Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Midwest flood price tag $8 billion; Extreme Weather magazine review

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on June 27, 2008

The American Farm Bureau, a lobbying group that represents American farmers, estimated yesterday that crop damage from the Midwest's Flood of 2008 has amounted to $7 billion. More than half of this total--$4 billion--was in Iowa. Other states taking a hit from excessive wetness and flooding were: Illinois, $1.3 billion; Missouri, $900 million; Indiana, $500 million; Nebraska $500 million; and an additional $1 billion in remaining wet states. When added to the at least $1 billion in property damage the floods wrought (including $762 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the $8 billion price tag of the Midwest Flood of 2008 ranks as the second most expensive U.S. non-hurricane flooding disaster on record. America's worst flood, the Midwest Flood of 1993, caused $26.7 billion in damage (adjusted to 2007 dollars).

The damage will continue to rise in coming days, as major flooding continues along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers. A levee broke along the Mississippi just north of St. Louis this morning, sending flood waters towards the small town of Winfield. Heavy rains in excess of five inches have hit much of northern Missouri this week (Figure 1), and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of heavy rain in the region today through Saturday morning. The culprit is a slow-moving low pressure system over Minnesota, which will drag a cold front through Missouri tonight. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will fall in some areas along the front. The additional rain should keep the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers in Missouri above flood stage for an extra day or two. Currently, these rivers are expected to reach their highest crests sometime between Monday June 30 and Wednesday July 2. The forecast looks somewhat drier for the Midwest next week, thankfully. The jet stream has regularly been taking a major dip southward into the Central U.S. the past two months, putting the favored track for rainy low pressure systems over the Midwest. The jet often gets "stuck" in a high-amplitude trough-ridge pattern which causes drought in one part of the country (California in this case) and floods in another. This "stuckness" often lasts for 3 months. The current 2-week forecast from the GFS and ECMWF models predicts a continuation of the "stuck" jet stream pattern, but decreasing in amplitude and sliding more to the east. This should result in the favored storm track moving more towards the East Coast, relieving flooding in the Midwest.

Figure 1. Precipitation for the 7 days ending on Friday, June 27, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA.

Review of the new magazine, Extreme Weather

A beautiful new weather magazine called Extreme Weather has hit the bookstores this month. Published by Astronomy magazine, the new magazine features some truly spectacular weather photos, including a 12-page "Weathergallery" with awesome shots of tornadoes, lightning, floods, supercells, hail, hurricane winds, and waterspouts. The first article of the magazine features the equally fantastic photos of storm chaser Warren Faidley, who also happens to be the best writer among professional storm chasers, in my opinion. Additional articles in Extreme Weather include a balanced and interesting look at the hurricanes/global warming connection, plus some quality articles on dust storms, super cell thunderstorms, lightning, and the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Extreme Weather is not yet a regular publication; the editors are gauging interest to see if they wish to make it so. I whole-heartedly encourage them to do so--this magazine rocks! You can order a copy at their website, it's $7.95.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

500 Year Flood 2008 (UlaratheBard)

Iowa Flooding - Palo Iowa - The entire town of Palo Iowa was evacuated and was told to abandon due to flooding during the recent flooding of the the Cedar River and local water ways. During it's abandonment it was under military control. A week later the towns folk were allowed to re-enter their town to assess damage and begin clean-up. The town was devasted as you can see. Due to the fact the entire town was under water, their have been no coordinated efforts for donations, volunteer work, etc... plus, they've just been allowed back into their town and only during daytime hours. I'm sure they could use all the help they could get.

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201. stoormfury 10:14 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
drak the CATL wave Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2304

202. kmanislander 10:14 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
I doubt the QS pass has downloaded already. I just looked at the descending pass but do not believe that is for today. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

203. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:14 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
boris wv image as of 557 est indicates a weakening in vapour levels and a warming of tops Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

204. extreme236 10:17 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
If you notice that real close to TD 3E is a large cloud deck, this indicates the system is approaching a stable air mass that should inhibit much strengthening. 35 knots from this system at best. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

205. Stormchaser2007 10:18 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
203 Yeah i can see that but there warming ever so slightly....well based on SSD water vapor loops Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:20 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
there is a third area se of boris flareing up and showing organization with big sis out front showing cooling tops with increasing convection ramping up now we also have an area of interest in central atlantic as well with tops cooling and increasing Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

207. stoormfury 10:21 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
is catl disturbance soon to be 92L ??? Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2304

