Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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859. Miamiweather
10:27 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
so what r the thoughts on those waves off the coast of Africa
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857. Thundercloud01221991
10:12 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Please visit my blog

Link
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856. Patrap
5:11 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Impressive..and on the move, Gonu

3
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
855. MZT
10:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
We saw some massive cyclones hit northern Australia last year... no, thay don't last long over hot sand at all!
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853. Littleninjagrl
9:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
good afternoon everybody. I'm not too good at finding all the info so can someone tell me if there is anything brewing in the tropics? I'm in Florida
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
852. sullivanweather
9:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
3.91" of rain at Central Park, NYC over the last 24hrs from Barry.

Measured only 0.72" here in Bethel, NY.
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851. Patrap
4:50 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Storm Sure Se La.Aug 05..Plaquemines Parish

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
850. Tazmanian
9:40 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flash Flood Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
LAC113-042215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH SINCE THIS
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MAURICE
MEAUX

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3004 9241 2997 9199 3004 9196 3008 9207



i would have a lifejacket with you in your care if you are going any where tonight many roads are flood down there
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849. sullivanweather
9:36 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Outflow boundry from supercell that's moving into Louisianna is beginning to interact with sea-breeze front between Beaumont and Lake Charles.

New storms should fire here and hopefully steal some of the moisture feeding into the cell south of Lafayette.
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848. RL3AO
4:35 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
If it can hit a low populated are, it would be interesting to see what happens if it can hold together as a Cat 2 or 3. A cyclone going over 100 degree sand? I bet it falls apart pretty quick.
847. FLBoy
9:31 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
So parts are looking at 5 years worth of rain?

I don't know....but it will be way more than the annual average of 4 inches....LOL!
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846. RL3AO
4:30 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
So parts are looking at 5 years worth of rain?
845. sullivanweather
9:25 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Since 1945 it appears Oman has been hit by 13 tropical cyclones, 2 in 1979.

Link
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844. FLBoy
9:27 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
The climate of Oman is hot and arid. Daily average temperatures vary between 21C and 35C, while annual rainfall is only 100 mm.
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843. RL3AO
4:21 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
How much rain does Oman get per year?
842. louisianaboy444
9:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
14 inches in your hot spot!!!!!
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841. louisianaboy444
9:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
man i wonder whats the rainfall totals now in youngsville and broussard!
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840. cajunkid
4:12 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
thanks Pat!
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839. RL3AO
4:09 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Oman has be hit my three or four tropical storms. Not sure about Iran, but I doubt anything near hurricane strength.
838. Patrap
4:10 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Most likely a Lightening strike.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
837. Patrap
4:08 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
emergencey mail network..notify..Heres a link for you cajunkid.Fill it out and youll be ahead of the game next time. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
836. louisianaboy444
9:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
what caused it?
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835. Ohio91
9:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Has Iran ever been hit by anything tropical
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834. Patrap
4:07 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Heres the area ..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
833. cajunkid
4:04 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
StSimon,Patrap, its well to my west, thats all they said on the news flash, I'm trying to find out more
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832. Patrap
4:02 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Wait one...is that a Oil Storage tank..or what.?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
830. Patrap
4:00 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Outflow downdrafts most likley.This kind of setup .is bad news.With Drive time a coming.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
829. sullivanweather
8:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
That cell south of Lafayette is training in every sense of the word.

Hopefully the inflow of the supercell crossing the border into Louisianna will disrupt the sea-breeze boundry responsible for this ongoing storm.
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828. cajunkid
3:57 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
We just had a tank explosion in Vermillion Parish!

they are evacuating Indian Bayou along Deuy Rd

HW 167 is under water
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827. louisianaboy444
8:58 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
the thunderstorm is about 10 miles to my south and the wind is blowing like crazy here and its thundering in the distance.....could the cells merging down there be responsible for the strong wind i'm getting here?
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826. Patrap
3:58 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
We have had 2.5in here in Kenner..with more lifting in..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
825. cajunkid
3:55 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
good thing thats not over N.O. ayy Patrap?
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824. Tazmanian
8:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Super Cyclonic Storm "Gonu" kill the navy site
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823. louisianaboy444
8:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
a foot of rain!!! and counting...a light drizzle is starting to fall here with thunder in the distance and the wind is blowing but no heavy rain i think it will blow over me
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821. Patrap
3:52 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Pink is 12 inches..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
819. Patrap
3:50 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Use the radar storm total mode and zoom..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
818. cajunkid
3:48 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
444, check this out Link they can't stand any more
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816. RL3AO
3:49 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Living in Minnesota, I will defiantly be watching the SPC the next few days.
815. cajunkid
3:46 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Patrap, the station in Maurice has to wrong reporting 0.00 precip
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814. Patrap
3:48 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
..If it Keeps on Raining..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
813. louisianaboy444
8:46 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
hey cajunkid looks like a line is starting to form from just south of jennings to just south of me to your hot spot over there....and look at those storms in texas heading over here they getting cooking man
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812. Patrap
3:45 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Youngsville, La. data..scroll to bottom for stations in that area..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
811. cajunkid
3:36 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
huh...the sun was shinning
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810. louisianaboy444
8:43 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
but youngsville is still getting rocked and broussard i wish i knew the rainfall totals
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809. sullivanweather
8:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu could try to 'fight off' some of the adverse effects it will encounter as it heads for Oman.

If it is one thing about these super strong tropical cyclones that get this perfectly structured is that they seem to create their own environment and become less affected by external forcings.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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