Tropical Weather Discussion for Friday, June 22, 2012

By: Randy Bynon , 1:26 AM GMT on June 23, 2012

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Things have been pretty quiet so far in the Atlantic after the early start. Hurricane Chris developed out over the open North Atlantic and stayed there without impacting land areas. Now we have Invest 96 in the Gulf to look at.

Let's take a look.....

In the Gulf of Mexico ......



Invest 96L is the news in the Gulf this weekend. 96L is actually a fairly large, broad area of low level circulation that is impacting most of the Gulf and the western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms are scattered from Central America and the Yucatan to western Cuba, the western Caribbean, and virtually all of Florida. The low level circulation covers nearly all the Gulf, and water vapor images show a fairly good upper level ridging pattern over the area. NHC reports that surface pressures are falling, and the system is becoming gradually better organized. Water temps in the Gulf are more than warm enough for development. Wind shear has been fairly high over the system for the last couple of days, but as the system moves northward into the central Gulf, shear should be somewhat less. While conditions aren't great for development, some development is possible.

The forecast for 96L is a bit problematic for the models at the moment. A lot depends on how well the system develops. Two basic scenarios emerge. One is the trough of low pressure in the Rockies picks the system up and drives it NE into N FL and into the Atlantic. The other is for the high pressure area over the southern plains to build eastward across the southeast US, preventing the trough from extending far enough south to pick up 96L and drive the system NW. I'm not placing any bets on the NE path for this system, but I also don't think it will have a lot of opportunity for development, so whatever makes it ashore should be little more than a rain event. For some parts of the Gulf Coast, that would be welcome. For some of us that have had a lot rain over the last week or so, not so much so. I'll keep on eye on the system as it progresses and update as needed here.


In the Caribbean .....



Most of the western Caribbean is dominated by the weather created by 96L and its broad circulation. The eastern Caribbean is enjoying quiet weather and hazy conditions as the result of a Saharan Air Layer that has moved into the region. I'll cover that more in the Atlantic discussion.

In the Atlantic ....



Most of the central and eastern Atlantic is under clear to partly cloudy skies with little in the way of weather. A fairly strong Saharan Air Layer is obvious on visible images as well as the Meteosat-9 SAL product covering a large part of the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Africa to the northeast Caribbean.



That broad circulation of 96L is impacting the weather over the western tropical Atlantic from the Bahamas to the GA coast. Another are of thunderstorms is seen associated with an upper level low 28N 68W with little movement to this low at the moment.

Have a great day!

Randy

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7. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:57 PM GMT on July 20, 2012
I know. I keep looking for something to blog on... nothing there! So I'm waiting patiently! :-)
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
6. palmettobug53
4:37 PM GMT on July 19, 2012
Yes, it's quiet.

Too quiet.

Makes my nerves jangle.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25243
5. ncstorm
2:53 PM GMT on July 19, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
4. palmettobug53
2:38 PM GMT on July 07, 2012
Sounds like you're still keeping really busy.

I knew you were a reservist.

I also figured that TWC would be picking one or, perhaps, two particular crews to follow for the season. And, if you weren't on one of them, well...

I'm excited to hear that you will still fly missions as a media expert.

I've been watching the show and so much of it is familiar, since you have filled us in with so much information (and pictures!) from past seasons/missions. It's still a learning experience, watching the show. All the details of the preparations everyone has to do, before the planes leave the ground. It is still fascinating.

So far, the Atlantic season, though off to an early start, seems to be fairly quiet. (Knock on wood!) Plenty of time, yet, though, for things to heat up. Cape Verde season is looming and those tend to be the ones that freak me out the most.

If you're ever in the mood to read something about storms, pick up Walter J. Fraser Jr.'s "Lowcountry Hurricanes: Three Centuries of Storms at Sea and Ashore." It's an interesting read.

Hubby had gotten me Fraser's book, "Charleston! Charleston! A History of a Southern City" for Christmas one year. Intertwined throughout the history of building, economics, politics and religion is information about the various storms that affected Charleston from the time of its founding.

I liked Fraser's attention to detail and all the tidbits of things I didn't know about the place I've lived for most of my life. I knew he'd apply the same attention to detail in a book devoted to storms.

Several summers ago, I went on a binge of "hurricane" reading, getting everything I could find at the local library. I had a copy of "Isaac's Storm" but I was able to get books about the various historic storms that hit FL, as well as the Long Island Express.

On the other hand, since this has been your "business", you may prefer other subjects for reading! LOL
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25243
3. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
7:36 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Quoting palmettobug53:
Hi, Randy!

Boy, did Debby do an about face. Looks like
we'll be seeing her later this week.

And she's the reason why I think all storms
should have female names. They can't ever
make up their minds! LOL

Things going along well for you? You did
retire last season, didn't you?

I was hoping to spot your face on TWC's
Hurricane Hunters but you must have been
really shy!


:-) Thanks Bug!!! Things are going wonderfully for me! I did retire on December 31st. I still work full timne of course, I'm just not in the AF anymore! I managed to stay away from the cameras. I think they picked the crew they wanted to follow for the season early on and as a reservist I wasn't in line of sight so I didn't get picked! :-) I haven't actually seen the series yet but I hear it's good.

Debby is indeed being rather fickle!! At the monet's she's just about non-existant. Not much left of her in the Gulf other than the low level circulation. Of course, that much low level convergence can make for a lot of rain and thunderstorms when the convergent bands move over the warm land!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012
2. palmettobug53
4:29 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Hi, Randy!

Boy, did Debby do an about face. Looks like
we'll be seeing her later this week.

And she's the reason why I think all storms
should have female names. They can't ever
make up their minds! LOL

Things going along well for you? You did
retire last season, didn't you?

I was hoping to spot your face on TWC's
Hurricane Hunters but you must have been
really shy!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25243
1. Randy Bynon , Dropsonde SysOp/AVAPS PM
4:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2012
Man... I'm glad I'm not a forecaster for NHC! Gotta feel for those guys!!
Member Since: July 17, 2001 Posts: 190 Comments: 2012

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About LRandyB

I was an AF aviation weather forecaster for 12 years, then 15 years as a dropsonde systems operator with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters.