Postcards from the Orlando Hurricane Conference
I'm in Orlando this week for the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. The conference, held once every two years, brings together the world's experts on hurricane science. A few snapshots from this morning's talks:
HWRF hurricane model improvements for 2008
Naomi Surgi of NOAA oulined the progress with the new HWRF model, which debuted last year. The HWRF model outperformed the GFDL model in the Atlantic last year for forecasting hurricane tracks. The GFDL had consistently been the best-performing model for forecasting hurricane tracks in recent years, so this is good news. The HWRF model is intended to eventually replace the GFDL model. However, neither the HWRF or GFDL model performed as well as the GFS model last year, so there is room for the HWRF to improve. New for 2008 for the HWRF model is the ability to include real-time Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft for initialization of the model. There are also upgrades to the equations governing the model's physics, plus improvements in how the model is initialized. These improvements should make for much improved intensity forecasts beyond 48 hours, Dr. Surgi showed. That's good news, because intensity forecasting has shown very little improvement over the past 15 years, despite a near doubling in the improvement in track forecasts.
Dust from Africa
Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin showed that dust blowing off the coast of Africa has a very strong impact on Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Atlantic, amounting to 0.1°C to 1.0°C annually. Dr. Evan showed that most of the warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs in recent years can be explained by variations in the amount of dust coming off the coast of Africa. In particular, 2005 had very little dust, resulting in unusually high SSTs that help lead to the record breaking Hurricane Season of 2005, with its record 28 named storms.
Influence of Gulf Stream Loop Current on Katrina's intensity
Hurricane Katrina explosively deepened when it passed over an unusually far northern extension of the warm Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, and a Warm Core Eddy that had broken off from the Loop Current. Richard Yablonsky and Isaac Ginis of the University of Rhode Island showed that if the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current had been in its normal position, and no Warm Core Eddy had been present, Katrina would have had a pressure more than 20 mb higher and maximum sustained winds at least 20 mph lower. The study was done using the GFDL model.
I'll have more postcards from the Orlando hurricane conference every day this week. One other highlight from this morning: seeing the 5-year old daughter of one the participants entertain herself by setting up a little diorama complete with ponies, unicorns, and fairies on the floor outside of the main session this morning. Who needs Disney World to entertain a kid in Orlando!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index
Which as recent years show..are meaningless.
Version 1 TC NARGIS V-max 84 knots Link
Check with Dr. Gray though. Im sure its forecasted..LOL
Gray has a need to strongly suggest the data is wrong,since his view on it differs from the Universities.
He hypes the side he favors.All well and good.But since he spoke up in Dec 06...the data has put him on the defensive.
Its the attitude..they differ on.
He willy-nillys others data sets..and holds his up as Gospel.
Bad way to fly..in the business he's in.
hope we don't get into trashing Dr. Gray today,he's contributions to tropical predictions and what effects the tropical season is documented.He and his colleagues have done a great job.But as the last couple of seasons have shown,predicting how all the different conditions are going to set up is still a problem.
What else would you expect? He contradicts a theory that is widely accepted around these parts.
The sheep continue to herd....
Im a free thinker.
I post Dr. Grays view...and the recent controversy around it.I give no Personal Opinion on it
You just post..
Re # 260 I give no Personal Opinion on it
Re: #251 Dr.Gray needs to exit stage right along with his Forecasts.
Sounds like an opinion to me.
Get a Blog..do an entry.
Jackonsville isnt that scary is it?
Im reaching too..LOL
After hitting the coast, Nargis should move East over the inland hills of Myanmar. It will be a rain-maker and we may read about flooding and mudslides in some areas. Hopefully, Nargis stays on the projected path.
Why the weakening projection? Sea surface temps are almost ideal for tropical development, and very little wind shear is present. Nargis' forward speed will increase as it moves to the East, but not enough to impede strengthening. Why the downgrade projections (from Cat-4 two days ago, Cat-3 this morning, Cat-2 latest)?
dr gray, as everyone in the business has to do a lot of guessing, weather is never 100% accurate.
and like it or not, his guessing is or was better than anyone else's and that is why every time he decides to say how many storms there will be a season everyone pays attention.
if you consider your talent to be better developed than his, be my guest and start sending your annual predictions to the nation.
