Treating scientists as bags of mostly water
During the holiday season, it's natural to ask philosophical questions such as, "what is the essence of being human?" Well, one way to answer that question is purely scientifically. Humans are mostly water (ugly bags of mostly water, according to Microbrain, Stardate 41463.9, Star Trek: The Next Generation,, Episode 17). More than half the human body is made up of water, and we can use that fact to measure how many humans are present at large gatherings. Such an experiment was performed at the 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, as reported in a November 2007 paper by Darin Desilets et al. of the University of Arizona. The experiment made use of the fact that cosmic rays are continually bombarding the earth, creating fast neutrons as a by-product of nuclear disintegrations. When these neutrons encounter large concentrations of hydrogen (such as found in ugly bags of mostly water), they get scattered. One can look at the resulting scattering pattern and deduce how much hydrogen is present, and make an estimation of the number of people present.
Figure 1. Ugly bag of mostly water (and co-founder of the Weather Underground) Perry Samson (right) poses in front of his Poster at the 2007 AGU meeting. Also pictured: Russ Rew and Mohan Ramamurthy of Unidata. Fast cosmic ray neutrons scattered from their bodies were used to help estimate the number of people present at the 2006 meeting.
The equipment needed to do so costs about $10,000, and was set up in the Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco during the 2006 AGU meeting. The scientists were able to show when lunch breaks occurred by pointing out a sharp reduction in neutron scattering when all the scientists filed out to grab a bite to eat. Desilets et al. estimated about 1,700 scientists were present in the Exhibit Hall of the convention center during the height of the conference, which is probably a reasonable estimate, given the stated capacity of 3575 people. The technique can also be used to perform measurements of water content of snow and soil, and Desilets et al. advertise that they are open to paid invitations to count crowds at Rio de Janerio's Carnival, Pamplona's running of the bulls, and the next World Cup Finals.
Happy New Year, everyone! I'll be back with a new blog on January 2.
Jeff Masters
References
Desliets, D., M. Zreda, T. Ferre, 2007, Scientist Water Equivalent Measured With Cosmic Rays at 2006 AGU Fall Meeting, EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 88, NO. 48, PAGE 521, 2007.
Reader Comments
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...human, or an ugly bag of water? Sobeit!
At least it wont be too bad as far as totals go
yup cold air outbreak
AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST, COLD AIR WILL BE ABLE TO FUNNEL DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GULF COAST ON THE 1ST, AND FLORIDA FOR THE 2ND AND 3RD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE IN PLACES NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD
Michael exactly not a true outbreak because it will be short lived but a good strong artic blast all the way to the Keys
going to be a wet one
This system is forecast to become subtropical in nature.
you aint kidding
This is on a different topic, but somewhat related to hurricane's.
Follow this link to a news story done on New Orleans population. Of course this is all guestimation done by a study, but it is interesting to see how New Orleans is coming along.
LINK
Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at 09:00 UTC (26Dec)
(1). Western Australia
==============================================
An area of convection (98S) located near 9.5S 116.5E or 35 NM poleward of the Lesser Sunda Island (Indonesia). Animated Multispectral Satellite Imagery and two Microwave Passes depict loosely organized convective bands wreapping towards a developing low level circulation center. Surface Observations through the Lesser Sunda Islands verify cyclonic turning and indicating pressure values near 1003 mb. Moreover, a broad axis of convergent low level westerly flow centered near 9.0S is evident in Quikscat Imagery and initialized in the latest global model fields. This flow will enhance the cyclonic environment over the next 24 hours.
Upper level anticyclone is developing just east of the disturbance providing favorable outflow and limiting vertical wind shear.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots. The potential of this disturbance to form into a signifant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
----------------------------------------------
Tropical Disturbance Summary issued at 18:00 UTC (26Dec)
(1). Western Australia
An area of convection (98S) located near 10.6S 116.1E or 100 NM south of the lesser Sunda Island (Indonesia). Animated infrared satellite imagery and SSMIS image depicts consolidating deep convection with a large area of convection persisting over the southwest quadrant. ASCAT Image depicts a low level circulation center with 20-25 knots winds near the center and 25-30 knots westerly winds northwest of the center. Available suface observations support the strong westerly flow north of the disturbance and also show surface low pressure near 1005 mb.
