Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

confirms my suspicions...*poof*

Sorry FlBoy! I think this thing is going to Pop tonight! Very Soon! I had my doubts but, looking very good right now! Several Hours before the maximum but, remember, you have the MJO and the ITCZ in the area now!

would that dry air over florida move over carribbean pull area ne or kill area sw carribbean you can see wv that dry trying move into nw carribbean on loop of wv

WV shows it's reaching high FLBOY! Due Time!

COC has been covered for a long time now and by the looks of Satalite is under little or no shear! No surface low? I find it hard to believe!

there aint sheet goin on down there

Good morning....

Seems like our area down in the caribbean remains rather disorganized at development if any should be slow.

Good morning to all. the sw caribbean disturbance seemed to have held its own during the night. the sydtem looks s little bit more organise this morning and is on the verge of becoming an invest. the system is under 5-10 knots wind shesr at the moment,and has a good chance of forming into a TD today. as usual the NHC always takes its time to make a positive take on this system.

When looking at the latest GFDL model run for Tropical Depression 1E it shows another system developing closer to Mexico. It moves this system into Mexico. The GFS and at one point the ECMWF were predicting a storm to do something like this and than move over Florida. If this solution does play out this could be beneficial rain for Florida.

Let the season begin

06Z NAM brings a 1008mb low into the NW caribbean.

shear is going to rip it apart (actually maybe not, the forecast looks like it might be in its favor)

I guess these tropical disturbances didn't get the memo that they need to go give Florida some good amount of rain.

I think Florida will see more than its fair share come the end of the season

Yikes! Got my Storm 2007 book this morning from the Palm Beach Post. It looks like Palm Beach has a 7% chance of a storm, 2% chance of a hurricane and about .6% chance of a major.
Broward County has a 4% chance of a storm, 1% chance of a hurricane and .4% chance of a major.

And in Miami Dade county...well if you live there you won't like this. There is an almost 30% chance for a Tropical Storm, a 9% chance for a hurricane, and a 2.4% chance for a major.

This forecast was made by the Colorado State University forecast team. It was made by dividing storm landfalls by years and adding in this season's prediction.

florida and the east coast will probably see the majority of the larger landfalls

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.

Yikes! Got my Storm 2007 book this morning from the Palm Beach Post. It looks like Palm Beach has a 7% chance of a storm, 2% chance of a hurricane and about .6% chance of a major.
Broward County has a 4% chance of a storm, 1% chance of a hurricane and .4% chance of a major.

And in Miami Dade county...well if you live there you won't like this. There is an almost 30% chance for a Tropical Storm, a 9% chance for a hurricane, and a 2.4% chance for a major.

This forecast was made by the Colorado State University forecast team. It was made by dividing storm landfalls by years and adding in this season's prediction.


Hey WPBHurricane05 i got my newpaper down here in my miami yesterday and read that we get ours on wednesday or is it today.Thanks adrian

I'm not sure adrian. I think I have a different newspaper than you.

did anybody else happen to have the displeasure of seeing the disgusting content posted yesterday? I hope that guy was banned from here.

I did Cane. That was very disgusting.

yea, that definitely takes the cake as the worst ive seen on here

lol have we all pretty much caught on that StormTop is now StormKat? must've gotten banned and made a new account.

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:50 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.

I'm not sure adrian. I think I have a different newspaper than you.

This article your talking about was written by colorado state can you post a link?

It was in the Palm Beach Post Storm 2007, in todays paper from the Palm Beach Post. You should be able to pick it up at a Publix or Winn Dixie.

Hurricane Season 2007
Times-Picayune Special Edition..Link

Morning all ☺

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 11:56 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.
lol have we all pretty much caught on that StormTop is now StormKat? must've gotten banned and made a new account.

Don't think this is the case Story. Go check the blogs. StormTop has not been banned from what I can tell so I doubt he is StormKat. Could be wrong though, but I do know ST has not been banned.

CSU forecast. Go to the 2007 forecast schedule.

View cover graphic pdf Link

Thanks patrap.

Thought that was the link to the palm beach post but its from Nola.Thanks anyway.

GFDL brings TD 01-E down to a TS with winds at 61kts (70mph) and 994 hPa. That is a big change from the 960 hPa CAT 3 it was predicting..lol

Hello 23,.. its Sunday morning roundup.

TD 1 is not going to be a problem for any landmass so nothing significant concerning this system.Track basically shoots it striaght west.

And into cooler water so we can forget about it.

Latest CMC still want to form something in the Carib and bring it up the E coast clipping the OBX at about the 144+hr time frame. Looks to develop a little pocket of low shear, but I don't think it will be enough to allow anything to form. Shear around this supposed system will be too high, IMHO.

Did notice that the CMC, GFS, and Nogaps all appear to show the shear lifting N towards the end of the run. Also show the shear dying off some in the E Carib.

Who runs the cmc? Does anyone know its historical accuracy?

Welcome pcs, that is the Canadian model. Sometimes good, sometimes not, but it is one of the major models.

It definately has something hitting the outer banks after it brushes s fla.

Heres last night reports when i went on realweather on flight simulator with a hurricane hunter with radar ects on the blob on the carribean

Maxium winds i found was 17 mph
Pressure couldent find it
Rain Moderated/heavy
Thunderstorm/ isolated
Light Turbulance ;)
Circulation: well i found a broad circulation with some thunderstorms there but again wasent good spining but when i was going i saw like another center trying to form not sure..
This is the report