Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earlier this afternoon I suggested that the NHC would probably drop the low in the SW Caribbean due to the very poor sat presentation in that area. That has now happened so we are back to the waiting game to see what else materialises
This from the 8:05 discussion tonight

A sfc trough
remains between ern Cuba and Panama along 20n78w 11n79w. A weak
low may be readded along this trough at 0000 UTC with the low
level cyclonic circulation noted near 14n79w

wooohoo....time for blob watching!!

many models never were interested in the Caribbean blob to begin with....

the models were just being stuck up!

For the panhandle of Florida in the first week of June, climatology is probably about as good as what the global models show. So I'll go with upper 80's, low 90's slight chance of afternoon thundershowers.

...responding to previous question.

bama...the models were so bored they decided to spin up spaghetti meatballs..LOL....One jokester had a hurricane off the NC coast!

Posted By: Alec at 1:59 AM GMT on May 29, 2007.

many models never were interested in the Caribbean blob to begin with....

True but many of them did call for something to form down there. It just did not pan out the way they predicted

hmmm...surprise i didnt hear about that on the blog earlier...seems like someone would have been all over that.

Hey StormW right back...good to see everyone.

Orginally from S.CA - (san diego - where if we had a rain shower it was like a gift from heaven) to here - in S. GA where when we moved here it rained for three weeks straight non-stop every day with no relief. I thought it was a sign from GOD that I shouldn't have moved to the south...

The rain stopped that year after that - slight showers moving in during the evening hours but nothing like it was - we have fires not too far away that are wicked. I don't know what the future brings but I would love to hear the tree frogs croak so loud again that you can't talk on the phone outside - that seems to have subsided over the last year. I don't care about the hurricanes or the tropical depressions - love watching them come across and hope for the rainfall - not the terrible stuff that comes with them...

i would just like to have some decent weather without the flooding and terrible winds. :)

But like I said "nothing is written in stone".....LOL

Posted By: Alec at 2:07 AM GMT on May 29, 2007.

But like I said "nothing is written in stone".....LOL

According to Stormtop it is LOL

kman.....even that guy isnt written in stone!LOL

hey folks, don't want to spoil your fun but May is pretty early to be obsessing about Caribbean blobs..

We have ALVIN! Check NRL.

Heck no snowboy!!! never too early to blob watch!!! LOL

Posted By: snowboy at 10:11 PM EDT on May 28, 2007.

hey folks, don't want to spoil your fun but May is pretty early to be obsessing about Caribbean blobs..

Thats what Ive been trying to tell the forum......But, hey if you want a stormtop lecture, makes for some interesting fun...LOL

The fact that we actually had something to talk about in the Caribbean this early is interesting in and of itself. Typically the start of the season is very slow until about mid to late July, even in years with a June storm.

Yeah...I get excited when a little cu deck forms in the loop current....LOL

hey at least we are paying attention and getting ready. Lots of folks dont really know whats going until they are under a warning.

Won't be much action over the loop current for a long time with shear and water temps where they are in the GOM

well, you're always in the loop here.....every burst of convection is closely monitored!

hehe....the local news is showing katrina pictures.

bama.....good example...tropics are sooooooooo boring the media has to relive those memories....

Posted By: Alec at 1:23 AM GMT on May 29, 2007.

Are there any big rivers in the East Tx area? because I can remember when FL had flooding problems, the rivers would crest after the event...


Not necessarily 'big rivers' but there are plenty of rivers that will crest during periods of excessive rainfalls...this in turn may affect communities nearby...What's up Alec? Long time since we've talked...

Now the QS pass is showing a circulation near 81W !. Must be very weak

img src=http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img/quikscatcur_ds.map?441,227 width=640 height=480>

yo randyman......Im on break....working at NWS hoping to get experience in the field.....how's the weather where you are?

well I'm out of here for tonight.
C U all tomorrow

I live in Pinecrest, and we were out for 2 and a half weeks

Here is the monthly rainfall archive for South Florida! Little note, that article and what it speaks of is South Flordia only! I did some searching and it looks pretty darn accurate! Notice the dry counties in 2005 and 2006 and where storms hit!

Looks like our Caribbean blob has vanished. He's playing Hide-and-Seek.

Latest and Gentleman, Alvin has entered the building. Sounds threatening huh? Lol.

I live in Northern Broward...fortunately only 1 week. Had to wait 5 months for cable. grrrrrrr...lol

There are already methods that can build cost effective buildings that will withstand hurricanes and some tornados. They are also energy efficient.

I was in New Orleans recently and the convention center I was in had the most over reinforced roof trusses I have ever seen outside of a military installation. Nobody is going to want to spend for that kind of construction. Domes provide a support free interior space and are ideal for large rooms like gyms, but with just normal construction practice can be made proof against both hurricanes and tornados owing to both their inherent strength and their shape which does not give the wind as much bite. The other thing about a dome is that the part of the structure that is key to it's strength is low to the ground and most of the time is on the ground and therefore very difficult to damage.

http://www.dometech.com/architectural/commercial.html

Another note! If you look at 2007 dry counties and compare it to the UCF probabilies, it looks like UCF may be running with this theory!

Also of note! I typed in UCF Hurricane Predictions and it listed fellow WU Blogger Skyepony as the second source, congrats!

Ever heard of SIPS Kell? It is the after Katrina Home able to withstand 500mph winds and 8000 sq ft home can be built in 6 months! We're going to be installing cabinetry in many of the new SIPS homes here in Florida!

Yes, concrete and steel from here out, and no blunt faces. When the first high rise goes from a tornado or hurricane, that type of building will come to a dead stop..thankfully.

There's hardly anything out there right now, rather disappointing. Nothing significant with development potential.


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500 mph winds thats bullcrap stupid pridefull disgners think their construction can withstand 500 mph winds...


They have no clue what 500 mph winds could do, mathematically that will hurl a tank through the air, enough potential desctruvte power to that of a nuclear weopon.



Remember the unsinkable titanic? It sank from an iceberg that made an indirect strike quickly sinking it.


Oh ya, and a highly reinforced production plant that was supposed to withstand any tornado was leveled completey by an f4 tornado in Illinois.

Folks, yes we can make structures stronger, but in the end when money is involved combined with reality(most of the advertised strength is pride, learn to understand it, people tend to have a lot of it.) Untimately we just have to learn to evacuate and not build so close to the coast, or go underground when a tornado approaches, because I don't care what your in, when a strong tornado hits your structure, your risking your life.

I just thought I'd bring a little reality in, people try to hard to resist the hard ships of life and fail trying, man neads to realized e's not all powerfull, and he needs to realize life has hardships such as storms, and we need to focus more on not building in hurricanes paths so much, making sure avacuations are more efficient.

As for tornados, more people need to be educated so they know what to do, and there needs to be more safe shelters underground and other ways of aleting people to help save lives.

Even then, you cannot completely secure safety, life is not going to be easy many times, and we all should learn to adjust tro that more, which definitely goes for dangerous weather as well.

I think this year, 2007, will turn out very close with the amount of storms and intensity as the year 1933. If you look at 1933 the first storm formed in early May and the next one late June. I think this will be a year very close to 1933. Look for yourselves.

Here we go again folks!

It's "I think I see a pinhole eye..." season again.

Have a happy and safe 2007 Hurricane Season!

Here's a link to Some VERY useful weather links in my New Forum- Forum Giant- Useful Weather Links

got a little SW Caribbean activity, GFS is taking it into the Pacific.