Cancun and News - Again:

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 10:57 PM GMT on December 09, 2010

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Cancun and News - Again:

Cancun, Conference of the Parties - 16: The Conference of the Parties (COP) are the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We went into the Cancun meeting with far lower expectations than the 2009 meeting in Copenhagen . Much of the talk preceding the meeting was focused on small good things (A Small Good Thing, this is just a good short story.) This is, perhaps, an implicit statement that a comprehensive global agreement on climate change and reduction of emissions are just beyond our ability of collective action. Some would argue that this has been evident for some time, and it is finally emerging that we need to piece together, more effectively, bottoms-up solutions.

Like last year, there is a group of University Michigan and Alma College students at the conference. They are going and coming, and they are writing their own blogs, which appear on ClimateBlue. There are a few students and members of the Michigan Delegation who were also at last year’s meeting, providing a perspective of the two meetings. (We thank Wunderground.com for helping to sponsor the students.)



Figure 1. Cancun Climate Conference. (Photo from Kevin Reed)


In my entries from the 2009 COP meeting, I recall talking about the quiet work of the people sitting at coffee-shop tables talking about their community-based approaches to adaptation (Rood). That is, in the big storm of international politics, people dismiss their political leader’s relevance to the real world and take on the opportunities to anticipate and to prepare based on information provided by climate simulations. In short, adaptation to the consequences of climate change rises to the forefront.

The January 13, 2011 issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society explores the world of four degrees warming. This issue implicitly and explicitly recognizes that we are not likely to limit warming to a global average of two degrees, and that it is critical to describe this new warmer world and to plan for this new world. Here are links to the preface and the editorial accompanying this issue. At the start of the Cancun meeting there was a flurry of press coverage of reports coming from the International Livestock Research Institute. These reports fed off of looking at a world that is closer to a four degree warming, as opposed to the increasingly unrealistic world where “dangerous” climate change has been avoided. What struck me about the people looking at these adaptation problems was the thorough, serious approach, and their ability to cut a rational path through all of the political, economic, and scientific uncertainty to develop convincing strategies for problems such as – can we still grow corn in Africa? Here are a set of reports and press coverage over the past few weeks and years:

Climate variability and climate change: Impacts on Kenyan agriculture

A wonderful collection of stories on agriculture and climate change in Africa

Climate change as opportunity in Africa

Voice of America Coverage of African Climate Adaptation

Africa’s Growing Water Crisis

I respond to efforts such as the one outlined above on many levels. It is gratifying to see the use of the climate projection information in systematic and rational ways. Further, to me, this response and knowledge is being developed in Africa, and these efforts serve as examples of the increasingly deep and distributed intellectual base vested in addressing climate change. These efforts proceed while the international political clamor imagines moving towards a problem more tractable than reducing emissions – namely, who will pay, setting up international funds and ways to hand off technology (as a poor writer, I note a tone of the incredulous).


It also makes me wonder about us, here, in the United States. At last year’s meeting, in the exhibits it was not the U.S. exhibitors who had the leading technology. As I look around the world the self-organization that is taking place is not in the U.S. Here, on the national scale we argue about prosecuting climate scientists, and shoot, literally, cap and trade in political ads. I see European firms building U.S. wind technology. I sit in meetings where U.S. scientists argue about the same data provision issues they argued about in 1995, probably 1985, while Canada already has a facility to provide climate data for applications. In short, the political argument and the cultural inertia places the U.S. further and further behind in both science and technology – an issue of basic economic and societal success. (Does this only seem relevant to me? Molybdenum and test scores)

Going back to the students and the University of Michigan Delegation in Cancun – it is these students and their peers who are starting to address these problems. It is this generation who will live with the warming planet, and who will take advantage – or not – of the opportunity that is provided by climate projections. I point out some of their entries from Cancun: Climate Action Network Canada Press Conference, Moving Beyond Coors Light Solutions, Top Three Warmest Year.



Figure 2. Cancun Climate Conference – UoM Students, Sarah Katherine Pethan (SNRE) and Marisol Ramos (Ford School), point at a white square that says “United States.” (Photo from Kevin Reed)

Book of the Year: A Vast Machine I have mentioned Paul Edwards’ book A Vast Machine many times. The Economist has selected it as a Book of the Year. A quote. “Not enough intelligent, scholarly and critically minded history of contemporary science gets published, but this work, by a professor at the University of Michigan, is a nice exception on an important area.”

