Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:32 PM GMT on July 23, 2006

The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.

Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters

Categories: Heat

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401. Skyepony (Mod) 1:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
agreed littefish, Shear will die down when Emilie moves on. She's hanging too close to land to develop into anything major. She's also pushed that low pressure area associated with the tropical wave into the gulf a little more. We'll see what happens with 98L once Emilie leaves, if she don't shear 98L to death 1st. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29354

402. ricderr 1:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
one has to love shear while it lasts...then have to hope the bermuda high does its job... Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069

403. nash28 1:25 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
I'm afraid the Bermuda High might be parking a little further south and west which sets up almost identical to 2004 when Florida got smacked from both sides. Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

404. flynns 1:40 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
Is anyone looking at the model (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS) runs for the Bermuda high? It's parking it waaay southwest, and -weakening- it, from like 1030-1040mb to, like, 1016mb. Anyone have comments on what-all this might mean?

406. weatherhunter 1:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
U people are crazy i mean u really need to think about what happens in Aus and Sep I mean the wind shear lowers and June and July are peak mounths for Dust so less Dust also there is areas of very warm water so I really really Dough This is going to be a inactive season

407. flynns 1:52 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
saddlegait: Well, my house was underneath it, if that's what you mean. Wikipedia knows all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

409. Cavin Rawlins 2:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
98L Update 25knots (30mph) 1011mbar Convection has increase this morning. Poorly organized. Over 20-30knots of shear, shear tendency (steady)(not decresing or increasing) SST are 28C and 30C in some spots. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

410. STORMTOP 2:07 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
wrong the bermuda high coupled with the azores high is setting up a lot further west this year protecting the east coast and increasing the threat to the yucatan and middle texas coasts....StormTop

411. weatherhunter 2:10 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
Then why does Noaa have a 69% chance of a Major landfall from NC SC and GA

412. STORMTOP 2:12 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
your guess is as good as mind..they said the same thing last year...who knows what they are thinking lol...

413. weatherhunter 2:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
I don't Know I still think we are to be hit by a major this year and if not Next We(NC) have not Officaly hit since like 2003 if not years below that

414. ricderr 2:18 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
HEY STORMY..... good morning to you......care to comment about the July tropical activity? Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069

415. FortLauderdaleNole 2:25 PM GMT on July 24, 2006
Jeff has posted a new blog ...

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