Tropics

By: Skyepony , 3:58 PM GMT on February 01, 2012

Share this Blog
10
+

Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere

92S
90S



A site to check out storms.
A place to check for invests
MIT storm forecast & intensity models
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Garden~

When to plant what & how in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama.



February brings North FL the 1st chance to plant a taste of summer. For SFL it's the last month to plant near most the remaining winter plants. Statewide, lazy gardeners may want to hold off on planting summer veggies suitable to their zones til more the end of the month. Some cold weather is expected, that would kill little corn unless it was well mulched in something like leaves raked from the lawn or in something that could be brought in. * means last month to plant.

North FL Plant cucumbers, eggplant, peppers, tomatoes- beets, Broccoli*, cabbage, Carrots, cauliflower*, celery, kale*, Kohlrabi, leek, lettuce, Mustard, bunching onions, parsley, snow peas, potatoes, radish & turnips.

Central FL Get out the summer seeds!!!..Plant~ All beans, cantaloupes, corn, cucumber, eggplant, peppers, sweet potatoes, pumpkin, all squash, tomatoes, watermelon, beets*, carrots, celery*, collards, leek, mustard, parsley, snow peas, potatoes*, radish & turnips*.

South FL Plant ALL beans, corn, cucumbers, eggplant, southern Peas, peppers, sweet potatoes, pumpkin, All squash, tomatoes, watermelon, beets*, carrots*, collards*, Kohlrabi*, bunching onions, Sweet peas*, radish, turnips*.