A Couple of Updates: Johannes Feddema sent me a note on focusing of targeted studies of land use changes in response to some of my recent blogs. (White Roofs in the Cities).

And my blog got a great write up in the Cody Enterprise.

Pakistani Flood Relief Links

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

U.S. State Department Recommended Charities

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Portlight Disaster Relief at Wunderground.com

An impressive list of organizations

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75. atmoaggie
6:47 PM GMT on December 14, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:
The Antarctic ozone hole seems to be lasting longer in recent years, even though the peak extent has been lower:



In fact, it appears that 2010 will have an average December extent that is twice the previous record, and 2008 previously had the record for most of the days in the first half (will they soon extend this graph into the second half of December?) of December (at least since 2000, which included the largest ozone hole on record in 2006).
Has everything to do with the longevity of the PSCs...

Colder stratosphere = longer hole event
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
72. cyclonebuster
4:11 PM GMT on December 14, 2010
Blooming Jellyfish in Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean: Over-Fishing, Warming Waters to Blame

ScienceDaily (Dec. 14, 2010) — A study examining over 50 years of jellyfish data by an international team, with the participation of the Balearic Oceanography Centre of the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) has confirmed an increase in the size and intensity of proliferations of the jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca. There are several complex reasons for this -- over-fishing and the current increase in sea water temperatures."Since 2002, these organisms have become increasingly frequently found in the north east Atlantic in winter, since winters have been warmer, and they have tended to appear earlier and spend more time in their annual cycle there," María Luz Fernández de Puelles, the only Spanish co-author of the study, and a researcher at the IEO's Balearic Oceanography Centre, said.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
71. cyclonebuster
4:10 PM GMT on December 14, 2010
Continued Death of Forests Predicted in Southwestern US Due to Climate Change

ScienceDaily (Dec. 13, 2010) — If current climate projections hold true, the forests of the Southwestern United States face a bleak future, with more severe -- and more frequent -- forest fires, higher tree death rates, more insect infestation, and weaker trees. The findings by university and government scientists are published in this week's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
68. cyclonebuster
12:11 AM GMT on December 14, 2010
10 December 2010
Media Advisory: NSIDC Antarctic Scientist at Press Briefing

NSIDC Lead Scientist and Antarctic expert Ted Scambos will join a panel of scientists on December 15 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Standard Time for a press briefing on changes on the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Please see below for call-in information for reporters not attending the Fall American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference. Please visit the AGU Web site for more information: http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm10/newsmedia/index.php.
Press briefing details

Unstable Antarctica: What's Driving Ice Loss?

Time: Wednesday, Dec. 15, 9 a.m. PST
Related Sessions: C22B, C13D, C11A, C44A

New results based on data from airborne and satellite missions show a clear picture of mechanisms driving ice loss in West Antarctica. Scientists have previously shown that West Antarctica is losing ice, but how that ice is lost remained unclear. Now, using data from a range of NASA's Earth observing satellites and from the ongoing Operation IceBridge airborne mission, scientists have pinpointed ice loss culprits above and below the ice. Continued monitoring of Antarctica's rapidly changing areas is expected to improve predictions of sea level rise.

Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
67. cyclonebuster
9:40 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
JF I believe in 'cycle theory'  It's just that it's going to be a vicious cycle.  What with the feedbacks from reduced snow and ice cover and methane releases from the tundra.


We need an accumulator to snub out the cycles.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
62. cyclonebuster
9:20 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Oh! I forgot and the oceans need some cooling.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
61. cyclonebuster
9:18 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
See why wee need to cool the great lakes off.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
56. cyclonebuster
8:37 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Quoting MichaelSTL:


And many months this year had a much higher ratio, closer to 5:1. And even then, the U.S. is only 2% of the globe:





So the U.S. wasn't that warm last month. Who cares. Just as they are predicting an ice age because it is cold in Europe (LOL).


LOL! Look how tiny that blue is in that image and they think we are in an ice age. LOL! LOL^1000
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
54. cyclonebuster
8:04 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Still thinking regional hey Martini! Perhaps, you will learn someday.