It's generally not the ones in politics who are wealthy, it is those who have the politicians in their pockets.
I think the fuel prices are hurting more then just the poor, aviation for instance is hurting.
Every one has one and theirs is the best.
They serve NO purpose other than controversy.
And an Oilman President rants within this Hour about how a Refinery hasnt been built in the US since 78-79.
I should know.Shell built it here in Norco. La.along with a Ethylene Plant we did the furnaces for too.We Being Pullman /Kelloggthen.Now Its another entity.
Non-union.Kellogg Brown & Root
EPA regulations, and Govt permitting processes have kept America hostage to the Saudis.
Not Congress.One can have a Billion BBLs of oil from Domestic or Foreign imports,but you can refine it all at a fixed,finite known rate.
Best learn and google the term,Catcracker, or Cataltyic Crude Oil Processing. Its going to get a lot of media play the next few weeks.
Oh,and the Saudi Big Robes are coming for another vist.
Shear doesn't look that strong, but it doesn't look as tightly would with good banding features as it did yesterday evening.
2007 at a glance Link
"Global warming will be the biggest cash in for poloticans the world has ever seen.With taxes on fuel and fines the poor will be poorer and those in polotics will be wealthy.What a crime and a hoax.Open your wallets and do and think what those in power tell you."
Didn't the price of crude make a run at $120 a barrel last week? Gasoline is $3.60 per gallon nationally. I think we are paying off the wrong people, which are the energy companies such as Exxon Mobile. Wasn't the whole logic behind all these tax breaks to the energy companies to provide us with commodities at a reasonable price?
It looks to me that the Bush energy policy is a total bust.
We believe what makes us comfortable, all the time.
I see that this blog hasnt changed much......Same ole know-it-alls stirring up controversy. Dr. Gray has forgotten more weather knowledge than you critics will ever know. LOL
It's a media thingy.........
The government can not continue to print money and interject it into the economy - that multiplies inflation - it's Economics 101. The stimulus money being issued is reportedly only going to help grocery stores and discounters to help folks buy meat and eggs - not TV's, clothes, etc.
Oil prices, largely, are at the mercy of the dollar's value. A weaker dollar, simply means that it takes more dollars to buy oil.
However, it's going to be a sad state when a wheelbarrow full of money still can't buy anything - and there's also little to buy.
Lean times - I expect 2009 to be even leaner. It'll be interesting to see how we "weather" this storm.
weatherboyfsu - good observation. LOL.
Don't blame the refineries. They are doing everything possible to increase production and maintain flow of product at reasonable prices.
Regarding the TROPICAL WEATHER (hint), we all need to hope the Houston, Freeport, Baytown and Port Arthur, Texas areas are hurricane free this year. If crude oil supply has driven prices this high... shut down a few refineries for a month and watch what happens to the pricing.
A major hurricane impact to the Houston ship channel or Baytown may not be as dramatic as Katrina... but it will affect this nation as much or more. Forget pricing... can we say "Gas Rationing"? No kidding.
I've been wanting to post a similiar thing for some time. But good manners prevented me doing that. I still feel that I am an outsider, in an American forum here. Good one.
But note, there are some freaks on here that will probably hit you with an 'ignore' for that one. heheheheh
Except their intimate knowledge of nothing.. or skirting around what they really want to say and to whom. LOL!!!!!
Lets hope Hurricane activity in the GOM is at a minimum this year.
Our recreational shrimping (inshore, with lights & dip nets) seems to be ending early this year, like '06 &'07, but unlike '04 & '05. The weather (wind driven currents, rain/salinity, water temps, etc. maybe even African dust - who knows) have a lot to do with it. Do the shrimp know something we (Dr. Gray - LOL) doesn't?
worry when a Threat develops.
Take action when told to do so.
Anticipate evacuations and be ready to do so when asked.
Rant over..LOL
CAT-5 Shrimp from the GOM
Viewing: 251 - 301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 — Blog Index