Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

()

Categories: Flood

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 501 - 551

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 — Blog Index

501. ejstrick 5:22 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Anyone want to talk tropics? Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 894

502. JLPR 5:24 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
looks like that new area of convection is expanding quickly =O Im wondering how that area will look at 7am? =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

503. Stormchaser2007 5:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
502. Well the Dmax's Max is at 4am so by that time it should look impressive...they might call this thing an invest or even a depression once the sun comes up.IMo Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

504. Stormchaser2007 5:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
501. well sure....its a tropics blog. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

505. weatherblog 5:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
CATL wave is building lots of convection and organizing...hmmm...I don't want to sound "wishcasting" as some of you guys put it, but it seems possible to have a short-lived TS. Well, regardless of development, it would get destroyed by wind shear once it were to enter the caribbean. But, once the positive MJO comes into play, wind shear will likely decrease across the atlantic basin, and we will more than likely see some TWAVES take advantage of that...especially once they enter the caribbean. Right now I'm thinking a Dennis/Emily scenario is possible during July; but, I'm definately not expecting a category 4/5 hurricane. Not at all...lol Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

506. JLPR 5:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I bet this could be a invest no doubt about it =) not a TD, not yet, it needs a better circulation but if it really explodes in D-max and mantains the convection during the day the circulation should then slowly start to get better Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

507. weatherblog 5:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
503. Stormchaser2007 5:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 502. Well the Dmax's Max is at 4am so by that time it should look impressive...they might call this thing an invest or even a depression once the sun comes up.IMo That would be suprising. Imagine what Dr. Masters would think...lol It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

508. JLPR 5:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
507. weatherblog 5:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 lol =D He probably wrote the blog without noticing our little wave =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

509. CaneAddict 5:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I'm in and out. In my opinion the disturbance in the Central Atlantic is not at all near depression status quite yet, more organization is neccessary before this area could be designated a Tropical Depressipn. - More convection needed - More consolidation of the convection - Evidence of a definite closed surface circulation - More intense convection In my opinion there still is quite a bit of organization that must occur before Tropical Depression 2 is declared. Night all! Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151

511. weatherblog 5:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
506. JLPR 5:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 I bet this could be a invest no doubt about it =) not a TD, not yet, it needs a better circulation but if it really explodes in D-max and mantains the convection during the day the circulation should then slowly start to get better Agree 100%...that's why I said it would be suprising if it becomes a TD by morning. It's not quite there yet...though I have seen worse looking tropical storms. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

513. JLPR 5:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Agree 100%...that's why I said it would be suprising if it becomes a TD by morning. It's not quite there yet...though I have seen worse looking tropical storms. thats very true maybe if this wave were closer to land it would be already 92L Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

514. Stormchaser2007 5:36 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I can understand hw you think that this needs more time CA but.....the thing is if this wave keeps moving north west theres not gonna be anymore time fer it to organize. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

515. Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
511. (cough* cough) Barry..... Member Since:* June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

517. JLPR 5:38 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
and since quikscat froze I checked Ascat I dont like it because it is in strips =P but it seems this pass captured the east side of the pretty decent circulation the wave has. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

518. Stormchaser2007 5:39 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
same JFV...it comes out at 1:50 though. If the NHC doesnt mention it then i give up on them completely because thats just being ignorant. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

519. weatherblog 5:39 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
512. JFV 5:35 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 I'm waiting for the TWO to be released at 2am by the NHC folks! lol... Me too. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

520. Stormchaser2007 5:40 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
The not so little wave that could.... Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

523. JLPR 5:42 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
umm they dont seem to worry about our little wave... 000 ABNT20 KNHC 280523 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER AVILA Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

524. Stormchaser2007 5:43 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
521. ROFL...they better other wise im pretty sure ill flip out! Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

525. weatherblog 5:44 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
515. Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 511. (cough* cough) Barry..... Yes...the only reason I believe it was declared a TS was because #1) It was in the GOM #2) it had a closed circulation. And neither of those match for our CATL wave... so it'll take the NHC a little while to notice this one. thats very true maybe if this wave were closer to land it would be already 92L* (JLPR) I agree. lol...hence statement #1 up above. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

526. Stormchaser2007 5:44 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Wow....uhh is guess its time to go to bed then...(walks away from computer twitching). Good night guys!! Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

527. weatherblog 5:45 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Wow...I think maybe the NHC fell asleep. Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

528. JLPR 5:46 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well lol maybe they dont see much hope for the wave =P night stormchaser =) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

530. JLPR 5:47 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
when is the next two? Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

531. weatherblog 5:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well, regardless of development with the wave, it certainly is interesting to watch... G'night! Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

532. JLPR 5:48 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
oh question answered lol =) night JFV =) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

533. JLPR 5:50 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
night weatherblog =) Well I guess im going from this blog lol good night everyone =) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

534. weatherblog 5:52 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good night, JLPR and everyone else! Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623

535. HurakanPR 6:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
No ice cap is the same as wearing a black clothes, the heat gets absorbed and the cold air spread southward, not a pretty picture. Think about it. The wave is pretty impresive, but to far from land for the NHC to call it an invest, i think. They only do that if it represents a threat to land in a day or two, not the case here.