Quoting martinitony:


So, regarding the Mtrodome, which do you think weighs more, a pound of fluffy snow or a pound of dense snow? Maybe you should think that through especially in connection with the series of astoundingly moronic posts just posted.
Funny how last summer, with each new high temperature record the same morons who say no one should make a big deal out of this winters early and strong start posted each and every one of those new highs.what a pathetic bunch.


Record High Temperatures Far Outpace Record Lows Across US

ScienceDaily (Nov. 13, 2009) — Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb."Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States," says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting."

The study, by authors at NCAR, Climate Central, The Weather Channel, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor, the Department of Energy, and Climate Central.

If temperatures were not warming, the number of record daily highs and lows being set each year would be approximately even. Instead, for the period from January 1, 2000, to September 30, 2009, the continental United States set 291,237 record highs and 142,420 record lows, as the country experienced unusually mild winter weather and intense summer heat waves.



Link
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
53. martinitony
6:55 PM GMT on December 13, 2010
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I noticed that Minneapolis got over an inch of liquid equivalent.  That must be quite rare, given its location near the center of the continent and during meteorological winter.  Cold snows can have ratios of 20-30 per inch of water, so really 'heavy' snow could be light and fluffy up there, and probably usually is.

I wonder what the total weight of that snow on the metrodome roof was.


So, regarding the Mtrodome, which do you think weighs more, a pound of fluffy snow or a pound of dense snow? Maybe you should think that through especially in connection with the series of astoundingly moronic posts just posted.
Funny how last summer, with each new high temperature record the same morons who say no one should make a big deal out of this winters early and strong start posted each and every one of those new highs.what a pathetic bunch.
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 970
52. cyclonebuster
4:56 AM GMT on December 13, 2010
We need to cool the great lakes off!
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
51. cyclonebuster
4:54 AM GMT on December 13, 2010
Dog gone Great Lakes are to warm.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting MichaelSTL:
This proves that global warming is a hoax (LOL):

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
0453 PM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ST. LOUIS MO...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 4.3 INCHES WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS MO TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.5 SET IN 1903.


Don't they know that record snowfalls can occur with global warming?
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting JFLORIDA:
So is C02 for that matter.


Correct but the naysayers will say otherwise because it is good for the trees.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ocean acidification and pollution ae not really being addressed it seems by these conferences.



Ocean acidification is pollution.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting McBill:
Photobucket



We need to do everything we can to put the kitchen fire out including throwing the kitchen sink at it which may have some water left in it to put the fire out. To late the fire is to big.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting McBill:

Interesting. One wonders if, when you happen to call your old profs, you discuss their adherence to the party line when it comes to climate change. Not to mention their apparent lack of intellectual curiosity.

Or maybe you're just the classic passive-aggresive type - trashing the reputations of your old profs on forums like this while smiling to their faces; figuratively speaking, that is.
I didn't/don't bash. Anyone. Ever. That's not me.

My own research led me to we don't know what we pretend to. Yes, I can and have brought that up with profs and we had good discussions about it. Not convincing discussions, just good ones. We, as professionals in the field, have the ability to have coherent discussions, acceptance of possible caveats, and still respect each other.
Quoting McBill:
BTW - you didn't mention whether you ended up getting a degree from Texas A&M or not. Just curious if you were able to stick it out.




Of course.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Even with all of that record warmth across northern latitudes, November snowcover was slightly above average:





Of course, the denialists will claim that proves that surface warming is inflated (but tell that to Spencer, who rated November, while not at record highs, among the top warmest Novembers)!

On the other hand, look at this, during the period with the fastest snowcover decline (the decline rate during the summer, like August, is slowing down and will soon level off since snowcover is now nearly zero at the minimum, similar to this):







"November snowcover was slightly above average:"

Probably a sign of more water vapor in the atmosphere due the increased global warming!

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221
Quoting martinitony:
There are many accusations here about the "deniers", those who question the "religion" preached here and by the IPCC. Yet, when posts show what we all know, that last year was the worst winter for the last few decades, that sea surface temperatures are falling, and that now land surface temperatures are likewise falling, the same persons post here in total denial of reality.

The FACT that the Earth appears to be cooling right now doesn't prove anything, but it must be taken into consideration as you put what you believe are proofs forward.

PS-The chart was from an article and was sourced as follows:

Average winter snowfall anomalies for the top 12 snowiest winters - source Rutgers/NOAA. Enlarged here.



Martini Up=Down now?

Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20221

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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.