First Tropical Depression has formed!!!
Since Dr. Masters is on vacation for the next few days, the other meteorologists here at Weather Underground will fill in for him as best as we can. For even more information on TD One, please see WCSC Hurricane Center's blog.
TD One has indeed formed and Figure 1 shows a ball of dense clouds spreading over western Cuba and a smaller ball of clouds just off the coast of Belize. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts and the storm has a poorly defined center.
The official NHC track (Figure 2) shows a general northeastward curve of TD One through the Gulf of Mexico, becoming Tropical Storm Alberto and then crossing the heart of Florida as a tropical storm.
Historically speaking (Figure 3), storms that have passed near where TD One currently lies generally move through the Gulf of Mexico while recurving towards Florida. There have been a few storms, however, that pinpointed western Florida and the Mississippi/Alabama area.
Let's wait a bit for the hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the depression later in the day. But, of immediate importance is the torrential rainfall that is possible for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Monstrous flash flooding and mudslides are certainly possible so residents should be aware.
Figure 1. Satellite image of TD One.
Figure 2. NHC track.
Figure 3. Historical tracks.