TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index
Taz and extreme,
Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.
The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'
If anything it looks more elongated N-S, but I guess they might want to see the QS pass to see how the LLC looks
Taz, press, extreme, et all.... your opinions of landfall, just a guess, know it's too soon to know, but just a humble guess...
My guess is that it effects the antilles, but after that I cant really guess anymore lol
Ascending Pass
Descending Pass looks like it miss it
hopefully we jinx it, because we called for ingrid to be huge and she died... so keep calling for a monster and you might just scare it off
As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28°W longitude
although this type of curriculum has led to large fundamental gaps in my knowledge...which is why this is a great site. Either gently, or w/a blowtorch, someone will set you straight. Or, we can always wait for the hindcast.
Extreme,
As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28°W longitude
That was the ascending pass...I never said it wasnt elongated any, im just saying something may have changed
Link
The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.
I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?
I agree with Patrap 100% -
Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.
But also remember this is a blog. Here you will find many levels of knowledge with respect to the tropics. A few here have a good amount of knowledge, while many like myself may discuss our slightly educated "guesses". We post our opinions and learn as we go. There are others here especially during busy times who just throw out completely wishful guesses. Have fun enjoy and enjoy the blog, but for real weather forecasts, take Pats advice. Consult your local weather forecaster or the NHC.
It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.
Thanks, My pet peave is hearing reporters say MObul (I bet yours, too)
LOL.... Good to see you two on here, its been a while but glade to see ya....
Taco :0)
Extreme,
It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.
I get that, although I wish QS I could have seen a QS pass
Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks
It doesn't matter which pass it is.
The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.
It does matter lol...QS only runs twice a day, ascending is in the morning...the time on there is not the time it is actually run
I gess it is raining where you are uh???
Taz,
Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks
nop wait in tell 23:45
It doesn't matter which pass it is.
The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.
the time of the pass is at the bottom...and the time the image was generated is at the top.
so that is not the time of the quikscat.
and those quikscat passes are from 0700 UTC this morning...they are very old and out of date.
Exactly...the times on the QS passes are confusing...i guess its just easier to remember ascend in the morning, descend at night
Guess I should apologize for my previous question, it seems to have offended some people. I did not realize there were that many folks that had all the free time to do all the research following the weather "for fun".
No need to apologize. We're all here to chat and have a good time and maybe learn a bit!
Taco :0)
my grass is 8 ft tall and we have to "jiggle" stuff around here to get it to work...
Yes me too... Sometimes I will just lurk but I will give some good advice when asked LOL...Although I do chat with JP alot for good info if you know what I mean...
Taco :0)
Does anyone have the 'free time' to give me an 'undeducated' explanation of 'ascending' v. 'descending' as used in this context...
well, basically its just the times they are done at for the most part...the ascending pass is in the morning, and the descending is in the evening
Long range radar from Mobile :(
Viewing: 2551 - 2601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 — Blog Index