Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Hurricanefcast no problem...

Is that current 23?

All of the storms are training, which means that some places are getting their 3rd or 4th tornado warning today!

Yes SJ.

at least with hurricanes we get several days warning

No kidding kman!

Is this tornado season more active than normal and if so is there any correlation with la Nina ?

Guys fixed the image...Now the timestamp is added so the time is showing.

The shear should push away in front of the low. You can really see it churning over NC.

The WV loop gives a good image of the low diving down

Link

Here is a differerent view..popping everywere.

23

scary stuff

Shows well on this WV also.

Im back guys HI h23 n all. Just a quick question... Does an active tornado season have any thing to do with what type hurricane season there maybe?

STL

Thanks. Very interesting.

SH

If an active tornado season is associated with la Nina and La Nina is associated with an active hurricane season then I guess you have your answer

But I am sure someone knows of an active tornado season during an El Nino year LOL

Stormhank- An active tornado season can sometimes be attributed to a developing la niņa, which is basically the opposite of an el niņo, which is what we had last summer and during winter. La niņa is, fundamentally, the cooling of the pacific ocean. Along with the cooling of the pacific ocean we can expect to see below average wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. Last year the High wind shear was the main factor for a "normal" hurricane season. This year we should definitely see an above average hurricane season, especially since a light to moderate la niņa is developing. Less wind shear = less resistance for a developing thunderstorm, disturbance, depression, tropical storm, and eventual hurricane. So yes this sometimes can be attributed to an active hurricane season, however there is usually no DIRECT correlation between an active hurricane and tornado season, it's merely the factors that produce the active season.

Link
Woohoo...00 GFS started downloading!!!

thanks KM....I'll ask this same question again on November 30th.. LOL

hey bama n micheal how r you tonight?

Total rainfall

OH and H23.. Nice animated graphic of that tornado outbreak, Wow! It's incredible isn't it? I feel bad for the many people who are about to be affected by those storms. That's just amazing, it's been awhile since i've seen this severe of an outbreak.

The South Dakota radar signature looks just like a row of monster funnels.

doing well....waiting to see how these ole models are coming out.

Thats disturbing, Aberdeen South Dekota has had 5 inches of rain today, they have had 4 straight hours of strong storms over them.

Here's the weird part, the temp started at 62 and has risen to 69 during these heavy storms!

Thats absolutely unheard of up there, heck its not common to see temps that warm here after 4 hours of thunderstorms straight accept during the tropical rain season.


In other words, semi - tropical convection is affecting areas as far north as south Dekota, incredible stuff folks...

Sorry...that's Kansas.

i am watching cnn right now and the video Greensburg has been hit by a EF5 95% of Greensburg is gone you most turn it too cnn NOW 95% of Greensburg is gone

These storms have absolutely amazing moisture content for this far north, which increases their violent and eratic potential.

The it goes around here in Florida, the more tropical and soupy the air is and the more moisture laden the storms are, the higher the risk of a eratic behavior and explosive development.

Also makes things more condusive for tornados under the dynamics out there.

AH

So you can have high tornadic activity in EITHER an El Nino or La Nina year just that the geographical location is different.

When the tornadic activity is located in the central US ( where it has been happening this year ) that means la Nina is in play and we can therefore expect heightened hurricane activity. Hope I got that right

Jedkinds, I think North Dakota will be getting a share in this too.

This is extremely dangerous weather out there tonight folks, this has me worried about tonight after what happened in Kansas last night,

Well I am out of here for tonight. It will be intersting to see how the E Coast low plays out tomorrow.

Good night all and thanks for the exchange of ideas and information

The 00ZGFS says the the low currently in East Central PA is the one to develop!

The visible sunset picture off GOES West is a bit sobering.



If you can't see the link for some reason, here are the direct addresses:

http://www.mirawebdesign.com/temp/midwest-tornado-outbreak-05-06-2007-00-45.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/cp/loop-vis.html

The new GFS model runs are out for May 6 at 0000 utc

Link

see my 3:17 post for the WV loop of that low diving down

Kman- Yeah, usually this is true. Less wind shear, warmer SST's near the caribbean, and above average moisture in the Atlantic tend to lead to an Above Average hurricane season. I would like to point out, however, that 2005, with 27 Storms, was neither an El Niņo nor a La Niņa event. It just goes to show, anything can happen.

00Z GFS 54 hr...Link

Hi all... what a horrible mess in the Midwest last night and today, especially in Kansas. I'm trying to post a link here to the NWS radar out of Wichita, which I've never done, so it might not work. But I was just wondering, do any of you see the first storm in this latest train actually spinning around, like a mini hurricane? And the second one almost looks it has a eye, or an anti-eye, in this case... both look to be very bad storms, whatever the case...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ict&overlays=11101111&product=NCR&loop=yes

It helps if you can zoom in and click off the warning boxes...

Jo

HCFC

Too true. Every year has some quirk to it