Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Late this afternoon, whatever MLC there was does appear to be inland.I Could not find any evidence of any LLC on surface obs or high-res visible images. That's not to say that a weak LLC might not form offshore along the lower Texas coast tomorrow then move quickly inland.
To me the Question is what will the NHC do with this? Remember Grace in 2003? Offshore platforms were reporting 35-45 kt winds in squalls and the NHC called it TS Grace. Recon investigated and could find no evidence of an LLC. It was just a tropical wave. So you never know what the NHC will call a TS (or TD).
I think it won't develop any LLC before the whole mess moves inland into Texas over the next 24 hours or so. But it DOES mean very heavy rain for the Texas coastal counties over the next few days. 5-10 inches may not be that uncommon. Looks like the focus will be southwest of Houston, from just east of Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi, maybe a tad farther south. Also, could be some heavy rain inland NW of Corpus Christi and west of Victoria.
The NHC cares more about warning people about 98L's flash flooding rains than seeing if they could name it TD 03.
Must commend them.
cheffjeff or whoever, I am not one of the global warmer fighters, thank you very much
WELL... I guess thats my cue!!!!!!!
Iam on of the global warming fighters, Thank you very much!!! LOL
Randrewl, I spent childhood up to high school there and hadn't been back in a long time until '04. A lot has changed!!
All the global warming advocates on here that now....somehow want to start quoting statistics from past years to try and convince me that this season is still above normal at this point? What were you all saying last year at this time about storm numbers and intensities and how it was the wave of the future? Give me a break!
Ahhhhhh, a loaded point! 1st of all I think we all know that it takes ALOT of variables to create a storm. Low wind shear(which we have not had) is probably biggest variable. We will see when the season is over cause when it does get fired up in late august, that's when we are going to see the global warming effects ala Wilma last year. I feel that there are going to be some really intense storms this year due to high sst's.
Confirmed by the NHC.
Fshhead, I didn't mean that in a derogatory manner at all. I have my opinions on it as well, have just kept them to myself.
No prob' I really don't offend easily so me on the other hand try to educate as many people as possible about global warming.
The 18z GFS brings this system across the islands, Puerto Rico, and then to a position near Eastern Cuba and the southern bahamas. At the same time strong ridging is building in along the east coast from eastern canada. If this pattern verifies then the cyclone would continue w/wnw and across Cuba or Florida and into the Gulf. A potentially very interesting situation is on the horizon over the next 7-15 days.....
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! keep this thing a way from the gulf i hop it dos not pass overe this www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/IASSP1.gif
if it dos that is not going to be vary goood news i hop that is not right but if it is we need to watch that where dos this be makeing land fall hurricane23 and how storng will it be if it pass overe the 2 eddys then it could be a vary storng cat 4 or low cat 5 hurricane any where from TX to a long the gulf cost and this it move overe the eddy and dos not move march then this could be come a vary stong cat 5 hurricane and a ch of passing the R storm mb of 895mb or the W storm of 882mb so KEEP THIS OUT OF THE GULF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
do i have any ponits her commet on this thank you too hirrcane23
KEEP THIS A WAY FROM THE GULF!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this will not be vary good new if it gons in the gulf
KEEP IT A WAY FROM THE GULF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry for the long commet evere one!
Fshhead...Oh no...Not you too?
LMAO you guys atart talking about it & I come a runnin'
Did anyone else hear that SETI "supposedly" made contact of some sort??????
I keep looking for info & found notta.
LOL
Tazmanian take a deep breath
heheheheh ok lol but this could be come a vary storng cat 5 hurricane if that move overe one of the 2 eddys in the gulf this watch and not to add on the gulf is vary hoot
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