Skyepony's WunderBlog

World Weather News & the Local

By: Skyepony, 4:10 AM GMT on June 28, 2007

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Tornado kills 14, injures 146 in eastern China

Up to Monday, 18 provinces and major cities across China had been hit by floods and accompanying disasters, with a total of 233 people killed and 118,500 houses destroyed, the State Flood Control and Drought

Rivers crest in Plains, but floods not over

Environment Scare in India

Gujarat: Flood toll mounts to 101, compensation doubled

Hailstorm whites-out south London

Solar energy in South Florida might gain greater acceptance

Scientists solve puzzle of Chile's missing lake

Landslide in Mexico Buries Passenger Bus


Yesterdays News

South Asia Flooding


Sudan flooding

Texas Flooding

Oklahoma Flooding

Southern California heat wave

Snap Inspection of Hurricane Center


Gippsland floods 'could last for a week'


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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







thurs~ More high chances of heavy rain, lightnin, severe weather. Low looking healthy for being over land so long. Easily spotted on radar for most of wed, expect more of the same.

Fri-Low may move out or fall apart

weekend~ scattered showers



.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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Atlantic
96L~25kts 1013mb



WPAC

90W~15kt 1010mb...
92W~03 TORAJI~ 35kts 996mb~ Hit Hainan Island, China. Headed for more land.


93W~gone
94W~too new for info

Indian Ocean

04B~ gone.
97B~15kts 1010mb center looks overland well organized..still there, dumping up to an inch an hour in some spots.

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Updated July 3rd~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.


Regions 1&2 dropped .8 to -1.9, region 3 stayed at -.5, 3.4 fell from .1 to 0, and region 4 fell from .4 to .2

With region 3,4 at 0 we are in offical true nuetral conditions.

ESPI dropped from -1.23 to -1.42 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. My forecast for the next few weeks... The fall of ENSO is on. Make it to La Nina? we will see.

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Flood Tornado Weather News

Updated: 7:24 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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Cyclone Yemyin & Weather News

By: Skyepony, 2:15 PM GMT on June 23, 2007

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Deadly Floods Swamp English Cities

Texas Summer Storm Brings Flooding Rain, Tornado

Canada Heat wave

CA fire update

Southeast Europe heat wave leaves 38 dead, brings brush fires, power cuts

Cyclone on Pakistan's Coast Kills 10

yeaterday's news



CA~ Wildfire claims 220 homes

UK~ Hundreds flee homes in dam burst fear

Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Wed & Thursday could see widespread rain with an incoming tropical wave, east coast looking at best chance. Cooler cause of clouds.

Friday rain chances return to scattered as the 1st wave exits.

Sat & Sunday unsure here~ either seabreezes stacking on the east coast as a weak front comes through or dry as a tropical system forms out of the tropical wave currently near Puerto Rico, just east of FL, then recurves taking the moisture with it. See CMC.


Tropically around the Western Hemisphere~ invest 93E in the EPAC & the wave who's moisture is currently north of PR.
.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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EPAC

93E~ 20kts 1008mb looking less healthy, the models aren't as aggressive with this one.


Indian Ocean

96B~ 25kts 1004mb strengthened a little overnight

03B Cyclone Yemyin~ 25kts 1005mb~ dying overland



more in the comments..

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Updated June 25th~ weekly is out. Their summary changed from ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the next 3 months to dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.


Regions 1&2 dropped .1 to -1.1, regions 3 droppped from -.4 to -.5, while 3,4 fell .1 to .1 & region 4 is down .5 to .4

Officially looking at only region 3,4~ We are now barely on the warm side of neutral~ good news for cane season if this trend holds, don't think it will.

Looking at it through the depths of the water the cool pool has lost some punch too. Interesting to note is the possible new pools of cooler water forming.

ESPI dropped from -0.62 to -1.23 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I'm sticking with my forecast that was a warm mini peak in a continued trend downward~ More cooling should continue. Make it to La Nina? we will see.

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Weather News Cyclone

Updated: 7:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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Another Low off FL

By: Skyepony, 1:12 AM GMT on June 16, 2007

Happy Summer Solstice!!

