Treating scientists as bags of mostly water
During the holiday season, it's natural to ask philosophical questions such as, "what is the essence of being human?" Well, one way to answer that question is purely scientifically. Humans are mostly water (ugly bags of mostly water, according to Microbrain, Stardate 41463.9, Star Trek: The Next Generation,, Episode 17). More than half the human body is made up of water, and we can use that fact to measure how many humans are present at large gatherings. Such an experiment was performed at the 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, as reported in a November 2007 paper by Darin Desilets et al. of the University of Arizona. The experiment made use of the fact that cosmic rays are continually bombarding the earth, creating fast neutrons as a by-product of nuclear disintegrations. When these neutrons encounter large concentrations of hydrogen (such as found in ugly bags of mostly water), they get scattered. One can look at the resulting scattering pattern and deduce how much hydrogen is present, and make an estimation of the number of people present.
Figure 1. Ugly bag of mostly water (and co-founder of the Weather Underground) Perry Samson (right) poses in front of his Poster at the 2007 AGU meeting. Also pictured: Russ Rew and Mohan Ramamurthy of Unidata. Fast cosmic ray neutrons scattered from their bodies were used to help estimate the number of people present at the 2006 meeting.
The equipment needed to do so costs about $10,000, and was set up in the Moscone Convention Center in San Francisco during the 2006 AGU meeting. The scientists were able to show when lunch breaks occurred by pointing out a sharp reduction in neutron scattering when all the scientists filed out to grab a bite to eat. Desilets et al. estimated about 1,700 scientists were present in the Exhibit Hall of the convention center during the height of the conference, which is probably a reasonable estimate, given the stated capacity of 3575 people. The technique can also be used to perform measurements of water content of snow and soil, and Desilets et al. advertise that they are open to paid invitations to count crowds at Rio de Janerio's Carnival, Pamplona's running of the bulls, and the next World Cup Finals.
Happy New Year, everyone! I'll be back with a new blog on January 2.
Jeff Masters
References
Desliets, D., M. Zreda, T. Ferre, 2007, Scientist Water Equivalent Measured With Cosmic Rays at 2006 AGU Fall Meeting, EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 88, NO. 48, PAGE 521, 2007.
Reader Comments
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OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. QUIKSCAT WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL
STRUCTURE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK TRAILING TROUGH. THE FSU
CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN
OCCLUDED LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK
AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
Surface - Weak Warm Core
Mid-Levels - Flat Thermal Core
Upper Levels - Weak Warm Core
Other profiles:
Deep circulation with a vertically stacked low pressure area.
Convergence strongest at 850-Surface
Divergence within the Eastern Quadrant near 250 hpa
Other Interesting Obs:
The circulations weakens gradually upwards.
Environment: SSTs: 75F
Wind Shear: 10-20 Knots
Upper Levels: capped by an upper low.
This system has all the subtropical characteristics of classic models.
Humans are mostly water (ugly bags of mostly water, according to Microbrain, Stardate 41463.9, Star Trek: The Next Generation,, Episode 17
456 why isn't Antarctica blue like the Artic?
I think it has to do with the seasons (winter up north; summer down south). I would have to look at an image taken in July to verify that. Much of the area north/south of 60 degrees is a mystery to me.
456 what would you put intensity at??
They have a separate estimate similar to the Dvorák for subtropical cyclones which I have not learned as yet. But if I was to apply the tropical Dvorak to it (which can be inaccurate):
Pattern: Shear CI 1.5
Hebert-Poteat technique
U also have the: Which is fun to learn
Extratropical transition technique
maybe its because of the ozone hole on the atmosphere
i see we now have 90L
Link
and here is the T # for 90L
Link
then with convection over the center then we got something =P
90L is here
The blog with soon be open for business
For a New Year's Party
Lets think about it. If they do indeed give it a name from 2008 they would avoid much controversy over the season and season predictions. I would not be surprised either way.
Action: | Ignore User
While that maybe true...they should still do their job despite what people may say or think and by that.....Naming it Aurthur only after the stroke of mid-night (which ever time zone they use).
But heck..the NHC could do what they want..they are the authority. Either way....it got named.
