TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

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449. stormpetrol
9:17 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I agree with Drakoen, that wave south of the CV is best looking wave so far this season as far I'm concerned looks way more promising than Dean or Felix ever did.
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448. Drakoen
9:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
No Taz lol. don't email. Just wait, be patient, use the sites you have. Besides the NHC is the one that declares invests the Navy just hosts them.
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446. Tazmanian
2:17 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Drakoen at 2:16 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

I'm surprised the area south of the CV islands is not an invest but what can we do

e mail the navy site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
445. Tazmanian
2:15 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
443. Drakoen
9:15 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I'm surprised the area south of the CV islands is not an invest but what can we do...
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442. 1900hurricane
4:15 PM CDT on September 22, 2007
That is the Arabian Sea Taz. It is just off the W coast of India.
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441. Weather456
5:15 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Very nice circulation

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
440. Weather456
5:13 PM AST on September 22, 2007
Taz, thats the Arabian Sea in the N Idian Ocean
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
438. Eyewall911
9:07 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L LOL What are the people at the NHC smoking? Can not believe CV wave not an invest yet. They probably do come to this site to get info. They just wanted to add some excitment to the blog.
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437. Tazmanian
2:07 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
would some one tell me where this is

this is in the E Pacific and one of the Floaters Invest on it

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436. Drakoen
9:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

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435. Weather456
5:06 PM AST on September 22, 2007
95L

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
432. eye
9:01 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
not for the season totals
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
431. louisianaboy444
8:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
yeah just remember any system will at least affect someone even if it is just shipping interest....i think the ships out there deserve to know if there is something brewing out there so yeah naming this an invest was the right decision no doubts about it
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
429. Stormchaser2007
9:00 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Tonight will be a buisy night so we might have a few trolls stop by.... SO all i ask is
none
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428. eye
8:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
jp, they just recently started naming subs, wouldnt call that a long long long time....

and yeah, it might be the J storm, just like in 2005 at the end, all those Fishes late in the season.
Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
427. ecflawthr
8:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i see we have 95l but wait it is not the one everybody thought. Once again the nhc proves that it doesn`t come here to get info.LOL
Anyhow I would suspect the cv wave to get an invest soon. It sure looks impressive compared to others this year that far out. I haven`t seen any shear maps lately. What is the shear looking like in front of it?
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426. redrobin
8:59 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
abc13.com Weather Blog
by Chief Meteorologist Tim Heller
Storm near Yucatan taking shape
The National Hurricane Center has started running hurricane models on the storm in the Yucatan now. Early output shows what our exclusive FutureTrack showed yesterday. The system will move across the Peninsula tonight and could develop into a tropical storm on Sunday. There is still a possibility this storm could become a hurricane on Monday because wind shear is light and water temps in the Gulf are in the mid 80s. Depending on the speed of the storm it could be approaching the Texas/Louisiana coast late Monday or early Tuesday. If this thing does develop however, watches and warnings could go up late Sunday.

It looks like the storm will be moving pretty fast which means two things. (1) The fast movement limits the amount of time over warm water which in theory should keep it from strengthening. Then again, Felix and Dean were moving 20 mph and both of them developed into Category 5 storms. So much for that theory. (2) More importantly perhaps, the fast movement limits our response time.

Let's be clear. This storm might not develop at all. We could end up with heavy
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424. Tazmanian
1:57 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z.


this fight is for 94L olny


YES!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
423. youradjuster
8:58 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:57 PM GMT on September 22, 2007.

Posted By: cattlebaroness at 1:56 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

TAZ, is that TD 10?

NO! that fight is for 94L


Is THAT FIGHT going to be on PPV?
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422. Bobbyweather
4:58 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
95L on Wunderground...
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421. louisianaboy444
8:56 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
i support your statement all the way JP but take it easy man dont be so harsh lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1339
420. Tazmanian
1:57 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
Posted By: cattlebaroness at 1:56 PM PDT on September 22, 2007.

TAZ, is that TD 10?

NO! that fight is for 94L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
419. TerraNova
4:56 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Thanks TN, does that mean the other org jumps on board automatically?

Yes.
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418. beell
8:55 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Just pondering the politics of turning on a floater and a ratio between Invest's and named storms.
I really should be cutting the grass...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15298
417. cattlebaroness
8:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
TAZ, is that TD 10?
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415. decimus785
8:54 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
the CV storm will soon be 96L
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414. Drakoen
8:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L might knock of a name on the list.. Thats it ...maybe it will cruise by some ships LOL.
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413. beell
8:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Thanks TN, does that mean the other org jumps on board automatically?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15298
411. Tazmanian
1:51 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z.



YES!!!!!!!!
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
410. TerraNova
4:51 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
Is it NOAA/SSD or the Navy or other that declares an Invest?

Navy and NHC are the organizations that I think can declare invests.
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409. pablolopez26
8:51 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
I don't care who that "forecast" was from because the OFFICIAL forecast for Port Aransas, TX on Mon is ZERO percent chance of rain on Mon and 30% on Tue.

That is HARDLY "heavy rains Mon and Tue".


Thats why its called a forecast, because it can change... Just because it states 0% for Monday doesnt mean it cant be 100% come Sunday evening...
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408. beell
8:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Speaking of statistics...
Can someone point to a link for a total count of Invests by year?
Also, another question asked out of ignorance:
Is it NOAA/SSD or the Navy or other that declares an Invest?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15298
407. CosmicEvents
8:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
It's appropriate to name the blub 95L. It will possibly have some effect on the shipping lanes.
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406. aubiesgirl
8:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
wow such tension in the air in here..lol
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405. cattlebaroness
8:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Are Hurricane Hunters scheduled to check out 94L?
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403. TerraNova
4:47 PM EDT on September 22, 2007
It'll take a while for the preliminary models (BAM and CLIPPER) to come out on 95L...satellite imagery tells that this low is nearly stationary but it will likely go out to sea IMO.

Nevermind...the BAM and LBAR models are already out. Out to sea they say, or at least towards Greenland.
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402. wederwatcher555
8:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L is a waste of numbers and letters
401. Drakoen
8:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
Out to sea. What a surprise....
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400. CosmicEvents
8:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2007
95L is what we define here as a blub.
.
.
Blub........a blob that has no chance of making landfall in the US. Most blubs wind up eventually bringing rains to golfers in Scotland.
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399. Tazmanian
1:43 PM PDT on September 22, 2007
the nhc was talking about BERMUDA and now that wave out there by BERMUDA is 95L so the CV wave will be 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.