Tropical Weather Discussion - August 27, 2012
Good afternoon folks!
Tropical Storm Isaac is churning across the Gulf this afternoon headed for an eventual landfall somewhere on the LA coast. Despite what appeared to be conditions favorable for intensification, Isaac has stubbornly remained a tropical storm. We won't complain. I think the single biggest reason Isaac hasn't been able to reach hurricane status has been its shear size. A storm that covers as much ocean as Isaac takes time to consolidate all that energy to the center of the storm. And Isaac is trying to do that. The central pressure has steadily dropped but it's doing so at a slow pace. The winds haven't kept pace with the pressure, remaining steadily around 40-50mph. I'll be surprised to see Isaac not at least make a minimal hurricane it will struggle to make much more than that.
The track forecast has proven to be a challenge, as anyone following this storm can attest. It hasn't surprised me to see this storm track further west than was at first expected. The real question now is how far west. The models are usually pretty accurate within the 48-72 hour point. The single most significant factor at the moment for the track forecast is the development of the high pressure ridge over the SE US. The 11am storm discussion from the hurricane center mentions the fact that this high appears to be building more than forecast. The circulation around the high could push the track further west than the current forecast is indicating.
At the moment, I think the current model solution looks reasonable but I think we can expect the track forecast to be nudged a bit further west over the course of the next two days before landfall.
Elsewhere, we should keep our eyes on the eastern Atlantic. A new wave off the African coast has caught NHCs eye and they give it a low chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The GFS develops this wave fairly significantly in the central and western Atlantic by the end of the week. We'll keep an eye on that system.
Randy
Reader Comments
Page: 1 — Blog Index
5:14 PM GMT on August 28, 2012
What's amazing me is that I'm seeing lights in NOLA on TWC and there's even traffic and people walking around the Bourbon St cam on Earthlinks. It doesn't even look like a storm is going on, other than the fact that it's wet.
4:19 PM GMT on August 29, 2012
Off and on, yes, been out on the porch. Not real bad here but the weather is indeed nasty. Surge is about 6-8 feet at my house!
How much surge or high water levels have you gotten at your house?
We got hit by some of Isaac's outlying tropical moisture yesterday. Flooded the heck out of us.
I thought I'd never get home.
Had over 6 inches in my rain gauge.
Here's an article w/photos from our paper this a.m.:
After Rain Causes Gridlock, More Bad Weather Expected.
A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE CREWS OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO FLEW A TOTAL OF 34 HAZARDOUS MISSIONS INTO
ISAAC...WHICH RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TOTAL OF 95 CENTER FIXES.
FORECASTER STEWART
...we all add our thanks also Randy.
Boy, you were sure right about that. I went to bed last night after Isaac started making landfall. Got up this a.m. to find that he'd headed back and had been grinding west along the coast.
9:14 PM GMT on August 30, 2012
I'll bet the crews from the base are about worn slap out. Hope their families all made it through Isaac without any more problems than you had.
12:55 PM GMT on September 04, 2012
I don't think anyone had any serious damage! It wasn't too bad a storm here. But the crews were wore out.
12:44 PM GMT on September 14, 2012
If the good Lord ain't willing, you can bet the creek will rise!! :-) But yes, TD 14/Nadine looks like it will indeed be a fish storm!!
Viewing: 1 - 13
Page: 1 — Blog Index