Quiet Atlantic; police blow up weather station
There's not much to talk about in the Atlantic today. A tropical wave we were watching (97L), east of Bermuda, has moved north over colder waters and is no longer a threat to develop. A large area of Saharan dust and dry air is present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, which will discourage any development in this region over the next few days. Later in the week, the UKMET and ECMWF models are hinting that conditions may moisten enough for something to develop off the coast of Africa. However, tropical storm formation in this region is unusual in July, and I'd be surprised if something did develop.
The long range GFS model shows that the steering pattern for the next two weeks will be much different than what we saw in 2006 and so far in 2007. We will no longer have a dominant trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that will act recurve storms out to sea. Instead, an alternating series of weak ridges and weak troughs rippling along the jet stream is expected. No particular region of the Atlantic will be at higher risk of being hit with such a pattern.
Police robot blows up weather station
If you've never seen one before, familiarize yourself with what a weather stations looks like. State Police in Virginia had apparently never seen one before, and sent a police robot in to blow up a "suspicious object" hanging from a tree near a hospital in Virginia. The object turned out to be a home weather station. A tree is not a very good place to put a weather station--how can you measure accurate precipitation and winds there? Perhaps that's what the police were wondering, too, and this made them suspicious enough to terminate the threatening weather station.
In case you missed it, here's my analysis of the QuikSCAT science presented at Thursday's Congressional hearing.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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If it still had a surface low, it would have a greater chance.
The ONLY difference, between these 2 years is that this year is La Nina/Neutral year (though isn't really taking a big affect) and the steering currents bring the storms to the USA.
So, I think overall this year, compared to 2006, will have a bit lower shear in the heart of the season because of La Nina, and the storms that do form may go into the general path of the GOM/USA.
Therefore, we may have aroundd 13-14 storms, that may head towards the USA..and those stroms may be very intense becasue of high SST's in Caribbean/GOM. But, my point is, that this year is more similiar to last year than most of you think. It's just, this year, we have a but lower shear (but not much lower) and bad steering currents. That's all.
My only concern is what that means for us, here in the panhandle. I'm assuming we're in for some rain this afternoon, but not certain if we should expect "gustier" storms if it moves this way...
RE the steering currents forecast.
Are you concerned about the W GOM and then the entire coast, later in the forecast period? If I'm reading those charts correctly (probably not), then it appears that anyhting that got into the GOM would be curved by those winds, correct or not?
New synopsis up on my blog...Invite you to view and cooment if you wish.
Always great reading your blog storm. I think I know why the NHC dubbed the area as Invest 97L though. If you recall they just had some new software installed last month and i think they wanted to give it a go around before things get interesting and iron out some of the flaws.
Ike/WWB;
My only concern is what that means for us, here in the panhandle. I'm assuming we're in for some rain this afternoon, but not certain if we should expect "gustier" storms if it moves this way...
Means rain...more likely tomorrow.
There's a weak 1012mb double-barrel low in the northeast GOM....
Tropicnerd, the online tests aren't worth trusting, and more for fun than anything else. You will only be offered a very small sampling in every area of intelligence, so unless your intellect is very evenly distributed a la Da Vinci, your score won't be accurate. Virtually everyone has comparative strengths and weaknesses which aren't taken into account online. See a shrink for a full test, it's fun.
could any of you answer the iq test questions?
The internet is vast. Try a search.
"The long range GFS model shows that the steering pattern for the next two weeks will be much different than what we saw in 2006 and so far in 2007. We will no longer have a dominant trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that will act recurve storms out to sea. Instead, an alternating series of weak ridges and weak troughs rippling along the jet stream is expected. No particular region of the Atlantic will be at higher risk of being hit with such a pattern."
OK, so what year does the 2007 setup most resemble? I feel a little better though because his last two week outlook was hinting at conditions more closely resembling 2004 & 2005. The Bermuda/Azores high should be cemented by his next two week outlook. I will be looking forward to seeing how that compares with 2004-2006.
Link
Almost all of the rain is staying off shore.
Just looking at UK Met agency, shear, SAL, pattern forecast, and the last few runs of the GFS, Canadian (which has ants in its computerized pants) and ECMWF, I suspect odds very good we get throough July w/ no named cyclone.
Probably 6 to 8 all year, on top of two barely TCs already had, for a total of 8 to 10. But, at least one follows an Erin/Andrew/Katrina path, with a first hit on Florida, then a second hit between S.E. Louisiana and Panama City Beach, and with abnormally high available heat energy in the Eastern Gulf, said storm will do significant damage, especially on second strike if it can get more than a day offshore Florida before second landfall.
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