February 2012
27th-28th Fine For Planting Beans, Peppers, Cucumbers, Melons And Other Aboveground Crops, Where Climate Is Suitable.
29th Any Seed Planted Now Will Tend To Rot.
```````````````````````````````````
Local Weather~
Monday~ Chance of rain
Tuesday-friday~ warm, mostly dry.
Sat~May see a frontal passage.






NHC Tropical Discussion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger

ECFL TDWR High Definition Radar

Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current....Flood.......Lightning.....Severe Hail...Severe Winds....Tornados........cold............Fire




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook



Watching for rain & minimum temps..
click maps to go interactive









click maps to make bigger & animate
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Click to make maps bigger.

850mb Relitive Vorticity..................300-850mb Steering



HAZARDS


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~

Visitor Map........
Create your own visitor map ....Skywarn Activation ..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Atlas V (Skyepony)
Atlas 5 rocket launching the Navy's MUOS 1 mobile communications satellite.
Atlas V

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

134. Skyepony
5:16 AM GMT on March 01, 2012
Febuary is in the books. Ended with tornadoes & the loss of Davy Jones.. Guess I'll never grow up & marry him now.. The race is on to the next blog.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
133. Skyepony
4:59 AM GMT on March 01, 2012
Finn~ I'm looking to see if we still have any shrimping nets tomorrow.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
132. Skyepony
4:58 AM GMT on March 01, 2012
Hope everyone had a great leap day. Good day here.

Louis~ This blog is getting stale fast..

Hades~ Thanks for the updates!

Redagain~ So good to see you:)

psu~ Lucky..I had 0.43". There was smoke on the air today.

Shore~Thanks a bunch for sharing that. That point about the confusion between natural & organic confusion is true. I've been consistently surprised about how people aren't getting that natural is still GMO.

Rob~ Thanks for the rain!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
131. LakeWorthFinn
4:55 AM GMT on March 01, 2012
Did someone say SHRIMP??? Come down here!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7198
130. Louisclocks
1:12 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
FIRST !!!!!

ooops I forgot we get an extra day this year. ( :
Member Since: February 22, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
129. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:16 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 12-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12 (999 hPa) located at 12.5S 69.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.3S 69.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.5S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.6S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.0S 68.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
================

Since 1800 PM UTC, deep convective activity has consolidated near the center and organized on a curved band pattern. SSMI F15 2310 PM UTC confirms this better feature. Low level inflow improves on the both sides and easterly vertical wind shear has temporarily weakened but is forecast to enforce back today late and tomorrow Thursday. Numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast a globally southwards motion. Over this expected track, environmental conditions should become favorable on Friday under the upper level ridge but a new northerly vertical wind shear constraint should established on and after Saturday. Potential for intensification is therefore limited at short or medium range.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
128. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:15 AM GMT on February 29, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 29 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (994 hPa) located at 16.3S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 45 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.7S 42.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 17.3S 42.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 20.3S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 38.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation center remains very difficult to precisely localize. Deep convective activity enforces and organizes in a curved band pattern in the west of the estimated center. Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally southwest on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. Vertical wind shear keeps on weakening aloft as previously forecast allowing the system to intensify. On Wednesday and Thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significant further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favorable environment should allow the system to reach tropical cyclone stage on Friday.

Available numerical weather prediction forecast tracks are in good agreement to a landfall on the Mozambique coastline. The potential threatened areas remains difficult at this range to be precisely targeted but runs after runs concentrates in a region between Beira and Maputo.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:45 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
16:00 PM RET February 28 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Area Of Disturbed Weather, Former Irina (997 hPa) located at 16.3S 44.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 1.5/1.5/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.3S 43.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.4S 43.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.9S 42.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.3S 40.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Low level circulation has come back over seas yesterday, then has tracked along the northwestern coast of madagascar. Low level circulation center remains very difficult to localize. Current position is estimated thanks to 0900z and 1200 PM UTC Malagasy observations (Belasampy and Majunga) and Juan de Nova.The clockwise circulation is expected to go far from the coast in the next hours, coming back over a complete overseas environment.

Most of available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. System is expected to track globally west on the northern edge of subtropical ridge existing in the south for the next 24 hours, then southwestwards. The moderate easterly wind shear, is always limiting system intensification, but it is forecast to weaken.

Easterly wind shear should limit potential for regeneration but this shear is expected to weaken. On wednesday and thursday, the very good equatorward upper level outflow is expected to combine to a strong poleward one, environmental conditions should progressively improve and become favorable for significative further re-intensification. An oversea track in the middle of the channel within this favourable environment should allow ex-Irina to reach tropical cyclone stage on wednesday. Beyond an easterly upper level constraint should weaken it on Saturday.

Numerical weather prediction available forecast tracks invite the inhabitants of the Mozambique coastline to the greatest caution. It's currently not possible to precisely target the potential threatened areas. The all long Mozambique coastline from 18.0s to 27.0s should be influences directly or indirectly by this system.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warning. It remains however closely monitored in relationship with its potential for intensification.