208. Stormchaser2007 10:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
207. Well we will see in the 8pm TWO Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

209. Drakoen 10:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
The 700mb-surface steering will have the system in the CATL moving to the West. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:25 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
no lacks organization and convective areas all small but slowly increasing its a wait watch and see program Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

212. Stormchaser2007 10:27 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

213. Drakoen 10:27 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
The GFS 18z is going farther south with system so far. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:27 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
its small got to cook a little more few more hrs should tell Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

215. extreme236 10:30 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Well the catl wave is certainly interesting. Still disorganized but seems to have some sort of sfc or mid level circulation. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:34 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
jp 33/17 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

218. Drakoen 10:39 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
GFS 18z is still developing the system of Africa. It's interesting that the mid to upper level trough that was suppose to create a weakness between the two highs does not appear to be strong enough to do so, allowing the lower to mid level ridge to build to the north making the system take a more westerly course. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

221. stoormfury 10:45 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
is the diminishing advetion of moisture from south america as a result of weakening of the TUTT and it's slow movement to the northeast? Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2304

222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:48 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
boris is about to explode just catching its breath Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
location of your cirulation in atlantic jp Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
or close to it Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:51 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
33w17n Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

228. nash28 10:52 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Only 8 days left to nail my July 5th cane date!!!! C'mon !!!! LOL! Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

230. Stormchaser2007 10:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Keeper you mean 7n? 17n is way above the disturbance..... Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

231. JRRP 10:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

232. hurricane23 10:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
228. nash28 6:52 PM EDT on June 27, 2008 Only 8 days left to nail my July 5th cane date!!!! C'mon !!!! LOL! Might have to extend that date a bit. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13278

233. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
7 jp 7 watchin 4 things at once here stepping back from computer Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40659

235. Drakoen 10:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
The trends have been more to the south and west. Here's a view of all of the tracks from today's GFS models runs with the red line being the most current (18z) run. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

236. Stormchaser2007 10:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Drak, do you think that the wave will develop?? Let alone even come off of Africa? Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

237. nash28 10:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
We'll see Adrian. If the GFS can get this one right, we'll have a closed low popping off the African coast in 72hrs. If that verifies, it leaves five days to traverse into warmer SST's... Maybe, just maybe:-) Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

238. nash28 10:57 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
I will say, I would be a bit surprised to have a Cape Verde hurricane in the first week of July... Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

239. Patrap 10:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Wish and Ships.. ..er, I mean Fish and Chips. GFSx 10-Day thru 0Z 7July Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

240. severstorm 10:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
hey Nash28 hows the rain been down there below Tampa kinda keeps missing me here in zephyrhills Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

241. nash28 11:01 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Hey Severstorm!!! Here in Apollo Beach has finally been good all week except for today. Each day this week we got pounded around mid afternoon. The SKEW-T soundings this morning were VERY promising with PWATS again approaching 2.0, CAPE values around 3000 J/KG and LI again near -10c which indicated possibility of hail. Not one drop yet:-) So much for the soundings:-) Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

242. nash28 11:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Heya Pat. How are ya man? Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

243. Drakoen 11:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
236. Stormchaser2007 10:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2008 Drak, do you think that the wave will develop?? Let alone even come off of Africa? It's possible that the GFS is correct. I don't really see anything noteworth over Africa currently maybe that area of convection over Central Africa. We'll get a better idea of what we are dealing with over the weekend. Western Africa is forecast to receive a lot of rain particularly in the southwestern portion. Heavy rains seems likely regardless of low pressure development. I looked over the NOGAPS model and while it did not show development it did show something broad but closed at 700mb of the African coast around the same time frame. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

244. JRRP 11:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
I think the GFS now is looking at the high pressure of 1032mb to the north of the future system Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

246. Patrap 11:04 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
No worries mate. I'd say the ol Atlantic is just as advertised for 27 June,.. 000 ABNT20 KNHC 271734 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

247. nash28 11:05 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
It is early. June is supposed to be boring. Most of July should be as well. Now, what Mother Nature decides to do, well you know.... Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

249. JLPR 11:07 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
That wave between 30-35 W sure looks interesting =P Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

250. Patrap 11:08 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion Link 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS Link Sat imagery Link A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111633

251. severstorm 11:13 PM GMT on June 27, 2008
well Nash28 good to see someone is getting the rain same old here since charly in 04 they keep comming and splitting then redevelope on the other side of us get a chance send some this way TIA LOL Member Since: November 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

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