Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I see all you have pretty good links to wind shear forecasts as well as
predictive models,
Can I get one of you nice stormys to post some links about wind shear, computer models etc... its heating up and i like to do some of my own researching and prediction THANKS
FLSilver...here is our web site. You will find all sorts of information there. (Pssstt...we have made it to page 1 on MSN search for tropical outlook!)
Emilia is weakening. (65mph)
And Daniel is no longer in the EPAC Area Of Concern.
It has enter the Central pacific Area Of Concern. (AOR)
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center of the United States National Weather Service is the official body responsible for tracking and issuing tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for the Central North Pacific Basin. The Central North Pacific Basin is the region of the Pacific Ocean that is north of the equator between 140 degrees west longitude and the International Date Line. In this area, the hurricane season lasts from June 1 through November 30.
Based in Honolulu, Hawai‘i, the CPHC is co-located with the National Weather Service's Honolulu forecast office on the campus of the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa. The Honolulu forecast office activates the CPHC when tropical cyclones form in, or move into, the Central Pacific region.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Wow, that was pretty short and sweet from Dr. Masters. You know it is dreadfully slow in the tropics when the heat gets more coverage than the tropics. Nothing even mentioned for the coming week or the Atlantic.
What a difference 1 1/2 hours make!
(sorry nash28, easy target :-)
I don't see a message board on your site. Link?
POSSSIBLE RECON 18:00z
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 24 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-055
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
18.0N 060.0W FOR 27/1800Z.
456, that next wave in your picture is way too far south, and unless it gains some latitude then it has no chance.
As for 98L, it has an outside chance of making TD, but it should be on land before it can pick up too much strength. I also noticed that there was no GFDL 00z or 06Z run for 98L, did they cancel the invest?
The central Atl wave is pretty interesting though. Very well defined circulation. As the good Dr said, this area will need to be watched if it fights off the dry air. Also of note is the CMC model and its forecast of this wave. I am not putting any credit in to the CMC yet due to it wanting to develop everything this year. That being said, keep an eye on that wave.
That's certainly not good for further development... but is great news for South Texas as they could sure use the rain.
I'm going to agree with EWX and CRP to an extent in that it's going to come ashore somewhere near BRO, then move NNW toward Alice and George West, then toward SAT, and then off to the NE with the bulk of the heavy rainfall along and just east of that track.
Viewing: 51 - 101
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