off directly towards the low-level center.

It will be interesting to see if it can actually redevelop deep convection tonight, though I cannot recall seeing a system in the Gulf recover like that once it has become totally decoupled like Alberto is now.