TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Weather forecasting was looking at the sky and holding your wet finger up to the wind...
Technology has made us safer from untoward weather events.
Unfortunately, it has made us less adaptable, too. I require my kids to do math "the hard way" - by hand - my 15 year old complains that I won't let her use a calculator but her teacher will (she's happy I'm on the road a lot!).
Got a laugh out of my daughter when she found my slide rule - wanted to know what kind of ruler it was...
Wouldn't shock me if by Monday, we have 3 if not 4 systems out there.
They still use paper charts...Better have one when entering a port.. And i as a child remember the radio beacon on the AM band...
Thanks.
Dead reckoning is an art - had to learn how to do it adequately for my PPSEL. Glad my CFI was a brute - my check ride included finding an airport with simulated stack failure.
Right now, teaching my youngest how to read a Wx chart - she wanted to know why I look at those "funny lines on the map". Last few days have been great here (Fl panhandle) - she proved she knows different types of clouds and what they can indicate. Not bad for 9 yrs old...
Drak,
Go to CIMSS wind shear map...look over the top of 94L...what do you see?
yea that upper level high has been there since this morning. There is also an upper level high over the CV wave.
My daughter is now almost 18, but still loves to track storms and go out walking on the beach in them when they aren't too bad. We're in North Fla so haven't gotten the brunt of anything... just the fun stuff!
Stop by here and leave you're story if you don't mind. You too press, if you are still around.
And evening to everyone else ☺
Thanks edf!!
and a chart box, thank you very much! I still have all of mine, nicely rolled and not folded like a road map - lol!
Here's a good loop on this soon to be invest if not tonight early in the morning.
hey 23 I hope everything is going well what are you monitoring.
Wave approaching the islands....
Storm/Drak - where is the "mystery date" that you call 94L? I don't see it on the NHC site as labeled by you guys...
anyway I own a sliderule , Just sold my sextant,
can remember LORAN A and chasing skywaves(LORAN C came later), a plotter was a person not a thing, and dead recon was done to prevent you from being dead. The first NAVSAT (not GPS) system I saw had a "box" the size of a Refrigerator
And I thought B&W TV was normal till I saw a "Color" one
I also expect the wave approaching the islands to also get tagged as its show persistence through today and if holds i see both of these systems being tagged.With a nina now in place some active times should be expected in the coming weeks.Adrian
As much as I HATE NMCI (the rulers of the Navy and USMC domains) - I guess I'll have to do business with them... LOL
Drak - now you're just talkin' Esperanto. English, please for those of us still learning the tropical lingo... :-)
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