Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

An early and vicious tornado season
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:22 PM GMT on March 05, 2007 +2
It's been a vicious and early tornado season in the U.S. this year. Already, two major tornado outbreaks have killed 20 people each--the Central Florida tornado event of February 2, and last week's swarm of at least 35 tornadoes in the Southeast. In addition, an outbreak of 10 tornadoes hit the deep south February 12, killing one person in New Orleans. Only one year in recorded history has had more tornado deaths so early in the year--1949, when a tornado in Warren, Arkansas killed 55 people on January 3. The 45 fatalities in 2007 is close to the 3-year average of 46 fatalities observed for the entire year, and the 151 tornadoes observed so far in 2007 is about double what is usually observed.

Damage surveys are still being done of the devastation from last week's tornado outbreak, but it appears that five strong EF-3 tornadoes with winds of 136-165 mph touched down. Three of these twisters were killers, including the tornado that hit Enterprise, Alabama, killing eight students at the high school. The two EF-3 tornadoes observed during the Central Florida tornado event bring this year's total of EF-3 twisters to seven, a very high number of these strong tornadoes for so early in the year. What's causing such an early and severe tornado season? Well, the Central Florida outbreak can be blamed on El Niño. The other two outbreaks occurred when El Niño was suffering a rapid demise, so we'll have to blame them on unusually early spring-like weather in the U.S. With the peak months of tornado season still to come, let's hope for an unusally early end to tornado season as well!

Jeff Masters
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151. hurricane23 2:01 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Morning everyone...
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
152. Patrap 2:05 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
The Worst News for Lower 9th ward and ST. Bernard Parish in Se Louisiana.//////\\\\\\Wednesday, March 07, 2007
By Karen Turni Bazile,Times Picayune

The Army Corps of Engineers has no plans to elevate the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet levee on the Orleans Parish side of the Bayou Bienvenue locks, and St. Bernard officials say that's bad news for parish residents and those in the Lower 9th Ward.

St. Bernard officials have generally praised the corps' quick-footed effort to rebuild the devastated levees along the Gulf Outlet to a height of 20 feet in St. Bernard after Hurricane Katrina. But several said they were caught off guard and disappointed by news they learned at Tuesday's Parish Council meeting that there are no plans to elevate the levee between the bayou and the concrete wall on the Industrial Canal, leaving a height gap of as much as 9 feet.

That stretch of earthen levee in Orleans Parish was authorized to stand at 14 feet but has subsided to a height of 11 and 12 feet in many places, said Chris Gilmore, the corps' senior project manager for levees and floodwalls in St. Bernard Parish. The levee on the St. Bernard side was authorized for a height of 17.5 feet and was overbuilt to 20 feet to allow for subsidence.

Gilmore, who regularly updates the council on corps projects, said the corps doesn't want to spend money raising that stretch of the levee because it won't be needed once floodgates authorized by Congress are built in the next few years. The levees will lie inside the gates.

After the flood-control system failed catastrophically during Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration gave the corps a twofold mandate for restoring protection to the metro area: rebuild by June 1, 2006, the destroyed or damaged sections of the system to the heights authorized by Congress when it passed the Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection Plan in 1965; and have the rest of the system up to its authorized height by Sept. 1, 2007.

However, the situation with this section of levee is unique, Gilmore said, because the plan doesn't call for it to be elevated to its authorized height of 14 feet because of the proposed gates.

The gates' locations are still being determined, but Gilmore said leaving the levees at a lower height on the Orleans side of Bayou Bienvenue increases the vulnerability to flooding for St. Bernard and the Lower 9th Ward until the gates are built. He said the issue is being studied, and some elevation work could be authorized on an interim basis since the gates won't be completed until 2010.

St. Bernard Parish Council Chairman Joey DiFatta said he and other parish officials plan to voice their concerns at a special meeting today of the East Louisiana Flood Protection Authority Levee Board, the newly consolidated east bank levee board, in the St. Bernard Parish Council chambers. "What burns me up is that they rebuilt our levees (in St. Bernard) in six or seven months, but they have no construction plans for that (Orleans) portion of the levee in the works. I will be here screaming and hollering" at the meeting, DiFatta said.

. . . . . . .

Karen Turni Bazile can be reached at kturni@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3321
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
153. Patrap 2:09 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
The area the below article refrences is here..the lower left side of Lake Borgne where the Funnel comes into the 9th Ward and ST.Bernard ..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
154. hurricane23 2:10 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Indeed there will be alot of talk in the next couple of months as SST'S are running somewhat above average In parts of the caribbean to the african coast.

Here is another look at current SST'S in the atlantic basin.

(Sea Surface Temps Gulf/Caribbean)



(Sea Surface Temps Atlantic Basin)

