Barry weakens, douses Florida with needed rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is steadily weakening as it races towards the Florida coast. Winds have decreased to 40 mph, as observed by the 9:30am EDT Hurricane Hunter report, which found winds at 1,500 altitude of 47 mph. The pressure has risen 2 mb in the past two hours, and now stands at 1002 mb. Barry is embedded in a zone of strong wind shear--about 30 knots. This shear ripped away most of Barry's deep thunderstorm activity last night, and pushed these storms over the Florida Peninsula. Satellite loops shows that some heavy thunderstorm activity has returned near the center of circulation, so the shear has not been able to totally destroy the storm yet. As Barry continues today over cooler waters, it should continue to weaken, and residents of Florida should expect only minor wind damage. I doubt any station will experience sustained winds of tropical storm strength (39 mph), although gusts of 50-55 mph are likely. The main threat from Barry will be isolated tornadoes that could spin up in some of the heavier thunderstorms over land. The storm surge may cause minor flooding in the Tampa Bay area. Currently, tides are running a foot or two above normal there, and will increase with a persistent onshore wind to 3 to 5 feet above normal this afternoon from the Tampa Bay area northward to Citrus County and 1 to 3 feet south of Tampa Bay and Levy County.

Barry will do far more good than harm--the storm has already dumped 1-5 inches of rain over most of Florida, with more rain to come. Heavy rain from Barry will affect the Carolinas on Sunday, and could cause some local flooding problems there. However, Barry will lose its tropical storm status after crossing Florida, and is not a threat to reintensify after crossing into the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in third place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Second place is held by 1908, when the second storm of the year formed on May 26.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1908 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted yesterday.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program aired a 30-minute interview with me yesterday about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting _Hurricanes.mp3.

Jeff Masters

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622. NJNorEaster
3:03 PM GMT on August 01, 2007
Good Morning everyone... Have any of you read Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle over Global Warming by Chris Mooney? It's really good!!!
Member Since: September 12, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 55
621. ClearH2OFla
4:54 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
ah man no can you repost them please
619. BahaHurican
4:47 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
new blog
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
618. CFLweather
4:44 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
The waves coming off of Africa look fairly healthy and LARGE for this time of the year. These waves rarely develop into anything at the beginning of June, but anything is still possible.
617. stoormfury
4:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
a rather impressive wave coming off the african coast. cimatology does not favour anything developing in this area so early in the season. funny things sometimes do happen. the sst is marginal for development, as well the low shear 5-10 knots. one would have to wait and see what happens in the next 12 hrs.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2720
616. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
4:24 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Florida Drought index looks a lot better now, the north is still dry though.

Any word on the burn ban being lifted in palm beach county?
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 477
615. HurricaneFCast
4:14 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
614. Thunderstorm2
4:00 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
That African wave is way to close to the equator to form into anything relivent.

If we were more into the season then it could have had a chance but at the moment it is just an area of Convection.
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
613. StormJunkie
3:50 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Cold Core Barry....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
612. fldoughboy
3:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
I like that "unknown tropical storm" bit going on. In that area of the equator is has a zero chance of development. Must be a test storm.
611. Ermuleto
3:36 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
610. stormchaserDAZ
3:32 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
if it does form very little chance it will ittl be a big 1
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
609. V26R
3:29 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
And besides anything really below 10 degrees N
has very little chance this time of year
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
608. stormchaserDAZ
3:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
it in visible
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
607. V26R
3:27 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
It'll die out before long
Way too early for something to develop that came off of Africa
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
606. hurricane667
3:19 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
I was just going to mention that big blob/wave coming off the African coast. looks huge
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 161
605. stormchaserDAZ
3:16 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
o my god oooo my god thats a biggen
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 249
604. crackerlogic
3:07 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
ClearH2OFla

did you see the videos i took of clearwater beach yesterday?
603. ClearH2OFla
3:01 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
H23 want to say i like your site and i was listening on Friday nite the Bar Bob show you had great questions. So whats on the Horizon? I get to claim the first landfall of the Season as i live in pinellas county clearwater to be exact and barry came right through.
601. V26R
2:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
TDude, not sure what pix your referring to, but on this one just looks like your typical Noreaster Do you have a better Shot?

Link
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
600. Thunderstorm2
2:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Arabian Sea Tropical Update.

Severe Tropical Cyclone "Gonu" is forecast to intensify further. Currently at 55 knots and 988 hPa.

d
d
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
599. 4Gaia
2:31 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Good morning, I'm thankful those of you in Florida got some much needed rain.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
598. tornadodude
2:27 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
hey y'all! maybe its just me, but do you think that the remnants of barry resemble a supercell t-storm? if you lokk at infared it does. just a thought.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
597. fldoughboy
2:26 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Now that Barry and Barbara is gone, it will be boring for a bit.

Gainesville (Where i live got 2.7 inches)
596. Thunderstorm2
2:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Good Morning.

