Huge storm pounds Pacific Northwest with hurricane force winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:36 AM GMT on December 04, 2007

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A powerful Pacific storm smashed ashore along the Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia coasts Monday, bringing hurricane force winds, torrential rains, and widespread flooding to the coast. Wind gusts over hurricane force (74 mph) were common along the coast, and one location, the aptly named Destruction Island in Washington, had sustained hurricane force winds (74 mph), with gusts to 93 mph. Winds gusting to 76 mph generated seas up to 48 feet high off the Oregon coast, and buoy 46050, 23 miles west of Newport, was torn from its mooring by 40 foot seas. Debris flow warnings have been posted for the steep mountain areas of the Oregon Coast Range near Tillamook. Debris flows are dangerous rapidly moving landslides. Rainfall amounts exceeding ten inches in the past day and a half have been measured in the North Oregon Coast Range. Rainfall amounts over a foot were estimated by the Seattle and Portland, OR radar (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Total rain from the Portland, OR radar for the Dec 3-5, 2007 storm.

Wind gusts exceeding hurricane force (74 mph) measured in OR and WA:

... Washington coast...
Cape Disappointment... ... ... ... ... ... .. 104 mph
Destruction Island... ... ... ... ... ... ... 93 mph
Toke Point (north end of Willapa Bay).. 75 mph

... North Oregon coast...
Bay City (near Tillamook)... ... ... ... ... 129 mph
Cape Meares (elev. 1500 ft)... ... ... ... 114 mph before power loss
Rockaway Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 104 mph
Tillamook Bay tide gage... ... ... ... ... 100 mph
Astoria (west slope)... ... ... ... ... ... 86 mph (sust. 45-50 mph)
Clatsop Spit... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 86 mph (sust.70 mph)
Astoria Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ...... 85 mph
Garibaldi... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 81 mph
Youngs Bay... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 80 mph
Cannon Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 80 mph
Tillamook (downtown)... ... ... ... ... ... 75 mph
Tillamook Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... 74 mph

... Central Oregon coast...
Lincoln City... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 125 mph
Yaquina Hwy 101 bridge (Newport) ... ... 88 mph (sust. 45-50 mph)
Lincoln City (other report)... ... ... ... 85 mph
Newport Airport... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 83 mph (sust. 58 mph)
Newport Jetty... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 82 mph
Sea Lion Caves... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 81 mph (sust. 40-45 mph)
Agate Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 78 mph (lost power)
Hatfield Science Center... ... ... ... ... . 75 mph

... Oregon Coast Range...
Mt. Hebo... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 91 mph
Cedar RAWS... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 74 mph

... Cascade foothills...
Sugarloaf Mtn (SW of Oakridge)... ... ... 81 mph (sust. 35-40 mph)

... Cascades...
Timberline (elev. 7001 ft)... ... ... ... . 99 mph (sust. 60 mph)
Govt Camp Ski Bowl... ... ... ... ... ... ... 90 mph

The forecast
The storm, with a central pressure of 965 mb, is expected to move ashore Tuesday morning over the British Columbia coast and weaken. The strongest winds and heaviest rain have already past for the coast, but the inland Cascade Mountain range will see another 4-6 inches of rain by Tuesday afternoon. Flooding is possible Tuesday on all the rivers in western Washington and Oregon.

Jeff Masters

2 FEET! (ELB82)
When I woke up this morning there was a good two feet of snow welcoming me! It's still coming down right now! I ♥ SNOW!
2 FEET!
Bear Creek (Stones)
Bear Creek floods and covers the trail.
Bear Creek

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301. sporteguy03
4:02 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
old blog
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5160
300. sporteguy03
4:02 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Old blog rules!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5160
299. NEwxguy
3:37 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
are the models still holding on to that storm for the 16th
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
298. NEwxguy
3:35 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
quiet here today
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
297. Bonedog
3:29 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
New Blog

Glad to hear NE
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
296. Cavin Rawlins
3:03 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
295. Cavin Rawlins
2:59 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Southern facing coasts of Hawaii

Today
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large short period wind waves.
Winds: W 21 to 28 knots
Seas: W 14 feet at 9 sec.

2Morrow
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Large long period swell.
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: NNW 13 feet at 14 sec.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
294. NEwxguy
2:48 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Gm all,no Bone,the city of everett is a bout 10 miles away,thankfully it looks like no serious injuries,but that must have been scary for the local neighborhood,people were running from flaming rivers of gasoline.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15595
293. Cavin Rawlins
2:48 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Look at this:

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
292. Cavin Rawlins
2:46 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
291. Floodman
2:17 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
That's eerie and some small cause for concern; NEXRAD shouldn't have problems like that. Makes me wonder what was going on (being an old IT guy with a bent towards Information Security it's a troubling event to me)
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
290. Cavin Rawlins
2:16 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
CDO Pattern CI number = Central Feature plus Banding Feature

Central Feature = about 1 degree latitude - CF 2.5

Banding Feature = BF 1.0

CI = 2.5 plus 1.0 = 3.5

3.5 corresponds to 55 Knots/984 mb





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
289. Bonedog
2:11 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
gotcha Flood. Just funny that they can not pull it out of the manuver. Just like yesterday when almost every NEXRAD station went down at 15Z then came back a few minutes later.

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
288. Floodman
2:06 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Bone, I think they planned it that way...seems I read something early in the season about the need for an "On-Station Correction"...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
287. Bonedog
1:40 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
thats great. they loose GOES-12. Well at least its not hurricane season
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
286. nrtiwlnvragn
1:38 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Subject: GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver (EXTENDED) UPDATE 1230
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------060302090207030708060409
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Details of the Outage:
*

A GOES-12 North-South Station Keeping maneuver will be performed on
Tuesday, December 4, 2007 at 1756 UTC.

*From 1715 UTC through 1944 UTC -- No GOES-12 Imaging or Soundings*

*EXTENDED: 12/4/2007, 1941 UTC, 2:41 PM, EST: *The SOCC supervisor
called ESPC
and said the GOES-12 maneuver will be extended until further notice
because they are having
problems coming out of the maneuver.

*UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing, we are not receiving
GOES-12 (EAST) data until further notice. We are taking in FULL DISK
images on GOES-11 (WEST) until the problem is resolved.

NOTE: Low Cloud Base Data to AWIPS is unrelated to the GOES-12 Anomaly.
Work is being done to resolve the problem as soon as possible.

UPDATE: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still ongoing. Problem is still being
investigated.

*****_UPDATE J-DATE 339 1230 UTC_: GOES-12 (EAST) Anomaly is still
ongoing, we are not receiving GOES-12 (EAST) data until further
notice. NOAA is looking into using GOES-10 for GOES-12(EAST)
operations.****
*
*
**Data Affected by the Outage:

*GOES-12 (East) Imaging and Soundings data

*Date and Time of the Outage:
*
12/4/2007, 1715 UTC, 12:15 PM, EST

*Length of the Outage:
*
Until further notice
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10883
285. Cavin Rawlins
1:33 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
CDO Pattern taking shape


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
284. Cavin Rawlins
1:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
ok..thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
283. Bonedog
12:55 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
yea weather nothing since dec 4 16:45z
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
282. Cavin Rawlins
12:42 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
I would like to know if anyone else is having the same problem with GOES-12/GOES-EAST Images not updating.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
281. Cavin Rawlins
12:17 PM GMT on December 05, 2007
Possible eye feature

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
280. Cavin Rawlins
11:52 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Daman looking impressive

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
279. pottery
11:51 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Thanks, Bone.
BBL to see whats going on. You have a good one today...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
278. Bonedog
11:48 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
NEwxguy are you anywhere around that tanker explosion?? If you are I hope your safe!!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
277. Bonedog
11:46 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
pottery I hope you get the rain thats needed. I know for you folks in the islands most if not all of you reley on that water tank so any moisture would be a big help.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
276. pottery
11:40 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Mornin', Mr.Bone.
There is plenty Pacific weather going on recently, with grief and hardship in the Maritimes apparently. Not nice.
The good news is, that there is a load of moisture in the Atlantic, heading my way, and we could use some of that rain here.
With luck, it will fill my new 1000 gal. watertank that I put up last week, before the dryseason arrives, " officialy ". Its been a dry wet season.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055
275. Bonedog
11:07 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Morning Folks

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
274. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:04 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.3S 177.2E - 40 knots 990 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [990 hPa] reported centered at 12.3S 177.2E as of 0600 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 40 knots close to the center increasing to 50 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Low Level Circulation Center just northeast of Rotuma. Overall organization good. Convective tops cooling over central feature. Outflow good to north and south. Dvorak Based on 0.7 wrap on LOG10 Spiral, yielding a Dvorak Intensity of 3.0. PAT agree but MET remains at 2.5, thus T3.0/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS.

System lies just south of a 250 hPa outflow axis downstream of an approaching short wave upper trough. Cyclone Daman is being steered west-southwest by a mid level ridge to the southeast. It is expected to gradually turn southward and last southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Global models agree on this track projection with some intensification

Forecast position and Intensity
=====================
13.1S 175.3E 45 kts
14.6S 174.8E 50 kts

Special Weather Bulletin for Rotuma
====================================
Expect winds over Rotuma to be damaging gale force with average wind speeds to 40 knots and momentary gusts to 55 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Sea flooding of low lying coastal area expected.

Gale Warning remains in force for Rotuma

The following information is provided especially for the mariner: Expect damaging gale force winds within 90 miles of center. Very Rough to high Seas with damaging heavy swells are likely.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
273. H2PV
5:05 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1205/p02s01-usgn.html


New report ranks U.S. teens 29th in science worldwide

"What once was the gold standard [for international education] is now not even at the OECD average, which shows you how much the world has changed," says Andreas Schleicher, who helped write the report. The US is average in the number of students at the highest levels of scientific literacy, but has a much larger pool – nearly 1 in 4 – at the bottom, Mr. Schleicher notes. "We have stand-alone studies that suggest these kids have grim prospects in the labor market," he says.
272. Skyepony (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on December 05, 2007

A pair of storms that slammed into the Pacific Northwest had much of the region under water Tuesday, leaving five people dead, thousands without power and major highways shut down
Well done article... They got slammed.