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
155. ricderr 2:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Pat......once the gats are built..will that really protect it..and is the gates project on schedule?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
156. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
The water as it arrived in ST Bernard from Katrina by Security Cam at FOX transmitter..retrieved weeks after the storm..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
157. Patrap 2:16 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
In that area..the GAtes proposed wont be Completed till 2010. They want the Corps to Raise the levees their to 18ft as was done downriver...But they now arent to do it.That keeps St. Bernard and Lower 9th in Jeopordy still.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
158. ricderr 2:18 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
what's the cost of rasing the levees pat..any idea?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
159. Patrap 2:20 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Task Force Guardian from Earliest Conception assessments.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
160. Patrap 2:22 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
The Corps Of Engineers TAsk Force Guardian Website. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
161. Patrap 2:26 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Dirts cheap ric..its the Corps..not doing what the Local Engineers and Local navigational experts tell them to.They Most High and Mighty in their own lil minds.Plus,..after the work they did for Decades Failed miserably...theyve come around to more local influences of the Engineering.But the Buracrecy with them is Immemse and decades old.Nothing moves fast..cept now.In critical areas.They will build the levee up there.They just need to be one-upped and the pressures on already.They not the brightest PR guys the Corps...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
162. ricderr 2:28 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
ok...no dollr numbers...i was just trying to see....how big a bet we're talking about..
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163. Patrap 2:29 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Money was appropriated a Year ago..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
164. ricderr 2:30 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
ok...dirt cheap....is that a bit of double entendre?...LOL....strange.....think about it.....they've got the approval....they've got the funds....and they've got the mandate..you'ld think with that...someone in management..would have a brother with a backhoe that they could give the job to and be able to skim some profit
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
165. Patrap 2:33 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
That dont happen in Reality.The GAO sees to that.Too much cnn in yer head still. LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
166. Patrap 2:34 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Although HAlliburton has a Big Dirt/mudlogger interest.But that all offshore.They not in the Land Levee Buissness.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
167. ricderr 2:35 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
do you remember back in the history books....our country was floundering money wise..some great depression or other...and a president said....i'm gonna put people to work...and dams were built..and roads were built...what ever happeded to that kind of goverment spirit?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
168. Patrap 2:36 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
This story is where all the FAcets of the Diamond come together ric.GW..SSts..Cat3-5 threat...er what else..west-casting...ERCs..all the juciy parts of the Puzzle..here..and Galveston.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
169. ricderr 2:36 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
They not in the Land Levee Buissness.


and thus the reason nothing gets done..you aint got some influence to peddle..the project just isn't as important
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
170. Patrap 2:36 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Faded in the 60s ric.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
171. ricderr 2:40 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
pat....there's also a correlation between military spending and public works
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
172. Patrap 2:41 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
They weird folks the Corps.Really are.SOme 50% of their workforce..educated people they say..lost their Homes here.And they still stiff the Media, refuse calls..and overall are a pain in the But t.But 86,000 lawsuits Filed against them .last week have them very Jumpy.Fed judge open the door to suits and Class-actions for those afffected from their poor designs and contracted work.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
173. Patrap 2:44 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Thats a first in U. S. History.All the suit forms had to be in by 4pm last Weds.You should have seen the cars lined up.They had 40 people out there collecting them..SOme people even taping the forms being sent in as they were collected.Its a freak show,US citizens get to SUe the Federal Levee Builders..LOL.Only here Dude.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
174. Patrap 2:46 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Personally.. I hear They have their Lumps in their throats with the Newest Forecast out for the season.I hope they kick it up a notch.St Bernard and areas in the east are still only sparsely back..maybe 20percent.Another blow..well.Lets not consider that today.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
175. ricderr 2:47 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
but in an evil twisted way......it had to be fun to watch
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
176. Patrap 2:48 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
One day..we will meet and Ill tell ya a few Post storm stories before I got out Sept 16th..LOL.Bring wiskey and eats.Itll be a while.LOL!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
177. Patrap 2:50 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Im off to find a seafood burner and some Propane.Going to Boil some crawfish come Sat.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111390
178. lightning10 3:01 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
... It is now the driest rain season to date in downtown Los
Angeles...

This rain season... or water year... is currently the driest to date
in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877. Since the
beginning of the water year... which began July 1 2006... downtown Los
Angeles has received just 2.42 inches of rain. That is a whopping
9.13 inches below the normal precipitation to date... which is 11.55
inches. To date... downtown Los Angeles has received only 21 percent
of normal rainfall. If downtown Los Angeles receives less than 2.00
inches of rain from now through June 30th... this will be the driest
rain season ever.


March... with an average rainfall of 3.14 inches... can be a very
wet month in Los Angeles... as in 1884 when 12.36 inches of rain
fell. However... there do not appear to be any major storms in
sight for Southern California. After March... average rainfall
drops off sharply in April to 0.83 inches... then to 0.31 inches
in may... and just 0.06 inches in June. Normal seasonal rainfall at
downtown Los Angeles is 15.14 inches.

Seasons with the least rainfall from July 1st through March 6th
are listed below.

Rank water precip % of normal final seasonal
season 7/1-3/6 thru 3/6 rainfall
(7/1-6/30)

1... ... ... (2006-07)... ... 2.42"... ... ..21%... ... ... ... ..????"
2... ... ... (1898-99)... ... 2.98"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..5.59"
3... ... ... (1923-24)... ... 3.06"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..6.67"
4... ... ... (1947-48)... ... 3.21"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..7.22"
5... ... ... (1903-04)... ... 3.25"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..8.72"
6... ... ... (1962-63)... ... 3.52"... ... ..30%... ... ... ... ..8.38"
7... ... ... (1960-61)... ... 3.99"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.85"
8... ... ... (2001-02)... ... 4.02"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.42" *
9... ... ... (1924-25)... ... 4.05"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..7.94"
10... ... ..(1998-99)... ... 4.28"... ... ..37%... ... ... ... ..9.08"


* driest season ever in Los Angeles

During the driest season ever... the 2001-2002 season...
precipitation from July 1st 2001 to March 6th 2002 was 4.02
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629
179. ricderr 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
oh great....whiskey...and after two shots...i'm a gonner...so i won't remember a thing....how about we do whiskey and coke....i'll whiff the whiskey and drink the coke...and...grab some vegetarian crawfish
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
180. franck 3:46 PM GMT on March 07, 2007    
Redevelopment projects like what is needed in New Orleans can't take place unless developer loans can be insured. One reads about this or that developer taking the reigns in New Orleans. None of these developers have that kind of capital. They work with giant loans, which must be underwritten, and the risk of New Orleans going under again is too great for insurers.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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