Another wild night in Tornado Alley
The sirens sounded two more times in tornado-ravaged Greensburg, Kansas last night, as two more twisters tore through the county. However, both tornadoes missed populated areas, as did most of the approximately 75 tornadoes that touched down yesterday. The action should quiet down considerably today; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Kansas and Nebraska under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. Sweetwater, Oklahoma received significant damage from a tornado last night, and we've saved 300 Kb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado.
It will take a long time for Greensburg to recover from Friday's tornado. To get an idea of the scale of devastation, see the aerial photos posted by the Wichita Eagle. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The nine deaths from the tornado bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 68 so far this year, two more than the toll for all of last year.
We've saved some extraordinary 1 Mb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado. I asked wunderground meteorologist and tornado expert Rob Carver to comment on what's going on in the animations, and here was his analysis:
This was likely an example of cyclic mesocyclogenesis. In a nutshell, the rear-flank downdraft surges out, wraps around and occludes the mesocyclone (Meso A for short). Meso A then veers to the left and dies, this is why tornado family members curve to the left as they dissipate. While Meso A is dying, a new meso spins up and becomes the dominant meso. Now, while I've seen plenty of simulated cyclic cases where the hook retreats when Meso A occludes, I don't think I've seen anything as dramatic.
Figure 1. Radar image of the storm that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007, showing the clearly defined hook echo associated with the twister.
Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8pm EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. We'll have a lot of time to watch the storm, as it is expected to meander offshore for five days and gradually weaken. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. The models are hinting that the storm could remain over water long enough for this to happen, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming late this week at about 20%.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts. Stormchaser Dan Robinson posted some video stills of the Greensburg tornado.
Jeff Masters
A big storm moved in on the 3rd. Wasn't as bad as it looked though.
Reader Comments
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We could use some in The NW Caribbean
Some of what is going through Miami Dade is already pushing off the S Coast of Fla through the keys
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I could hear either hard rain or hail hitting the roof. Not fun.
Power was going on and off with very gusty winds i would say anywere between 35-50mph.Its passed us now so look forward to quite evening.Wife was freaking out.
Bamatracker at 1:27 AM GMT on May 07, 2007.
no tunnels cyclone!!! lets not go down that road
I only mentioned them because I am pretty sure they can also prevent severe weather and tornados from forming over Florida and perhaps the Midwest and Southeast.
That's retarded.I'll take the whole 'weakening hurricanes' thing seriously...but to say that your TUNNELS could've stopped the life threatening...and in several cases absolutely devastating severe weather is stupid(because there's no logical reason why it should) and also cold.
I'm looking at that blob of showers that's headed down the FL peninsula. It looks like we are going to get hammered by some heavy rain before the night is out . . .
We sure could use some . . .
Max retired last year. Proenza is the new director
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hurricaneman 23??
HUH ?
Actually, I usually load them all, unless I've read most of them already. It's too much of a hassle to keep pressing NEXT when I can just scroll down as I read.
Just about the only time I use the 50 comments setting is when the blog is well over 1000 comments and I have already read more than 85% of them.
The picture that's stretching the blog, btw, is the one showing the Greenburg F-5 tornado. Perhaps the person who posted it could go back and edit the size?
Odd though. I guess someone likes your handle LOL
After observing the models the last couple days, it looks as if the western Atlantic low will initially strengthen via baroclinic forcing. Over time, the low will begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. However, upper level conditions cannot sustain a tropical (warm core) low at this time. So the more tropical it becomes, the more it will weaken. The models also show the low drifting west into the southeast USA underneath a high to the north. It would be nice if the southeast could get some rain (drought), but the low will likely be too weak to bring any torrential rainfall by the time it moves inland. All that being said, the low should be monitored for hybrid development over the next few days.
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