Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.
Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.
Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.
Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.
More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.
OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Central atlantic wave has 35%, the reason for that, wind shear is low, SST's are high. And another advantage of this wave that it only needs one thing, (convection). And as long as mother nature is alive, convection is not difficult to aquire.
Also there is barely any signifant dust infront of CATL wave.
Emilia is affecting 98L, and CATL wave is riding an upper level ridge. Which would provide excellent conditions.
I see the general characteristics of a forming tropical storm. It looks very classic to me.
Also, NHC Discussion says the center is over water......
My completely untrained eye, and gut feeling tells me a center of circulation will form ESE of Brownsville.
Weather456....Sorry.....the Drewl scale says only 10% chance for BOC system....CATL hasn't made it to Hispaniola yet.....forecast to be determined.
First thing, the computer model, CMC, has that track for the CATL wave. I dont use computer models. Computers were made by man, so its no diffrent if they are there or not.
Second thing, the NHC brings this into the E Caribbean Sea. Sea the lastest discussion.
Third, my probalities is based on the SST, DUST and Wind shear, those that will affect the system.
And last, If the system dont develop, I dont really care, because it would be good for people living in the caribbean and Mexico/Texas. So if I'm wrong, It's all good.
Latest WV show a decrease in convection - btw. It's going to wain and start to look anemic again, then fire back up in the late night/early morning hours. The NW track still seems likely with little to no chance of further development...
And the convection is becoming more concentrated.
Is there an explanation to the type of satellite, like what RGB stands for.
HAS MINIMAL SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE 0H FRAME...AND CONTINUES THE
MIDLEVEL WAVE INTO THE BIG BEND REGION...WITH RAINFALL MORE
ORIENTED TOWARD WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE TYPE CONVECTION. NAM...ON THE
OTHER HAND...HAS BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...AND MOVES THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ON A MORE NNW COURSE
TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. AND STRENGTHEN IT MORE TOWARD A
CUTOFF LOW FEATURE. OTHER MODELS SEEM TO GO ALONG MORE WITH THE
GFS ON INTENSITY AND FEATURES...AND GO ALONG WITH THE NAM MORE FOR
TRACKING. PUTTING ALL THIS TOGETHER...THINK THE SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE NW TOWARD THE VALLEY...ROUGHLY CROSSING OVER MFE...WHILE
THE MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES NEAR SAT. <=== Is that not what I was hinting at earlier???
If the water temps keep coming up, there may be storms despite adverse shear conditions. Perhaps not dreaded monsters but storms nonetheless. The thing in the western Gulf is going to do something.
not only that but we could have low cloud storms, like epsilon. The reason why Epsilon, was able to strenghten in face of wind shear, is because his clouds were not high in altitude, so upper level shear did not affected it.
Middle level shear was the one that would of affected it.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.
CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT
APPEARS THAT SOME STABLE AIR NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT.
...Plan on updating the hazardous weather outlook this afternoon to boost rainfall
totals to read something like 1 to 3 inches this afternoon and tonight...3 to 5 inches on Tuesday and another 3 to 5 inches on Wednesday. Locations around where the best dynamics end up setting up (low level convergence...highest precipitable water airmass and training cells)...have the potential to receive at least 5 to 10 inches of rain with this event. It is possible that these high amounts could end up near the coast or even offshore as has happened with a couple previous events this year. It is just too early at this point to tell exactly where the worst will be.
This is exactly what happened in early July here...another northward moving tropical disturbance in the BOC seemed to hit a wall just offshore and dumped tons of rain on the northern GOM and the "100% chance" of rain that had been forecasted never materialized. I will note, however, that this wave looks a lot healthier and has maintained its quasi-organization much better than the early July disturbance.
This is part a dicussion from Lake Charles...
FINALLY, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER (OR TROPICAL WAVE) ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR TAMPICO."
ABNT20 KNHC 242101
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW VERY NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND LA PESCA...CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
so we finish with 98L, next.....
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242101
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW VERY NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND LA PESCA...CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
Here is someting EWX mentions that no one seems to be interested in but I think will likely play a role in putting the 'bullseye' for heavy rain right over SCentral TX near the SAT area:
LOW ALOFT AROUND 500 TO 250 HPA HAS FORMED NEAR THE AREA...FROM S/W TROFS LEFT IN WAKE OF LARGE SCALE 500 HPA TROF OVER EASTERN U.S. FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LOW LINKING WITH WEATHER PATTERNS TO THE SOUTH...AND CAUSING 500 TO 250 HPA LOW
ALOFT TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN VIEW OF LIGHT WIND FIELD ALOFT...THESE FEATURES WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST
Guys at the very worst, we could see a weak LLC form offshore and the NHC call this a TD or sheared, weak TS in the next 24-36 hours before it's completely inland in Texas. The real threat is from heavy rain, not wind. Regardless of whether it develops, it'll be producing very heavy rain along the TX coast. And even if it is called a TD or weak TS, it won't have any significant wind outside of gusts in squalls which are already there.
The NHC continues to be very cautious, not dismissing any chance of development until they're 100% sure it won't develop. That's their job to keep the general public alert to the smallest chance of development. Adrian
well there we go...the people with the big computers and atmospheric sciences degrees weighed in. I'll go with that.
Bret
Cindy
Gert
Jose
Ophelia
Stan
href="http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200520.asp" target="_blank">Tammy
Beta
all last year. Granted, most of these were minor storms, but food for thought.
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