Its lacking convection in 3/4 parts. The convection that it does have is displaced to the north of the surface center.
It is important to note...the upper trough not decay too fast. The core is keeping wind shear low over the system.
why is there a little hole like a eye on water vapor because thats precisely where the center is and i dont remember seeing this on water vapor before
Its also the center of mid-level sinking. Thats why subtropical depression are sometimes refer to as "mid-tropospheric cyclones". They have there greatest intensity at 500 mb.
Remember when I posted the vertical porfile of the system.
355. Weather456 8:29 PM AST on December 28, 2007
Looking at the data..I constructed a simple temperature profile of the STD.
Surface - Weak Warm Core
Mid-Levels - Flat Thermal Core
Upper Levels - Weak Warm Core
No smoking in vehicles with kids under age 18 and holding local municipalities at least partially liable for flood damage if they approve development without taking flood risk into consideration are two new California laws taking effect January 1.
The ban against smoking in cars where there are minors applies whether the vehicle is moving or not. However, a peace officer must have first stopped the vehicle for another violation, such as expired plates, before a citation can be issued for smoking. The fine for the smoking violation is $100.
A law requiring a person riding a bicycle when it's dark to use lights and reflectors while riding on a sidewalk, bikeway or highway takes effect Tuesday.
Minimum wage workers will receive a 50-cent-an-hour raise with the new year. That will boost California's minimum wage to $8 an hour, the second highest minimum wage in the nation after Washington state's. Massachusetts' minimum wage also increases to $8 an hour January 1.
The parents or guardians of first-time juvenile gang offenders could be required to attend parenting classes under court order under another new law.
And for those with gift cards with less than $10 left on balance, stores will have to cash out the remaining value to customers.
i got confused when i saw 90L with his little eye =P
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
500 PM PST FRI DEC 28 2007
AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS...THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
PACIFIC FORECAST TO BRING RAIN FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN...SHOULD IT VERIFY...WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY
RESULT IN SOME SMALL STREAM AND URBAN PONDING ISSUES GIVEN
ACCUMULATED RAINFALLS IN EXCESS OF 6" IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
NORTH BAY COUNTIES. PRODUCT "SFOHWOMTR" HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
REFLECTS THE CONCERN FOR VERIFICATION OF THE MODELS SOLUTION.
AGAIN...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS LIKELY WITH SUCH A SOLUTION. HOWEVER...
WAVELENGTH VERY LONG BETWEEN WEST COAST AND NEXT UPSTREAM TROF.
MODELS MAY BE STRETCHING TO PUSH ZONAL FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA COAST FOR
NEEDED RAIN PATTERN BASED ON EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS. ALSO THE INITIAL
MOISTURE SURGE FOR THURSDAY MAY BE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE ALONG THE SOCAL COAST AND THEREFORE HEAVIER PRECIP
MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. NONETHELESS...HAVE
CONTINUED FLAG THAT LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND PROVIDING MOIST AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP PATTERN FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IMPERATIVE THAT
FORECASTS BE MONITORED FOR UPDATED INFORMATION SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
If anyone is interested I added some new photos from some of my travels up north. I am finally getting around to organizing some of my pictures and thought I'd share a few. If I can find them, I'll be adding some great storm pictures from Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri from earlier this year so check back!
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 70 knots by 1800 UTC 29December.
Hurricane-Force winds within 20 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 29 December with very high to phenomenal seas and heavy swell.
Storm-Force Winds within 45 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Gale-Force Winds within 90 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas and moderate swell.
Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warnings
=====================
A CYCLONE WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Mardie to Wallal including Port Hedland and Karratha Dampier.
A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for remaining coastal parts between Broome and Coral Bay, extending inland to include Nanutarra and Marble Bar.
Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS - 19.1S 117.5E 70 knots [CAT 3]
48 HRS - 20.4S 116.0E 85 knots [CAT 3]
where did 95L go if the last one was 94L??? why did they name this 90L is this the 1st for 2008 is that why they name it 90L and not 95L?? so would this be the 1st name storm of 2008 ???
----
The Satellite Service and Division will probably change the ID code when National Hurricane Center gives it its proper invest number.
QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN OCCLUDED LOW.
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