536. 0741 6:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
535. HurakanPR 6:15 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 No ice cap is the same as wearing a black clothes, the heat gets absorbed and the cold air spread southward, not a pretty picture. Think about it. The wave is pretty impresive, but to far from land for the NHC to call it an invest, i think. They only do that if it represents a threat to land in a day or two, not the case here. that not case i see invest in that area only reason their not talk about it because it not yet season for it form in that area plus it little far south

537. 7544 6:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
very nice form of convection now buliding with out catl wave if it was closer to the west they prob. would have tag it 92l by down with its consisity at 3am this wave might get better dress tonight Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

538. 7544 6:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 511. (cough* cough) Barry..... i agree this may just suprise us just like jvr did hes never here at this time hahaha Member Since:* May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

539. 7544 7:05 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Stormchaser2007 5:37 AM GMT on June 28, 2008 511. (cough* cough) Barry..... ill have to agree with this it just might surpise us just like jfv whos never here at this time hahaha hey welcome to the night shift tropic watch jfv Member Since:* May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

540. SpaceThrilla1207 7:19 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Actually, this storm looks better than 96L of last year...I'd actually give the edge to this CATL low over 96L. I still see zero chance for development though. When climotology says no, no means no. It won't happen that far out in late June.

541. SpaceThrilla1207 7:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Guys, don't say that the NHC is "asleep at the wheel" or anything. The NHC does their jobs the right way. After all, how often do you see tropical depressions/storms form WHEN THE NHC FORECASTS NO DEVELOPMENT? Almost never. How often do you see a storm develop when they don't even mention something at all? Never. I'm giving this a 0% percent chance of development; 20% chance if they had mentioned it.

542. JLPR 9:20 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Very well its 5:00Am and the tropical wave is looking good =P And now with visible imagery we can get a better look and see if there is a surface low or not =) The wave deserves to be tagged 92L. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

543. KoritheMan 9:21 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I still see zero chance for development though. When climotology says no, no means no. .It won't happen that far out in late June. Oh, really? This says otherwise: Tropical Depression Two (2000): It was a *Cape Verde Storm* in June. Didn't reach tropical storm status, but nonetheless became a tropical cyclone. After all, how often do you see tropical depressions/storms form WHEN THE NHC FORECASTS NO DEVELOPMENT? Almost never. I've found the opposite to be the case. How often do you see a storm develop when they don't even mention something at all? Never. This I can agree with. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

544. SpaceThrilla1207 9:23 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It will NOT develop! There is too much dust! Even if it becomes 92L (which it won't), it will not develop. I agree with JP.

545. KoritheMan 9:26 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
It will NOT develop! There is too much dust! Seems to be doing well so far. Convection is building again within the last few frames. Even if it becomes 92L (which it won't), it will not develop. I agree with JP. Invests aren't formed, they are declared. Big difference. And everyone (myself included) will have to eat crow sometimes. Not saying you're wrong, because quite honestly, I don't think the wave will be distinct on satellite imagery within the next 24 hours. I'm just saying that you need to be prepared for the impossible to happen with weather, even when climatology says no. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

546. SpaceThrilla1207 9:28 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
So you agree zero percent chance of development with this one? How about the one the GFS has been predicting off Africa for the last 16 model runs?

547. JLPR 9:30 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well nothing has a zero chance give it a 1% at least lol =) Well im out see you guys later Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

548. KoritheMan 9:32 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
So you agree zero percent chance of development with this one? How about the one the GFS has been predicting off Africa for the last 16 model runs? I agree with zero percent chance of development out here in the central Atlantic, but not because of climatology. Conditions are simply aren't favorable for it. In addition, the wave is too far south to feel the full effects of the Coriolis force and develop spin. Not even Felix developed this far south, I don't think. Now, if the wave survives its passage through the unfavorable shear caused by the TUTT (which should lift out within the next week or so and be replaced by more favorable easterlies), then we need to watch it, since it may be able to develop closer to home. As for the storm the GFS has been predicting, that's certainly a possibility, in spite of what climatology says. Bertha of 1996 formed on July 5 near the Cape Verde Islands, becoming the earliest Cape Verde storm on record. It also became a major hurricane, becoming one of only few July major hurricanes in the Atlantic. So if Bertha can do it, this wave can too. Normally I would say climatology wins the battle of the GFS storm, but I've heard conditions are supposed to be favorable when the wave that is predicted to develop comes off. Something to watch. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

549. KoritheMan 9:33 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Well nothing has a zero chance give it a 1% at least lol =) My bad. =) Later, JLPR. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

550. NC0WX0Man 9:50 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
I agree I believe the wave out in the ATL will not be declared an invest and will dissipate right before it reaches the islands. Conditions are unfavorable thats my reason why and nothing to do with climatology. Good morning by the way.

551. KoritheMan 9:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2008
Good morning, NC0WX0Man. I'm out for now, all. Later. Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15474

Viewing: 501 - 551

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters