Bertha may pose a long-range threat to the U.S.
Tropical Storm Bertha has maintained it's strength overnight, but is having trouble with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 25°C--one degree below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Bertha, but last night's pass confirmed winds of at least 40mph. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength have consistently put the storm's strength at 50 mph over the past day. The storm is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Bertha.
The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. Bertha may be large enough to bring tropical storm force winds 100-200 miles from the center by Tuesday. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about 7-10 days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.
By Sunday morning, Bertha will be over SSTs of 26°C, which will warm to 27°C by Monday and 28°C Tuesday. this should allow Bertha to intensify to near Category 1 hurricane strength. However, by Tuesday, wind shear is expected to increase to 20 knots and remain high for several days, as Bertha encounters a branch of the subtropical jet stream. The higher shear should weaken the storm.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.
I'll post an update by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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stsimons is 100% right.
The wishcasting is out of control here.
Who is wishcasting? I guess no one reads Dr. Masters blogs when he does his outlooks.
yes slu iam always watchin just daytime heating effect
there seems to be a rotation with the clouds and also observations from Tampico and the NOAA buoys
Forward speed-if it holds may limit intensity but a strong CAT1 or maybe 2 is a possibility.
In any event, sadly, it is common for folks to lose their lives in "just" a tropical storm.
Tree limbs, trees, car wreck, tornados, flooding, etc.
I was hoping for a NW turn a few days ago and I think there was some support for it. Still is some support for a northward component.
Things change.
Staying open to all the possibilities is important. Hard to keep one's objectivity sometimes. We all struggle with that.
So if it moves at the right speed then 100m of 26c water should be enough to promote whatever intensification the other conditions at that time support.
I don't think Bertha will be anything over a CAT three at worst, but I know enough to know that I can always be wrong. I'm also not convinced it ever makes the CONUS, and I don't really think anyone in here is. People love to throw the wish-casting word around.
Everyone learns from good debate...
Off to work. See y'all later.
Have a good 'un.
cant we take a little time to talk about the wave S of BERTHA or may be a talk about both of them from time to time??????????
so bye bye BN
and i will yet you no by season end on how we did
Hey, I'm not saying this is going to be a major, etc, but I don't think we should rule it out just yet either.
i am out for now
my for cast high for later this week will be 109
When Bertha gets to 55-60w there's warmer water and no dry air. In fact, the MJO pulse may well be in that area by then. If she maintains like she's been doing, Bertha could easily ramp up to a CAT 1 or 2 even before reaching the northern islands.
Hey, I'm not saying this is going to be a major, etc, but I don't think we should rule it out just yet either.
Exactly. No one is saying it's going to be a major hurricane we are just discussing observations.
FLWF
You don't need to book mark it....
Quick Links The GFS is already out on the NWS NCEP page under Forecast Models.
Make sure you select the Western North Atlantic link above the table.
Taz, NHC recognizes that S-of-Bertha convection as embedded in the ITCZ. I don't think there is much to talk about there. (look back about 100 posts for the quote)
I just had a few minutes to very quickly skim through some of the most recent posts in this blog. In doing so, I noticed alot of discussion about the prospects of future development off the African coast, as I did when Bertha first moved off the West African coastline a few days ago. Consequently, I wrote this most recent blog entry to help others better understand the "general rule of thumb" when it comes to forecasting "cyclogenesis".
Another thing to keep in mind when observing tropical waves emerging off the West African coastline, it must sustain its identity for a period of at least 24 hours to be characterized as a tropical disturbance (which is why you won't see most "blobs" discussed on here designated as such in the TWO).
The Basics of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Intensity and Movement
They'll come back south. The ULL is not gonna have much influence if it all and the trof will most likely not be deep enough to curve her away.
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