TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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1799. Eyewall911
3:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I don't see any of these storms affecting the U.S. Too much shear and the B high is weak. I thing CV storms will be fish food.
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1798. extreme236
3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
we are pretty much at or around dmin with 96L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1797. mit5000
3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
td 12 by 5pm?
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1796. LightningCharmer
3:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 3:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
I know 94L should not ammount to much, but moisture is increasing shown here.


If it's helping with all the rain in south Florida, we're lovin' it. Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee River watersheds need it.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1795. StormJunkie
3:04 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
wx23, we are approaching the diurnal minimum right now, not the max. Max is when the atmosphere is the coolest. Early morning hours.
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1794. decimus785
3:03 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
i hope 97L can become something and send atleast some rain to ABC islands
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1793. mississippiwx23
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97l is going to need to get some convection back soon to keep developing. We are at the d-max and all the convection died! That is an issue, but definately not the end. It is still in a favorable environment right now, so if some more externally forced mass convergence can converge on that area, internally forced convergence can still be initiallized, resulting in the formation of a depression in the next 1-3 days. Something to definately keep watching.

94l (gulf storm right?) is an interesting system. The hwrf and gfdl both center the low pressure over the yucatan. This is not where the greatest convection is located, which is in the central gulf. Looks like the system has broken into many different parts, which will hamper development. More likely is the low over the yucatan has the greater chance of development once it gets over water. The energy going towards the coast right now is moving so quickly to the north, it probably does not have enough time.

96l (east atlantic) looks the best right now. I wouldnt doubt it is a depression by the end of the day or on monday. favorable conditions continue for the next few days, so it should be able to develop into a tropical storm. We will at least be through the Karen storm by mid-weak.

Yesterday everyone was saying 4 named storms...50% aint half bad. Oh wait, that it is half. Nevermind.
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1792. moonlightcowboy
3:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Good morning, all!

94, 95, 96.....and 97!!!!

Sorry, see it now!

WHO SAID THIS SEASON WAS GONNA BE A BUST?
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1791. woodlandstx
2:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
has 94L entered the GOM yet? shouldn't we see a blob form or is the shear too much for this system? I noticed no floater assigned yet, the NHC must not like its chances.
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1790. HurricaneGeek
11:02 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
ok thanks extreme236...
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1789. NorthxCakalaky
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
I know 94L should not ammount to much, but moisture is increasing shown here.

Link


Rain coming to New Orleans.

Link


The moisture in the middle of the GOM is with 94L right?
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1788. extreme236
3:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 3:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

ok then 236,
it won;t be a TD till that happens correct?


Well, convection is close to the center, so it wont matter, it can still be a TD
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1787. CJ5
9:59 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Looks like there will be plenty to watch for the US this week. I see there is another potential to be coming off Africa later as well.
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1786. StormJunkie
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
No kidding TCW, going to be interesting to see how the next two weeks worth of fronts set up.
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1785. HurricaneGeek
11:00 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
ok then 236,
it won;t be a TD till that happens correct?
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1784. extreme236
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
be back in a bit
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1782. TheCaneWhisperer
2:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning SJ! Just when you think ya might get a break, lol.
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1781. rareaire
2:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
thanks stormjunkie and ladyluck for answering my question.
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1780. extreme236
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 2:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Is the center of 96L under that heavy convection?


no
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1779. decimus785
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
we will see jerry again in 2013...
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1778. extreme236
2:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Ok, well the chances for 97L have gone up...it now has an anticyclone over it, so tonights dmax should juice it up
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1777. HurricaneGeek
10:58 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Is the center of 96L under that heavy convection?
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1776. StormJunkie
2:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning TCW and ben :~)
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1775. benirica
2:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
ok ... 96L is the CV one and 97L is the one near the islands? correct?
they both seem to have a shot, the CV one has always been good looking and the one near the islands seems like it is trying to get organized. it lost its huge blob and now looks to be organizing around a smaller area around where the models initialize it.
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1774. TheCaneWhisperer
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Man, 96L is a biggie.
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1773. StormJunkie
2:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
rare, the Consensus models have out performed all the individual models over the past 5 years.
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1772. Tazmanian
7:56 AM PDT on September 23, 2007
96L will be a big storm when it dos geta name look how big it is
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1771. Drakoen
2:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1770. LightningCharmer
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 2:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Well, I guess the name Jerry is gonna be used in a couple of years again.


That's a good thing.

Every name that's gets used over again means the tropical storm that name was associated with it did little property damage, and took few or no human lives. I can live with that.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
1769. flzepher
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 2:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

anticyclone has formed ove 97L

That could get interesting
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1768. Drakoen
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Also 97L has some dry conditions ahead.
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1767. Weather456
10:53 AM AST on September 23, 2007
96L will most likely become Karen and then 97 and 94 can fight over Lorenzo
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1766. TheCaneWhisperer
2:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Morning All!

Sheesh, go away for a day and boom, an STS and 3 invests, it's going to be a long week. What are everyones thoughts on 96 and 97? I haven't had a chance to research anything and won't again today. 94L seems pretty cut and paste.
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1765. decimus785
2:53 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
could we have 4 named storm in these last 6 days of septemeber ?

Did it ever happened
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1764. ladyluck276
10:53 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
I think the EMCWF has for sure. CMC has developed too much, while the NOGAPS has been way too conservative (missed Dean and Felix completely). While the NAM has been the NAM and the GFS has been meh.
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1763. SaymoBEEL
2:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Patrap, I posted this site befor you got here. You may have this already. It is a great WV Loop.

Link
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1761. rareaire
2:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
what model do you guys feel is the most accurate this seson?
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1760. Drakoen
2:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
97L needs some organized convection
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30620
1759. ladyluck276
10:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
Hey, for the longest time I thought that 96L was going to take the name TD3 (Chantal). :P
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1758. fldude99
2:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 2:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
By: floridaeast at 2:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

my thoughts only did not say it definitly would


I know.Why do you think its going there? Or are you just randomly choosing?


Caka: That's the definition of wishcasting that is so prevalent here
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1756. NorthxCakalaky
2:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Well, I guess the name Jerry is gonna be used in a couple of years again.
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1755. CanePredictor
2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Guys i tell you what, 96L is looking rather healthy and its just off the coast of Africa...This is the one i believe will take the name Karen.....
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1753. mit5000
2:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
Posted By: ladyluck276 at 2:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

yeah but unlike 94L Felix, 94L has ZERO chance of being a Cat.5


another person that dosent belive : anything is possible
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1752. Patrap
9:49 AM CDT on September 23, 2007
Long Range 30 Loop Radar shows tons of Moisture and Thunderstorms streaming N from the GOM



Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1751. ladyluck276
10:48 AM EDT on September 23, 2007
yeah but unlike 94L Felix, 94L has ZERO chance of being a Cat.5
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1750. floridaeast
2:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007
same here have a good day lol
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1749. Weather456
10:48 AM AST on September 23, 2007
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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