TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index
the bad thing is that floyd should have been the wake up call for everyone's emergency preparedness...unfortunately some people failed miserably from floyd forward...in retrospect, i hope that citizens have learned to keep a watchful eye for theirselves and not rely on city and state officials to tell them what to do, I watch the weather and plan accordingly. Personally, I begin my supplies in April, buying a little each week, by the time the season is in full swing, i have everything I need, after the season is over, I donate all of it to the needy and wait till next year
94l is so disorganized, right now it is just a good amount of moisture, no LLC, not even a broad one....just rain.
I am still cooking, be a little while,
Pork loin chops
homemade cream of broccoli soup
pasta parmasain
Do you think the GFS and NOGAPS tracks for 94, 96 and 97 are likely to be the best path predictors?
ALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE.
I think GFDL is better than NOGAPS
Why did they discontinue running the models on 94L. Is it done?
Might they be upgrading it to TD?
Shawn
96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo
96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
What is your take on the systems?
eye,
What is your assessment of the systems?
I can imagine its something negative....
Link
Just using the GFS Upper Air (09/23 12UTC run) and prelim model plots only:
850 mb steering is weak right now. Becomes fairly well established at the 48 hr mark.
I don't see this system making too much of northward turn thru that time period.
Just for the sake of the argument, a NW turn places 97l somewhere east of the northern Windwards at 48 hrs. Ridge looks pretty consistent at 700 and 850mb also-suggesting NNW/NW direction at the end of this period (48-60 hrs).
Then maybe some shear out of the SW-Near Hispanola at that time.
If it worked out like that, maybe no fish.
We don't have anything to grab onto yet, so this is all speculation. File this in the "fish or not" discussion (or somewhere else).
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo
96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about
Is that the anticyclone? What makes it look like it's turning the wrong way in some of the sat views?
GOM Infrared Loop
Link
Posted By: extreme236 at 8:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 8:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
96L is ingrid all over again. 97L is the one to watch imo
96L has a ULH over it unlike ingrid...dont know what your talking about
Is that the anticyclone? What makes it look like it's turning the wrong way in some of the sat views?
Yes, an ULH is an anticyclone
Wow! I mentioned this morning around 9am that 94L would be impacted by high shear over and to the west of it through its life span and I got told I had no idea what I was talking about. NHC was saying it was a great evironment for development. Of course they dropped that wording by 11am TWO and cancelled the recon.
So anyway, I have seen two other posts about shear impacting 94L in the last 20 minutes, where is the hate on them?
well its a mix...there is some high shear and soem low shear over the system...
You sure changed your tune extreme since you were the one that told me I had no idea what I was talking about. And there is 20-40kts of shear all over and to the west of that system. That is why there is no organized convection and any that does forms races off to the north at 40kts.
I NEVER told you that you had no idea what you were talking about...stop making things up...I said that the 40kt shear was not effecting the center AT THAT TIME...big difference in 8 hours
The upper ridge across the cent GOM has been making slow progress towards the west-moving the ULL west and bringing moisture with it.
(yo, Patrap)
The higher 30/40 kt shear values are also retreating west. Excellent anticyclonic flow above the Yucatan. The lower/mid level steering is SE to NW roughly.
A couple of good reasons to keep watching anyway. It has never and it still don't look like much now.
Either JP or extreme this morning said the center was moving into the Gulf, guessing it must have backtracked.
thats the way it seemed..TWC said it was so I thought they could get something right..I guess the navy doenst agree
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean
94L
Link
GOM Visible Loop
94L
Link
Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Viewing: 2351 - 2401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index