TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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any one 2nd that?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.
97L has an anticyclone over it though, so that will help keep shear low for about 72hrs or more...shear is already weakening in part of the caribbean
Posted By: ghal416 at 9:40 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
the shear tendency around 94L and 96L seem favorable toward further development soon, but 97L seems to be heading into rougher times.
97L has an anticyclone over it though, so that will help keep shear low for about 72hrs or more...shear is already weakening in part of the caribbean
ah okay. what do the models show becoming of 97L so far?
Interesting to note that TPC has this low with 97L in the western bahamas in 7 days.
yea i saw that. perhaps they are going with the more reliable models.
The tendencies over the next 72 hours don't seem that bad at least according to the map on the WU tropical page. I don't see anything that would kill a storm except for a small band in the Gulf.
Link
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Is anyone having problems running the loops (Java) off the NOAA Atl. & Carib Tropical Sat Imagery page today...I can't seem to load the last few frames & get these images to run....
I had this same problem all day yesterday and still can't run some loops today just on NOAA. Thought it was my computer so I updated my Java. Works a little better but if anyone has any suggestions??? I have never had that happen before.
But all the variables are certainly there for tropical cyclone formation.
Another Dean?Meaning possible track.
the naked swirl is trying to get dressed behind 97L
I think the best thing about the naked swirl in front of 96l is as a rough guide to low level steering (looks NW). A little better look to the swirl may be due to upper level venting just to the NW of the swirl (high wispy cirrus stuff from 97l to the west).
The circulation looked a lot better(to me) earier today with more convection near its center.
and yet no Floater for 96L i give up
The reason there is no floater on it is because its still ways out in the eastern atlantic.I suspect tommorow it will come into view and a floater will be placed on it.
From the TWO on the area of 94 ...This system has not become any better organized so far today. However there is a potential for development in the area.
There's also NO low level circulation center (I see a few in here saying that there is one).
There's turning in the low level cloud field, but no center of circulation...
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