For further information about this system when no tropical cyclone forecast advisory (WTIO30) is issued, refer to bulletin AWIO20 for cyclonic activity and significant tropical weather in the southwest Indian ocean issued by the RSMC daily at 1200 PM UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
126. redagainPatti
9:55 AM GMT on February 28, 2012
Good Morning lady!
Hope your day goes well!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 122 Comments: 1500
125. psualum95
5:40 AM GMT on February 28, 2012
Almost an inch here today. Came down in buckets hitting almost 4 inches per hour on the rate for a while. Hope we can keep this up into the spring to put the fires out.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6807
124. shoreacres
3:55 AM GMT on February 28, 2012
Skye ~ You may know all of this, but it's certainly worthy of note and passing around.

The Organic Elite Surrenders to Monsanto
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
123. RobDaHood
1:14 AM GMT on February 28, 2012
Been raining here for over 2 hours now with more to come. Tampa radar being upgraded now, so watching Melbourne radar.

Watered the garden today which is the reason.

Hope you get a little of this.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30689
122. Skyepony
1:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2012
Plume of dust coming off Africa.

I like how they redid that Sahara layer product. Upper & mid level WV is a sweet feature..


Shrimp was mouth watering. First I'd had in a few years. I won't eat seafood unless it's local. Ate some clams, mullet & talapa in the last few months.

Rob~ I haven't had either of those in forever..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
121. whitewabit (Mod)
7:30 PM GMT on February 27, 2012
fresh caught shrimp sounds really good !!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 358 Comments: 30198
120. RobDaHood
6:23 PM GMT on February 27, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
91S didn't make it..

Locally hope everyone sees some rain. Fairly dry week ahead.

Shrimp are running in the Indian River..oh my so tasty...Had some yesterday.

Aw Man! I'm jealous. Did manage to find some nice fresh tuna steaks and fresh Atlantic salmon fillets yesterday though.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30689
119. Skyepony
4:58 PM GMT on February 27, 2012
Couple of horse related things...

Apassionata is coming from Europe. Trailer is awesome. Tour dates not out yet, starts in KY. Looks like an awesome show.


Dr Tucker, IMO the best horse dentist to roam the east coast, his weekly tale was storm related.."The Entire Roof Was Gone". As always a good read.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
118. Skyepony
2:38 PM GMT on February 27, 2012
91S didn't make it..

Locally hope everyone sees some rain. Fairly dry week ahead.

Shrimp are running in the Indian River..oh my so tasty...Had some yesterday.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
117. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:55 PM GMT on February 26, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 26 2012
==========================

Moderate Tropical Storm Irina
=======================

See tropical cyclone advisories issued at 12:00 PM UTC for details

Between 60E and 75E and along 10S
=======================

Thunderstorm activity is strong within the Inter-tropical convergence zone and conditions appear conducive for cyclogenesis within the next few days over the area (lower shear, good low level monsoon inflow and good low level convergence). No defined surface closed circulation is evident at this time but it appears likely that a significant system should develop over the area during the next few days.

Over the extreme east of our area of responsibility, convection remains poorly organized. There is no evidence of a closed circulation and conditions appear less favorable for development mainly due to marginal low level inflow.

For the next 24 to 36 hours, the potential for development of another tropical depression is fair to good (suspect area between 60E and 75E).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
116. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on February 26, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 26 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 50.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
============
In the southwestern quadrant up to 70 NM from the center and in the northwestern quadrant up to 130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.2S 48.2E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 15.2S 46.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.3S 42.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.4S 41.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Synopsis report from Antalaha (between 0500 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC and then at 1200 PM UTC), Sambava (at 0700 AM UTC then no obs) and Digo-Suarez (between 0700 AM UTC and 0900 AM UTC then no obs) shown mean 10 min winds in the gale force range (35-45 kt). Consequently, the Madagascar Weather Services named the system Irina. Those strong winds seems to be associated with the stong burst of convection that occured this morning just west of the estimated low level circulation center. This convective features is now collapsing.

Despite this strong winds observed, the cloud pattern of Irina is still miles away from a moderate tropical storm signature

The system is moving rapidly westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge that have built back to the south. It undergoes a moderate easterly constraint so the center is estimated to be just to the east of the main convective mass. This pattern should continue within the next two days. On this track, the system should make landfall within the next hours over the northern tip of Madagascar between Diego-Suarez and Sambava (likely near Iharana). Associated heavy rainfalls should affect large areas of northern Madagascar during the next two days. Rainfall rate in 24hour period of 100-150 mm is likely.

Wednesday, environmental conditions should improve (lower shear, high sea surface temperature over the Mozambique channel) and significant intensification is expected.

By that time, the system should be influenced by two contradictory steering flow; one associated with an equatorial ridge located to its north and induced an easterly motion and another one associated with the subtropical ridge located to the south and induced a westwards motion. Consequently, the track should slow down significantly during the middle of next week. Beyond, the subtropical ridge could weaken and allow a more polewards track.

Inhabitants of the northeastern coasts of Madagascar and the northern channel area (including the Comoros archipelago, the northwestern coasts of Madagascar and the Mozambique coasts) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC Irina will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
115. Skyepony
4:30 AM GMT on February 26, 2012
Awesome TRMM pass of 92S. It's playing with a lot of rain. Click pic for animated graphic.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:52 AM GMT on February 26, 2012
Madagascar Meteorological Warning For 92S

