Quiet Atlantic; police blow up weather station

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on July 23, 2007

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There's not much to talk about in the Atlantic today. A tropical wave we were watching (97L), east of Bermuda, has moved north over colder waters and is no longer a threat to develop. A large area of Saharan dust and dry air is present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, which will discourage any development in this region over the next few days. Later in the week, the UKMET and ECMWF models are hinting that conditions may moisten enough for something to develop off the coast of Africa. However, tropical storm formation in this region is unusual in July, and I'd be surprised if something did develop.

The long range GFS model shows that the steering pattern for the next two weeks will be much different than what we saw in 2006 and so far in 2007. We will no longer have a dominant trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that will act recurve storms out to sea. Instead, an alternating series of weak ridges and weak troughs rippling along the jet stream is expected. No particular region of the Atlantic will be at higher risk of being hit with such a pattern.

Police robot blows up weather station
If you've never seen one before, familiarize yourself with what a weather stations looks like. State Police in Virginia had apparently never seen one before, and sent a police robot in to blow up a "suspicious object" hanging from a tree near a hospital in Virginia. The object turned out to be a home weather station. A tree is not a very good place to put a weather station--how can you measure accurate precipitation and winds there? Perhaps that's what the police were wondering, too, and this made them suspicious enough to terminate the threatening weather station.

In case you missed it, here's my analysis of the QuikSCAT science presented at Thursday's Congressional hearing.

Jeff Masters

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562. Drakoen
3:10 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
hmm MLC maybe i should make the requirements more specific lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
561. moonlightcowboy
3:09 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Looks like we have some conditions for cyclogenesis. We need to see an llc and organized convections! lol

Thanks, Drakoen!
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560. moonlightcowboy
3:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
No idea, scwinds. May just be 98, temps warm enough and shear even expected to drop in that area. Less SAL, too, there. jmho
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558. Drakoen
3:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2007

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
557. scwindsaloft
2:56 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
moonlightcowboy...that was a pretty impressive blob rolling off the coast. Wonder if it will hold together?
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556. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
thats alot of time for a storm to get strong
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554. moonlightcowboy
2:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
From the Verdes to the southern tip of FL, approximately 3661 miles.
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553. Rodek
2:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Thank you for the answe stsimons. That is quite a journey over water.
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551. Rodek
2:45 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Good evening all. Here's my question of the night....

How far is it, as the crow flies, from the coast of Africa to the East coast of the US?

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550. moonlightcowboy
2:41 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
I think we'll get 98 soon, Tuesday, maybe? Just look at this thing rolling off of Africa!

Link

...and funny somewhere this evening, on one of the models, I think I saw some fujiwara thing happening, unless I was dreaming???
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548. stormybil
2:39 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Oh no stormy, what's happening? I haven't had a chance to check in all day

not too much yet charles we are watching the wave in the atl that the gfs says will form on the july 25 . stay tuned
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547. charley04survivor
2:35 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Oh no stormy, what's happening? I haven't had a chance to check in all day.
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546. stormybil
2:33 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
ok everyone the gfs might be right the atl. is getting alittle fired up right now at this hour stay tuned .
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545. moonlightcowboy
2:30 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
The storm about to come off Africa is showing a 1002 mb low, but it also looks to roll off at about 25n...a lil high unless it curves to sea maybe.

Plus, our high anchored in the mid-atl is pushing south all the way to the SA coast. Whoa!
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541. Caymanite
2:19 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Hi SJ, I am also on vacation from 1st -15th Aug. and spending 1 week in the Dom Rep so not getting out of hurricane alley for long. Will try to access WU from there. Dont need Murphys law to follow me there. LOL
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539. Drakoen
2:23 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
TropicalMan07 1010mb is a strong tropical wave-Weak depression.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
537. stormwatcher247
2:14 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Chicklit,
My guess is mid Aug.
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534. StormJunkie
2:18 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Sorry cl, missed your ?

Aug 1st-5th...I'll be on vacation, you know Murphy and his laws...lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828
533. StormJunkie
2:13 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Hey cl, winds, and everyone else, great to see everyone.

Got to get up for work at 4:30 so I am off to bed. Night all.

See everyone tomorrow ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828
532. sporteguy03
2:16 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
JP,
GFS Model? We'll see but I keep hearing Mets in Orlando say its too dry in the ATL? Anyways good night DR.M's Blog!
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529. Drakoen
2:08 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
TropicalMan it shows the pressure nearing 1000mb. Very hard to tell what exactly the GFS is picking up on.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
528. scwindsaloft
2:07 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Evening SJ
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527. Chicklit
2:04 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Hi StormJunkie...when do you think we'll see our first organized system?
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525. Chicklit
2:01 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Bystander...Had to be a microburst in Plantation early evening, touched down on her 2+ acres...It was her birthday, too. No real harm done, just a nuisance to put the canopy back. Heavy as hell! Guess she's lucky it didn't hit the house.
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524. Alec
23 07, 2007 22:03 EDT
I'll be there StormW......I usually show up a little past 9am.
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523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
hey heres one zoom in 21 10 whats that clear spot on east atlantic water vapor
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520. StormJunkie
1:58 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Evening all ☺

I see the GFS has a CV system try to get going.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828
519. Drakoen
1:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Also tropical man it might not be this wave even though the GFS shows it in the general area of this wave. The Wave Axis of the current wave along 40W. the GFS shows something at 25W. My thinking is that it maybe be that wave coming of Africa.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
518. bystander
9:57 PM EDT on July 23, 2007
Chicklit,
I live on Nob Hill, one street to the east.
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517. stormybil
1:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
drak that gfs is showing development on the july 25 isnt that too soon . and if you notice the sal is moving faster west ahead of it then the wave is moving right . so the gfs could be right on target ?
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515. Drakoen
1:53 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
Night time helps with evaporative cooling (more convection) doesn't mean that the wave is trying to reorganize.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29938
513. bystander
1:52 AM GMT on July 24, 2007
chicklit, I was walking my dog and saw a palm tree snapped in half and several basketball hoops blown over. Microburst?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.