An upper level anticyclone is developing just to the east of the disturbance, providing favorable outflow and limiting vertical wind shear. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 mb. Based on the improved consolidating and defined low level circulation center, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to FAIR.
(2). Northern Territory
Area of convection (90P) previously near 10.4S 131.3E has dissipated and is now no longer considered for tropical cyclone development.
----------------------------------------
Regional Specialized Meteorological Center - Nadi, Fiji
Marine Bulletin 20:00 UTC 26Dec
===============================
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
17.0S 163.0W - 20kts 1006 hPa
Position Poor based on EIR/Visible Satellite Imagery
moving slowly
2230 UTC DEC 26 2007
Pattern Type: Curve band about 0.30 arc
Current Intensity: CI 1.5
Adjustments: None
Final Estimate: CI 1.5
Dvroak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
2200 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
19.0S 163.0W - 20 knots 1006 hPa
Tropical Disturbance Summary 2100z 26Dec
========================================
Tropical Disturbance 06F [1006 hPa] near 19.0S 163.0W as of 2100 UTC based on Multispectral Satellite Visible/Infrared/Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery and surface observation. System remains slow moving.
Convection has been persistent for the last 12 hours but has not increased or deepen much within the low level circulation center which lies to the west of the convection in a moderately sheared environment with strong shear to the south of the system associated with a intense ridge of high pressure at the surface.
Convection is mostly to the eastern and southern parts of 06F. Organization of system is fair with sea surface temperature around 27C. Global models slowly developing the system. The potential of this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Thanks
NWS Melbourne, Fl article ENSO & Major Freezes
Only two natural disasters have made me cry - Hurricane Katrina and that very same Tsunami. To see so many people drown that day was just heart-breaking and now this. When it comes to natural disasters (flood, landslides, earthquakes, active volcanoes and tsunamis) it seems Indonesia is a hot spot.
The worst landslides in 25 years have left up to 81 people dead or missing in Indonesia's Central Java province.
By late afternoon on Wednesday, 36 bodies had been recovered while 30 others were still buried under mud in Karang Anyar district near the Bengawan Solo river.
Thousands more people have been displaced by flooding.
A group of villagers had been celebrating after clearing mud from a home inundated during the torrential rains when the landslide hit them.
An official said: "At least 61 people were buried. They were having dinner together when they were hit by another landslide."
Indonesians struggle against extreme conditions
Residents are having to wade through neck-high waters and resuce attempts are hampered by the lack of access and heavy machinery.
The recovery of bodies is expected to take several days and the number of deaths is expected to rise.
In nearby Wonogiri district, one person was found dead and 17 others were missing when their homes were also hit by landslides after 12 hours of non-stop rain.
Julianto, a provincial official in Central Java, said that the landslides were the worst to hit the region in a quarter of a century.
Thousands of people have moved to shelters after their homes were buried or washed away. "The landslides took us by surprise," he said.
"This is the first time in the last 25 years anything of this scale occurred here in Central Java."
Thousands of houses were inundated on Wednesday, from Java to Sumatra to Sulawesi island, further east, witnesses and media reports said.
Eko Prayitno, a search and rescue chief, said hundreds of soldiers, police and volunteers are trying to get equipment to affected villages, but blocked roads are hampering their efforts.
Bridge collapse
In East Java, also experiencing heavy rains, at least 10 people were killed when a bridge was swept away by rising waters.
Andi Hartoyo, chief of police at Madiun district, told a local radio station: "Based on several witnesses, at least 10 people were swept away by strong currents as they were standing on the bridge when it collapsed.
"Local officials have been working on collecting data about missing people. We cannot start the search [for bodies or survivors] as the current is very strong now."
