Sea ice in the Arctic continues its record decline, thanks to unusually cloud-free conditions and above-average temperatures. For August 21, the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that fully one third of the Arctic ice cap was missing, compared to the average levels observed on that date from 1979-2000. Sea ice extent was 4.92 million square kilometers on August 21, and the 1979-2000 average for the date was about 7.3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice has fallen below the record low absolute minimum of 4.92 million square kilometers set in 2005 by about 8%, with another 3-5 weeks of the melting season still remaining. Reliable records of sea ice coverage go back to 1979.
Figure 1. Extent of the polar sea ice on August 21, compared to the average for the date from the 1979-2000 period (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
With one third of the Arctic ice cap already gone, and another month of melting to go, we need to consider what effect this will have on weather, climate, and sea level rise. Well, we don't need to worry about sea level rise, since the polar sea ice is already in the ocean, and won't appreciably change sea level when it melts. However, the remarkable melting of the ice cap will likely lead to unusual weather patterns this fall and winter. The lack of sea ice will put much more heat and moisture into the polar atmosphere, affecting the path of the jet stream and the resultant storm tracks. Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years.
Last week, I remarked that the most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of melt water and rainy conditions near the Pole. It turns out that was misleading, since the webcam is on a ship that was headed towards the pole, but had not reached it. There have been rainy conditions at the Pole this summer, and there is some open water there, but this is not uncommon in summer. Shifting ice frequently opens up leads (cracks) with open sea water at the Pole. It was one of these open leads that British swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh swam in for 18 minutes this July to draw attention to global climate change.
Figure 2. Total rainfall from August 10-22 as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.
Midwest flooding
To get an idea of the magnitude of the flooding that has hit the Midwestern U.S. during the past ten days, take a look at the total amount of rain from August 10-22 (Figure 2). We can blame Tropical Storm Erin for the rain in Texas and Oklahoma (up to 11 inches), and for the nine flooding deaths that occurred in those states. However, the unbelievable rain amounts in excess of 20 inches in Minnesota and Wisconsin were primarily due to a frontal system--with the help of some copious moisture pumped northwards by the counter-clockwise circulation around Erin while it spun over Oklahoma.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. Two of our four reliable forecast models, the NOGAPS and ECMWF, are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. The models forecast that this system would move inland over Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday.
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Bulldozer trying to clear sand and debris from Norman Manley Highway(Airport Road)
The flood is over, now the cleanup
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Here's something one of my friends is working on...
http://www.pnl.gov/topstory.asp?id=264
sammo: believe it or not, we got about 1 minute of rain today. it looks worse than it is and we need it! Where is the rain???
Good bit of it blowing up from Orlando on down. Y'all have fun venting over GW...
Instead of beating a dead horse, why can't some of the "quiet time" blogs be about the horrible flooding from TS Erin, or even the storms ravaging the midwest????
At least that is real time weather discussion, rather than the same old beating of global warming.
SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 28N54W.
What's this?
"Run fer da hills!"
Oh wait, there are no hills here on the south side of Tampa Bay. But wait!!! The tides are basically no higher than they have been for many generations.
Ummmm..... (grabbing SUV keys, hooking up the dreaded 21' Manatee killer, 2-stroke powered bay skiff and heading to the boat ramp) "Honey, I'm off to verify our doom!"
Just kidding Baha! You can barely make out a circulation on th satellite imagery. I was looking at it earlier when I saw that in the discussion.
Arghh!
Thought I had refreshed the page but apparently I had just opened a new page instead. Then I went back to the old one by mistake . . .
Obviously I only looked at the Twaves the first time . . . LOL
Well, wonder what the next religion will be???
*wonders*
713mm at rainbow beach in 24hrs to 9am monday new Australian record for August
FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N45W...CONTINUES SW TO ANOTHER 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 29N52W...THEN W TO 26N57W 30N65W.
This looks more like the OPC map I just looked at . . .
"Run fer da hills!"
Perhaps you should take the time to acutally read what Dr. Masters said in his blog today. Water that is in the ocean currently does NOT raise sea level.
no, actually - now that I think about it - this is the decade for blaming the fall of civilization on gays and lesbians. They did it - blame GW on them!
good grief - I thought this was the one corner of the internet where I could go without hearing the rubbish about how horrid humans are ruining the universe.
out of here.
Or, maybe we should use the money to find a way to clone food since we need to use all our farm land to grow corn so we can stop using oil ..."
Actually, it would be a lot more than that. Cornell ran the numbers. If all the cars in the US were run on ethanol, right now, it would take 97% of the entire land mass of the US to grow that much corn.
Corn takes a lot of water, fertilizer, and pesticides too.
Obvious sarcasm....
http://www.sun-sentinel2.com/graphics/news/andrew/then.html
lat,like your debate. This is a complex matter one thing can worse then another."
thank you, just the facts ;-)
I don't understand the environmentalists that see corn as the solution. Wait until someone explains to them that all those wetlands and old growth forests have to be bulldozed to grow that corn. That every bit of water has to be used to irrigate it, and we're bring back DDT to keep the bugs off.
97% of the total land mass of this country would have to be used to cultivate that much corn.
Plus, we can't use the corn in cultivation now. That corn is spoken for already.
I guess I will need to do more research - I'm surprised we are still around to debate the topic! After all, the aerosol deodorants should have sent us to dinosaur land a few decades ago (or so they said).
I'm ignorant here. Define "CV season".
The season where waves that come of Africa climatologically start developing.
Why, the climatology speaks for itself LOL
Hope everyone is well. Thing still quite out there?
I have been pretty busy working on a few new projects I hope to get implemented over the next month or so. Taking this quite time to work while we got it!
I'm ignorant here. Define "CV season".
First, you suggest this is the place I should be for intelligent conversation then, as I hang on the edge of my seat, you reveal your identity.
lat, those are good examples of how you must be careful in fixing problems. Ethanol can help, but it is not the end all... Better fuel efficiency and possibily hydrogen and solar power will help. Probably like many trouble-shooting problems I deal with, it takes a combination of many things in moderation. Going gung whole on one thing usually increases problems.
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