Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

randrewl, how can you possible know you have been through more storms than anybody!

think you should lighten up just a bit bro..... dragonfly i am sure, meant no harm or disrespect to anybody.... what i got out of his post, is that he enjoys photography..... NOT KILLER HURRICANES!

Here is the link for the NOAA NESDIS Western Atlantic satellite loop. Turn on HDW-High to see what I am talking about.

Here's what the NHC says about the blob east of the Bahamas in their 8:05 am EDT tropical weather discussion..." A
surface trough reflection extends from 27n63w SSW to near
21n71w. Scattered moderate/strong convection is within 150/180
nm either side of the surface trough from 21n-27n."........

The bark must be worse than the bite.

IKE - Agreed it isn't much at this time, but it does seem to be entering a area of low shear. We would have to see if it flairs up again (and again) like the last BB. Even then, it seems that shear will prevent the system from developing if the low-level feature moves west of the Bahamas.

Randrewl,

Before you make any assumption on the 2 lines that I wrote before. 1 you have been through more of anything than me. 2 you are more of an expert than me or 3 you have anything more than me. is just rediculous. And based on what I said. I was talking about lightning and not 5 on the safer simpson. and I WAS hoping for rain! because we need it didnt you there in ground zero?

It's gonna have to sit there and fester for a couple of days....then it might be able to go west with lower shear.

It's worth keeping an eye on. Not sure it has any other place to eventually go, but toward the west, with a strong high building in.

I think we are in for some good rain in any case...

Just a couple of quick posts, now I'm off to work...a lot of "bickering" going on here still ;(

Agree with WSI we should put the occasional disclaimer on this site, because it seems a lot of people lurk here, and some might not know any better. Trust the links and the reports posted here from the NWS and NHC, the rest is just mostly amateur prognosticating. This is obvious to most poesters here, but maybe not to some of the peole lurking...

IKE - Agreed it is worth keeping an eye on, it could turn out to be an area of potential development in the next few days.

Talk to everyone later (I'm late for work now)!

i say trust what you see on the satellite pic more than anything else....watch and learn

"i say trust what you see on the satellite pic more than anything else....watch and learn"

Not everyone understands what they see on a sat image.

Watch and Learn? For those who just see a mess on a sat frame..what exactly is they are supposed to learn..how arrogant are you?

For weather advisories and planning, I will check out NWS. For speculation, discussion, and to be involved in watching a system develop - I'll visit this blog.

Yes, I am fascinated by the weather and find it odd that I would have to explain that on a WEATHER blog ...this is like Group Therapy gone bad.

For now, I'll exit and return later when the blog is without the self-appointed monitors imposing their standards of a valid discussion.

Dragonfly - enjoy your weekend and the launch!

-Stormy

New Hurricane Names
Should the National Hurricane Center or World Meteorological Organization introduce the letters Q, U, X, Y, Z letters into the naming scheme or introduce surnames to storms?

Answer to Sunday's Question: Hurricane Katrina was more intense than Hurricane Camille. Intensity refers to central pressure. But Hurricane Camille winds were higher than Hurricane Katrina.

my blog

leave the answers at my blog or email me

Stormy2day, ignore the crap on here and stay. Many of us have good weather discussions on other blogs without all the "stuff" you see on here.

Any thoughts on the blob at 6N, 79W in the East Pacific? Shear looks really really low.

WSI –
Thanks. I would love to stay but have to get the boat and supplies ready. The pressure of being responsible for 3 other people and their safety while on an island is big – I have to think cautious without being paranoid. Paranoia has a tendency to kill the fun! In an attempt to balance, I look carefully at the official forecasts. I also understand that valid discussion happens here, on this blog. The type of discussion that often plays out with validity in an official forecast – official forecasts often don’t happen until all the pieces are in place.

I guess my point is that in collecting information – official data and discussion on this blog (both conservative and extreme speculation) are all valuable. When someone on this blog uses intimidation/slamming with another’s line of discussion that blogger is choosing the validity of that discussion for others.

PS – K8, when it comes to weather, I AM ignorant – if I knew it all, I wouldn’t be here.

You all have a fun and safe weekend.

Everyone....what are your thoughts about the fact that the tropical wave entering the Carb split in two? Looks like the portion near the western Bahamas is getting better organized. It there a surface low developing there?

Morning all.


Just got done adding a new page to StormJunkie.com. I hope this page will be very useful for the storm tracker. The rest of the site is great for learning and finding information, but when you need it quickly this is the place to get it.

StormJunkie.com Quick Links

I am going to update the SST comparison maps in my blog, then I am off to do some yard work. Will have to take some time to look at the tropics as I have been busy getting the new page up.

SJ

After continuously watching the wesatrd moving caribbean wave, it seems now like the wave split in 2. The northern part of the wave that is west of the Bahamas seems to be gettinf better organized this morning. The wave will be driven by the strong high pressure that s building to its east. If the storm will linger about those warm waters, and saty away from hispanola, it may have the potential to form into a tropical cyclone. If it continues moving WNW, it will be in an area that models are forecasting low sheer. This could cause a problem for south florida. Who agrees?

Junkie, your link is screwed up.

FLweather - Sounds just about right, the part of the wave moving west towards the Bahamas has escaped the shear farther south and looks like a seperate system now, in a more favorable environment. The low-level ridge is building towards the west. The high-level shear over FL and the immediate FL east coast is the big question: will it relax enough to allow the Bahamas system to develop this holiday weekend? Stay tuned, it's Deja Vu all over again.

NHC not very bullish in the system nearing the Bahamas at this time. It seems they think it will get caought up more in the trough to the east and miss the pocket of low shear just east of the Bahamas. From the Tropical Weather Outlook Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 30, 2006:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers extend from the southeastern Bahamas northeastward into the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles. Upper-level winds are strong in this area and development of this system is not anticipated as it moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Here is the the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006:

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N65W 30N81W SAT...THEN N OF AREA SUN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE S BAHAMAS TO 26N65W THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WEST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 28N71W SAT...THEN REACHING THE FLORIDA E COAST SAT NIGHT AND MOVING W OF AREA SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS EAST OF THE WAVE.