On the tourist island of Bali, two Indonesians were killed in a smaller landslide. It hit their home in a village in Gianyar district.
A policeman said: "The victims were asleep when a hill collapsed and engulfed their house."
The number of landslides in Indonesia is increasing as deforestation has meant that there is little vegetation to hold soil during the country's tropical downpours.
It is a particular problem in densly populated Java, where many people live on flood plains and near rivers.
TRMM Satellite Based Rain Accumulation for 1 week ending 1500 UTC 26 DEC 2007. The box outline indicates the country of Indonesia. The most intense was estimated at about 16 inches and based on TRMM past performance it was most likely around 20-25 inches.
Wednesday December 26, 2007 - 13:38 EDT
The weather bureau says monsoonal conditions are likely to continue across the Top End this week.
The Bureau of Meteorology's Patrick Ward says a monsoon trough developing in the Timor and Arafura seas will move closer to the Top End this week.
"We're expecting some heavy rain, possibly some localised flooding," he said.
Mr Ward says a low south of Java is expected to turn into a cyclone later this week, but he says it will not affect the Top End.
"It will affect the Pilbara coast, but not affect the Territory at all," he said.
Mr Ward says more cyclones are expected to form around the Territory this season and says people should have their yards clear of items that could become airborne missiles during a storm.
11.0S 117.0E - 998 hPa
A Tropical Low [998 hPa] is located near 11.0S 117.0E or 960 kms northwest of Broome drifting slowly south.
REMARKS - An active monsoon trough lies near 11S. Deep convection has increased over the last 24 hours. Over the next 24 hours the tropical low is expected to drift to the south. Gales are not expected along the coast within 48 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
===================================
Friday: High
Saturday: High
Sunday: High
Paul Graham, Thursday December 27, 2007 - 18:14 EDT
Tropical low pressure systems are deepening off the Queensland and northern Western Australian coasts, according to weatherzone.com.au. The lows are whipping up gales and large seas and there is a good chance of the Timor Sea low, about 1000 km northwest of Broome, developing into a tropical cyclone. It is too early to say whether or not this will affect Western Australia.
The Coral Sea low, about 450 km northeast of Rockhampton, is not in a favourable environment to turn into a tropical cyclone in the short term but this could change over the weekend. Even if it does not become a tropical cyclone it is still likely to reach intensities similar to a small tropical cyclone. It should move towards the southeast but may curve a little closer to the coast over the weekend and will be one to watch over the next few days.
- Weatherzone
© Weatherzone 2007
Ugly bags of water? Then all we really are is "fly repellant?"
"One of our guests recommended taking ziplock bags filled halfway with water and hanging them over the doorway. We laughed initially then said "what the heck! Let's try it!" We opened the front door and back door, hung the bags, and had NO FLIES in the house ALL DAY!!! I was told that flies see the bag and think they are flying into water, so they go the other way - AND because of their wide peripheral vison, the whole doorway looks to them like a body of water."
...oh well, so much for Decartes! Where's Jeff Goldbloom? lol
...now that's an "ugly" bag of water! lol
40:3:1:24:11S118E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0802UTC 27 DECEMBER 2007
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 90 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal two south [11.2S]
longitude one hundred and seventeen decimal five east [117.5E]
Recent movement : south at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 20 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots rough seas low to moderate swell, may increase to 30
to 40 knots rough seas moderate swell after 1200 UTC 28 December.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 27 December: Within 105 nautical miles of 12.2 south 117.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 28 December: Within 120 nautical miles of 13.4 south 118.0 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 25 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 27 December 2007.
WEATHER PERTH
Be safe, warm, and happy and don't spend all your quatloos in one place.
1157 UTC DEC 27 2007
Pattern Type: Bands estimated 0.30 arc
Current Intensity: CI 1.5
Adjustments: None
Final Estimate: CI 1.5
Dvorak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
2200 UTC DEC 26 2007 - CI 1.5
1157 UTC DEC 27 2007 - CI 1.5
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