Big wave surfer dies at famed Ghost Trees surf spot
By RON HARRIS


SAN FRANCISCO

A big wave rider died Tuesday at the unforgiving surf break known as Ghost Trees, a Monterey County spot known for its fast-moving 20-foot and better waves.

Peter Davi, 45, of Monterey, lost his surfboard and was attempting to swim to shore, but never made it, witnesses told authorities. Friends of Davi lost sight of him and later found him floating in the water unconscious.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37376
271. DenverMark
4:30 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Hi Barefoot!
Wow, was this ever a Pineapple Express!! Hope things settle down in the Northwest for a while...this flooding is bad enough. Winds were incredible on parts of the OR coast. We've been out to Cape Meares...wouldn't want to be there with 114 mph gusts!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
270. Barefootontherocks
4:22 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Yo guys. Did you catch that dis kine storm is called a "Pineapple Express." Temp went from 28 on Saturday to 58 Monday. That tail you see and mention is typical when one of these events happens. The Columbus Day Storm I mentioned yesterday formed from remnants of a typhoon. "Pineapple Express" is a regular pattern for Pac NW, though usually not so severe.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18370
268. Feather3
4:07 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
we didn't get as much from it on the Mendocino coast of California, but were pounded by some of the winds and rains yesterday. *whew* Am glad it's over. . .!!

Feather
Member Since: December 12, 2003 Posts: 72 Comments: 2951
266. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:33 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04F DAMAN [CAT 1]
12.1ºS 177.7ºE - 35 knots 995 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Tropical Cyclone Daman [995 hPa] centered at 12.1S 177.7E as of 0200 UTC. Cyclone is intensifying with expected sustained winds of 35 to 40 knots close to the center increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect Gale Winds within 90 miles of the center in the eastern semi-circle.

Forecast position
=====================
near 12.9S 175.5E at 1400 UTC [05 Dec]
near 14.2S 174.3E at 0200 UTC [06 Dec]
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
265. Cavin Rawlins
3:07 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
lost track of the time...later
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
264. Cavin Rawlins
3:05 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Large Storm Pounds the Canadian Maritimes

Highest Gusts Today
Buoy 44150 - 50 Knots
Buoy 44139 - 47 Knots
Buoy 44138 - 43 Knots
Buoy 44141 - 41 Knots
SABLE, Canada (WSA) - 48 Knots
BACCARO POINT, Canada (WCP) - 51 Knots




Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
263. sporteguy03
2:54 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
If possible, avoid Seattle-Portland highway travel until floods recede. Rivers and streams continue to rise and additional highway and mountain pass closures are expected. If you must go, stay on the interstates. Note that the interstate detour route is 440 miles, takes at least seven hours during good weather and traffic conditions and is vulnerable to winter closures near Snoqualmie Pass.

Talk about getting sidetracked take almost a day just on a detour!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5160
262. Cavin Rawlins
2:50 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
anyone knows what happened to GOES...all images end at 1645 UTC
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
261. sporteguy03
2:44 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Wow what an amazing and yet devastating update in the PAC Coast! Dr.M your pictures rival 456's. Great job and great work on everyone updating his blogs.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5160
260. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:35 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
=============================
At 0:00 am UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five had 1 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The cyclone is moving west at 10 knots.

05P is expected to be 200 NM northwest of Suva, Fiji Island in 48 hours.

Significant wave height associated with 05P is 8 feet. The next tropical cyclone warning is later today at 1500 UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
259. extreme236
2:27 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2005DEC20 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:06:38 S Lon : 178:36:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -33.6C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 12:18:36 S Lon: 178:23:59 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
258. extreme236
2:23 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Oh and as STL pointed out earlier, the extratropical system that effected the Northwest US seems to have originated from one of the tropical depressions that formed in the wpac about 1 and a half weeks ago
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
257. Cavin Rawlins
2:17 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Veti Leva - one of the islands that make up the nation of Fiji, a beautiful tropical island.





Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
256. extreme236
2:13 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Well thats fairly impressive, the gale warning shows a 3mb drop in pressure since the tropical disturbance statement was issued about 3-4 hrs ago.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
255. extreme236
2:11 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Looks like this 04F might be the first of the TD's so far in the south pacific season with some potential
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
254. Cavin Rawlins
2:09 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Could affect the nation of Fiji down the road.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
253. H2PV
2:06 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Link



By midday Tuesday, Interstate 5 near Chehalis was covered in 10 feet of flood water.
252. Cavin Rawlins
1:50 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
night stormw
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
251. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:50 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
Regional Specialized Meteorological Service
Nadi, Fiji
Gale Warning Number One
130 UTC 05December
=========================
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [997 HPA]
11.9S 178.2E
Position Poor
Moving Westward at 15 knots

Remarks:
Clockwise winds may increase to 35 knots within 60 to 90 miles from the center in the next six to twelve hours.


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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