A low (~1012mb) has rolled off the FL/GA border into the Atlantic. Here's the radar outta Jaxsonville. GFS/NAM wants to relocate this low to north FL & move it down the pennisula today into Friday. CMC which has picked up on this the longest sweeps it out into the Atlantic...where~ it has already slipped into. I see the center staying in the Atlantic, maybe pushing south & East a little before turning east & NE. Buoy & ship watchers can go here for reports from the area.


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Weather News~

Search for missing people after flash floods in Catskills

Massive Flooding Sweeps Through North Texas

Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions Required To Avoid Dangerous Increases In Heat Stress

Ball Aerospace's QuikSCAT Celebrates Eighth On-Orbit Anniversary

Sen. Nelson Defends NHC Director After Reprimand

Texas Guard Stands Ready to Assist Flood Relief Efforts

McGuinty promises $650 million fund to help create new 'green' cars, parts (git 'er done Canada:)

Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust

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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive








Thurs ~rain chances look good, probibly best for the east coast, Space Coast & southward. Chance of severe weather.

Tropically looking pretty quiet. Areas of intrest would be the cut off low that is forming. EPAC blob reprise. SW Carribbean, long term models are sending this towrd LA.
.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~


WPAC
96W~ 15kts 1010mb
98W~ gone

Indian Ocean
95B~ (reprised)~ 20kts 1007mb
94A~ gone
96B~ gone

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Updated June 18th~ CPC weekly is out. Their summary changed to ENSO neutral conditions are likely to continue during the next 3 months.


Regions 1&2 rose nearly .5 to -1.1, regions 3 rose from -.8 to -.4, while 3,4 rose to .2 & region 4 is up .1 to .5

We are now on the warm side of neutral~ good news for cane season if this trend holds.



ESPI dropped from -0.00 to -.62 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I'm sticking with my forecast that we are seeing a warm mini peak in a continued trend downward~ so see the moderation trend continue for the next week or 2 with more cooling after. Make it to La Nina? we will see.

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ECFL Weather Tropics

Updated: 7:53 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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Atlas Launch Delay & Weather News

By: Skyepony, 9:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2007


Todays Launch of the Atlas carrying some classified military stuff was delayed til

Date: June 15, 2007 (Friday)

Launch Period: 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M. EDT

For easy online viewing go here.

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Weather News~

british flooding

Bangladesh flooding


Exceptional drought spreading from Alabama into Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia


Met Office to unveil new Atlantic tropical storm forecast

Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust

Australia's drought may end

71 die in torrential rains in China

Gonu inflicts $1bn damage

Video~ unclaimed Katrina victims in warehouse await memorail

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NOAA has done a nice article on Rip currents figured I'd feature some of it this week since we tend to loose some tourist & a few locals to this phenominon every year.

Rip currents are narrow channels of fast-moving water that pull swimmers away from the shore. Panicked swimmers fail trying to counter the current by swimming straight back to shore � putting themselves at risk of drowning because of fatigue. Rip currents account for more than 80 percent of rescues performed by lifeguards, totaling tens of thousands of people in the United States every year. An estimated 100 people are killed by rip currents annually.

To escape a rip current swim on the surface parrallel to shore till your out of it.



The rip current hazard for the day for ECFL is posted with the hazard graphics of this blog & updates in real time. They occure all up & down the east coast so check the area forecast where your swimming.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Fri~ cooler~ 80s & less rain, around 30% chance. Best chance inland & south~scattered showers do carry a chance of severe storms.

Weekend~ May have a low to TD develop from 94L around the Yucatan & move over the south 1/2 of the state with good rain. Most likely it never is gonna make it to a deep single low but more like several weeker lows. It's currently being sheared pretty hard north but conditions should change as the low level front over the keys lifts to the north.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~

Atlantic
94L~ 20kts 1006mb



EPAC
TD3E~ gone

WPAC
95W~gone


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Updated June 11th~ The monthly is out. Their take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in the next 3 months. (a sudden dive is looking less likely)

Regions 1&2 stayed the same this week, regions 3 fell to -.8, while 3,4 & region 4 stayed the same.

We are still barely on the cool side of neutral

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.

ESPI rose from -0.04 to -.00 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the next week or 2 with more cooling after.

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Launch Rip Currents Weather News

Updated: 7:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2011

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About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

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