My back yard stil has enough water in it to be classed as a Lake...lol

Hope everyone has a fantastic Sunday!
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
595. BahaHurican
2:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
The damage from the storm was immense; few buildings in Miami or Miami Beach were left intact. The toll for the storm was $100 million in 1926 dollars, just over $2 billion in 2005 dollars. It is estimated that if an identical storm hit in the year 2003, with modern development and prices, the storm would have caused over $98 billion in damage. Quoted from Wikipedia, who quoted from somebody else; i didn't look to see who . . .

I made a boo-boo; the storm that devastated Nassau in 1926 was the JULY hurricane. Until 2005 this was the strongest July hurricane on record. By the time the great Miami hurricane struck several weeks later, I guess there wasn't much left TO destroy. I also think that the angle of approach of the early storm, more from the south than from the east, made its winds and surge more destructive here.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
594. SCwxwatch
2:18 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:00 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Good and wet mel! Back side should pass through here by early afternoon and it looks as if most of the heavier shower activity will remain a little ways inland today though.


Yep !!

Got a total of 1.28 Inches so far from it.
God knows we need it.

BTW Good morning all
593. hurricane23
2:16 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Baha miami dade and broward counties would be devastated if a tropical system similar to andrews intensity were to make landfall in downtown miami.Conditions felt in dade and broward were nothing like the ones the were felt in florida city which is were i use to live back in 92.The max winds in dade were around 85-95mph at most while homestead went threw 140-150mph winds.Dade has been very lucky for a very long long time and one day that luck will end.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
592. hurricane23
2:10 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Will watch the 30minute show tonight on TWC tonight.Starts at 9m.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
591. BahaHurican
2:10 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
BTW, that hurricane of 1926 also devastated the city of Nassau, where I live. At the time Nassau barely qualified for the title of city, with fewer than 50,000 residents. Today the city sprawls across most of the island of New Providence, a 7 x 21 eye-shaped piece of real estate with 106 feet as its highest point. A hurricane like the 1926 one would do serious damage here, despite the fact that building codes in the Bahamas are much better than those in much of South Florida. In particular, storm surge would do a great deal of damage.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
589. BahaHurican
2:05 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: FLfishyweather at 8:56 AM EDT on June 03, 2007.

Has anyone noticed that the weather channel is a little well, late on their shows? Like "what if a major hurricane hit Miami" and "climate change may be making hurricanes more intense".


I don't know why u have this issue with TWC on the Miami hurricane thing. I think yesterday quite a number of people clarified that while Miami-Dade County did receive a direct hit from Andrew, and while NHC does consider a storm centre passing within 50 miles of a location to be a direct hit, Andrew's small radius of Cat 3+ winds meant that most of the serious damage was confined to areas well south of the downtown Miami area. One of the reasons why Homestead was such a tragedy was because it was only AFTER the storm that the majority of the people realized how serious the damage was to that area, mainly due to Andrew's small size.

TWC is focusing on a future storm that would hit the more highly populated and developed downtown area, including Miami Beach, and that would be of a greater radius than Andrew. Such a storm hitting that area in 2007 would be a very different proposition from, say the 1926 storm which devastated a newly burgeoning Miami and sent the area into an early depression. Such a storm striking that area today would wreak havoc not only on Miami-Dade's business centre, but also on much of Broward County to the north, where Ft. Lauderdale and its sister communities like Hollywood sprawl westward to the Everglades. Check out this story from the Sun-Sentinel for details on the older storm. Then compare the development in Dade and Broward Counties then with what it is now.

Additionally, TWC actually builds past events into these programs. They actually have a section on the program which says "it DID happen"! What they are doing is bringing the past events into recollection for the general public and then considering what effects similar events would have on the location in modern times.

I can't see why you would consider this "late". If anything, it is rather timely.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
588. StormJunkie
2:00 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Good and wet mel! Back side should pass through here by early afternoon and it looks as if most of the heavier shower activity will remain a little ways inland today though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
586. Drakoen
1:51 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 1:45 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june

I don't see it, plus it is too far out.

its south of Cuba. But 9 days is too far out. i will give it 2 more days of consistency.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
585. Drakoen
1:47 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
I just saw the GFS looks like it has a good system developing 9 days out but i will wait for more model agreement before i by into this.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30617
584. WPBHurricane05
1:45 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june

I don't see it, plus it is too far out.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
580. melwerle
1:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
That's what it looks like SJ - i thought we had gotten it all yesterday but it's still kind of breezy here and misty. I thought he was already blowing north...

How it up near you?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
576. StormJunkie
1:30 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
What's normal level WPB?

It should continue to come up over the next week or two as all this water makes it's way south in the rivers and swamps.

Morning mel ☺

You may get a little more rain as the backside passes through.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
575. melwerle
1:28 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Well Barry's gone - but pressure is down to 998 here...still looks yucky outside.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
574. WPBHurricane05
1:19 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Well Lake Okeechobee is now at 9 feet.
Lake O Water Level
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
573. StormJunkie
1:06 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Yep pat, yesterday the pressure gradient did kick the winds up for a short period, and most of the SE got some much needed rain! Nothing but a nice rainy weekend ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
572. Patrap
1:01 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
A lil clouds..a lil rain...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.