TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
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Long range radar from Mobile :(
The storm centered imagery presented on this page are generated based on storm center files provided by NRL(Naval Research Laboratory at Monterey). These files are updated whenever new information about active storms become available, and the imagery is updated shortly after reciept of these files.
QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting satellite with an 1800 km wide measurement swath on the earth's surface. Generally, this results in twice per day coverage over a given geographic region. Wind retrievals are done on a 25km x 25km spatial scale. For additional QuikSCAT information please visit
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On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.
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It wasn't the question itself so much as that it only allowed for a no-no answer, as in "are you still beating your wife?"
Are you new here? I don't remember having seen ur handle before . . . If so, welcome to the hurlyburly that is the blog . . .
Click on your storm of interest on the left-look at bottom center of page-find QSCAT in the table and look at "last pass", "next pass" and beyond if desired.
I "think" this is good info-
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here you go it takes it up too 86kt in 120hrs
I wouldnt put too much faith in the ships model yet...wait till it develops (if it does)
236 did you see my post about the HH too the WINDWARD ISLANDS????
Yep, should be interesting :-)
I'm hunkered down . I think our lawns will be green for a while.
dos the HH have more then 2 storms at a time or 3 storm at a time do they have more then one Recon can they send up more if they need to?
Dont worry Taz, they have enough planes to send out
Sure looks like we are about to get a bucket-load of rain here at 11n 61w. Sure could use some too, its been a bone-dry 3 weeks with 33/34 c temps.
The Tropical Atlantic looks like it is supposed to look, this time of year. You guys can go ahead and say it " we TOLD you so........" LOL
I'm still reserving my judgement !
check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?
gut tells me 94 will be canceled, again.
maybe, it all depends on how it looks tomorrow...it hasnt been offshore long (if it even is offshore, which it may not be)
extreme-
check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?
the earliest I would expect 94L to develop, if at all, would be when recon finishes up tomorrow assuming they go in
Shawn
Maybe one of them is here in Trinidad now. I'll find out.
Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.
This post made me curious, so I took a look at NHC's forecast archive for Charley. Turns out the Punta Gorda area was in the white cone every forecast after the Wednesday before the storm hit FL. The problem was, the TV mets in particular, but much of the public, really focused attention on that black line, which, mind u, did at one time indicate the Punta Gorda area as the landfall point. I guess this is why Max Mayfield and the NHC in general started emphasising that the landfall could take place anywhere in the cone. It's a pity most of us have to learn the hard way, instead of really reading and paying attention.
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