Tropical Weather Discussion - Saturday, June 4th, 2011

By: Randy Bynon , 4:46 PM GMT on June 04, 2011

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Good morning.

Not a lot has changed in the last couple of days. Invest 93L fizzled out but no surprise there really. Invest 94L was initated yesterday by NHC and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to fly it on Sunday June 5th. Here's the details....

In the Gulf of Mexico ......


For the most part, the Gulf of Mexico is clear and very dry on water vapor loops. The remnants of 93L can be seen in the western Gulf off the coast of northern Mexico. Circulation over the Gulf is easterly around a large strong high pressure center over the SE US.

In the Western Atlantic and Caribbean .....



In the west Atlantic, a deep trough of low pressure off the east coast extends down to the east of the Bahamas. An area of dry air can be seen on the north side of the subtropical jet exiting the southern Bahamas and heading NE out into the open Atlantic.

RGB Loop for 94L

In the Caribbean, a broad mid- and upper-level high pressure area dominates the circulation over most of the area and is helping to provide upper level diffluence for the convection associated with 94L in the central Caribbean. RGB and visible loops show a well defined low level low cyclonic circulation just west of the convection associated with 94L. If this system gets it's act together and the convection begins to develop near the center of circulation, I think we could see our first depression of the season. NHC gives the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

In the Central and Eastern Atlantic .........


The open Atlantic is still pretty quiet but it's still too early for the Cape Verde season anyway!

Have a great day!

Randy

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18. GothamSpartan
1:57 PM GMT on August 01, 2011
Quoting LRandyB:


Hi!

Well, first of all a surface circulation is just that, circulating winds at the surface as opposed to wind circulation aloft in the atmosphere. It's not uncommomn at all to pull up water vapor satellite loops and see upper level circulations over the open ocean.

A "closed" circulation is a bit redundant. Closed refers to the fact that the wind field makes a complete circle in its circulation. A tropical wave has a partial circulation but not a completely circular pattern. If it isn't forming a complete circle, it is most likely forming a partial "trough" circulation.

Does that answer your question?


Yes -- thanks very much!
Member Since: July 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
17. Thrawst
12:28 AM GMT on July 31, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hi Randy,

We're hoping u get tasked to some of the ATL systems this season. We'd love to hear your first-hand views of them and see any pics you are able to take...


Agreed.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1805
16. BahaHurican
11:08 PM GMT on July 30, 2011
Hi Randy,

We're hoping u get tasked to some of the ATL systems this season. We'd love to hear your first-hand views of them and see any pics you are able to take...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
15. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:23 PM GMT on July 28, 2011
Quoting GothamSpartan:
Here's a question with which I'm hoping someone here can help me: What does "closed surface circulation" mean? The term is used all the time but I can't find a definition anywhere!


Hi!

Well, first of all a surface circulation is just that, circulating winds at the surface as opposed to wind circulation aloft in the atmosphere. It's not uncommomn at all to pull up water vapor satellite loops and see upper level circulations over the open ocean.

A "closed" circulation is a bit redundant. Closed refers to the fact that the wind field makes a complete circle in its circulation. A tropical wave has a partial circulation but not a completely circular pattern. If it isn't forming a complete circle, it is most likely forming a partial "trough" circulation.

Does that answer your question?
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
14. GothamSpartan
6:27 PM GMT on July 27, 2011
Here's a question with which I'm hoping someone here can help me: What does "closed surface circulation" mean? The term is used all the time but I can't find a definition anywhere!
Member Since: July 27, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
12. Raysfan70
10:27 AM GMT on June 13, 2011
Congratulations Mr.and Mrs.Bynon!
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
11. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
11:10 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting OGal:


Humm..I wonder if this storm will get itself together. These are the kind of storms that suprise you sometimes. I just hope it is nothing but gentle rain. No bad wind.

Thanks for all you do Randy. Fly safe. My son start's Captain's school tomorrow. He will be flying Delta Connection and United Express based at La Guardia, NYCity for Republic. He is really thrilled. He has been an FO for the past five years. He will be flying Embrarer 170s.and 175s.


Thanks OGal! And that's wonderful about your son!! Now I know someone who can get me a buddy pass!!! ;-)
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
10. OGal
7:16 PM GMT on June 06, 2011


Humm..I wonder if this storm will get itself together. These are the kind of storms that suprise you sometimes. I just hope it is nothing but gentle rain. No bad wind.

Thanks for all you do Randy. Fly safe. My son start's Captain's school tomorrow. He will be flying Delta Connection and United Express based at La Guardia, NYCity for Republic. He is really thrilled. He has been an FO for the past five years. He will be flying Embrarer 170s.and 175s.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222
9. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:13 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting LRandyB:
The Plan of the Day isn't out yet but based on the 8am Tropical Weather Outlook, it looks like NHC decided they didn't need us to fly 94L today and have postponed the flight til tomorrow.


The POD was released and we are postponed another 24 hours.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
8. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
11:59 AM GMT on June 06, 2011
The Plan of the Day isn't out yet but based on the 8am Tropical Weather Outlook, it looks like NHC decided they didn't need us to fly 94L today and have postponed the flight til tomorrow.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
7. palmettobug53
6:41 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Hi, Randy...

Hope your upcoming flight is a safe one. It should be but take care, anyway.

Gams is hoping for some rain out of this system for S. FL but who knows which way it will head. If anywhere.

Marriage? I need to get out more.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24993
6. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
6:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting BahaHurican:
Randy, looks like u guys got cancelled 4 today.... do u think tomorrow's flight will still be on?


Yes, we did cancel today. Tomorrow looks more promising to me. 94L seems to be getting a little more convective now. And the latest Visible loops look like the convection is starting to wrap around the center. I think we're getting close to our first storm of the season.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
5. BahaHurican
4:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Randy, looks like u guys got cancelled 4 today.... do u think tomorrow's flight will still be on?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
4. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
12:45 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
94L is looking a bit more energetic this morning!!!!! But early morning is the diurnal max for tropical activity! So we'll have to watch it and see.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
3. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
5:58 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
NHC has tasked the Hurricane Hunters for flights Sunday and Monday into 94L.
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
2. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
5:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Thanks OGal!!! Yes, we could definitely use some rain!

Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
1. OGal
5:05 PM GMT on June 04, 2011


Hi Randy, bTW congrats on your upcoming marriage. Sounds like a true match with all your interests in common. Could you please just send 94 up to us here in Fl as gentle rain. We will even share some with Texas. Safe flying and thanks once again for being part of our blogs.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19222

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About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.

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