Warning Nr NR02/11 26/02/2012 0100 UTC --
System / PERTURBATION TROPICALE --
Name UNNAMED
Position NEAR 13° 7 S - 51° 7 E 26/02/2012 0000 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure 998 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre 25 KT --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) CI 2.0 --
Movement over the past 06 hours W/WNW 14 KT (26 KM/H) --

Other information THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
113. Skyepony
2:17 AM GMT on February 26, 2012
Hey all.. I'm gonna live! Been down with the circulating sniffles.

92S is the biggest concern..about to hit Madagascar..


Bogon~ That's 91S. Deep convection firing today.

Rob & Gator~ Thanks for the encouragement. I've never offered for sale anything other than murals. These were well received elsewhere online as well, so I made prints of these available for purchase through Artist Rising. Some or all of the originals may be available for purchase after I enter them at the Fair. I've accepted that soap & cosmetic crafting is a crime in FL now & moved in a different direction. Thanks everyone for the various feedback & advice.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
112. Gatorxgrrrl
2:25 AM GMT on February 25, 2012
So super impressed with your artwork!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
111. RobDaHood
7:16 PM GMT on February 24, 2012
Skye,
Was over on LC's blog and saw your latest Shuttle drawing.
Very beautiful work!
My favorite yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30689
110. Bogon
4:45 PM GMT on February 24, 2012
Looks like there might be a swirl forming west of Sumatra about 90 east 10 south.
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 76 Comments: 3449
109. Skyepony
6:14 AM GMT on February 24, 2012
I-95 may have a smoke problem in the morning. Fog isn't likely tonight but a fire out near 50 & 46 got out of hand today near 2000 acres. Tomorrow should be hot with higher winds.

FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE CR561 x[THOMPSON PL] [CLERMONT] @ 05:57PM SMOKE IN THE AREA USE CAUTION
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE SR50 E x[MAX HOOKS RD] [CLERMONT] @ 05:57PM NO VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THIS TIME
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE CR561 x[BRONSON RD] [CLERMONT] @ 05:57PM NO VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THIS TIME
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE CR561 x[12TH ST] [CLERMONT] @ 05:57PM NO VISIBILITY ISSUES AT THIS TIME
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST BREVARD SR-50 x[I-95/ WOF] [TITUSVILLE] CLEAR VISIBILITY FROM MM215 TO MM220 @ 19:20
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
108. LowerCal
10:19 PM GMT on February 23, 2012
Heads up for the locals.

The Atlas V launch from Cape Canaveral AFS, Florida has been rescheduled for Friday, February 24 in a 5:15-5:59pm EST time window.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9137
107. mysticmoondancer
5:28 AM GMT on February 23, 2012
Wild weather day here in Volusia/Brevard. .71 here in Deland
Member Since: May 6, 2008 Posts: 18 Comments: 15247
106. RobDaHood
11:59 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
Yeah,
a little nasty in your neck of the woods.
Just wanted to make sure you were paying attention!
(of course you were...that was a dumb question)

Take care Skye!

Oh, Angie might have to break out her regalia and go to one of those Pow-Wows with you one day. She loves them but hasn't been in years!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30689
105. Skyepony
11:12 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
We've been having the weak seabreeze with all this heat. It could come into play today & give that an extra kick at the coast in central Brevard County...


I got some more sewing on the mocs done..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
104. RobDaHood
9:27 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Hilwa is all that is left..

Ylee~ I don't think the wild numbers have really come up anywhere near before. They are making a comeback as the other red meat, in pastures across the land. Really I see them as insurance if mad cow contaminates the beef stock here.

The hides are easier to work with than cow but wears much better for shoes than pig or deer.

Bought a bag of fur scraps for $3 at the Pow wow too. Think there is enough fox in there to go around the tops of the mocs.. Little tribute to Lemon Chicken & a warning to the foxes lurking around here near daily..


ROFL so hard that I forgot what I was gonna type!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 93 Comments: 30689
103. LowerCal
7:34 PM GMT on February 22, 2012
LOL! If I was a fox that would scare the **** out of me.
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9137
102. Skyepony
5:00 AM GMT on February 22, 2012
Hilwa is all that is left..

Ylee~ I don't think the wild numbers have really come up anywhere near before. They are making a comeback as the other red meat, in pastures across the land. Really I see them as insurance if mad cow contaminates the beef stock here.

The hides are easier to work with than cow but wears much better for shoes than pig or deer.

Bought a bag of fur scraps for $3 at the Pow wow too. Think there is enough fox in there to go around the tops of the mocs.. Little tribute to Lemon Chicken & a warning to the foxes lurking around here near daily..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
101. Ylee
11:12 PM GMT on February 21, 2012
Skye, I'm just in my 40s, and I remember when Bison were still endangered. To have them multiply so, and be used commercially, is just amazing!

I bet those mocs will wear good, too! :)
Member Since: February 3, 2011 Posts: 86 Comments: 14582
100. Skyepony
12:03 AM GMT on February 21, 2012
It's so dry & these winds took their toll. Saw a firefighter on the news say East Central FL is getting close to conditions of 1998 (when it about all burnt down last). SR50 & a few others of these will probably close some time in the night when the wind lays down.

FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE THOMPSON PL x[CR-561] [CLERMONT] LIGHT SMOKE IN THE AREA VISIBILITY GOOD @ 04:09
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE MAX HOOKS RD x[SR-50 E] [CLERMONT] ROAD CLEAR OF SMOKE VISIBILITY GOOD @ 04:04HRS
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST VOLUSIA SR-40 x[SR-11] [ORMOND BEACH] ROAD OPEN
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST LAKE CR561 x[BRONSON RD] [CLERMONT] ALL ROADS OPEN // NO VISIBILITY ISSUES
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST BREVARD EB SR50 E x[HACIENDA DR] [TITUSVILLE] ALL LANES REOPENED---NO VISIBILITY ISSUES@4:26 PM
FIRE - BRUSH/FOREST 06:34 PM 06:34 PM LAKE 12TH ST x[CR-561] [CLERMONT] ROAD OPEN
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
99. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:37 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 21 2012
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
98. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (994 hPa) located at 18.8S 64.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.4S 63.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 20.2S 62.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.4S 62.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.5S 63.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection has built over the center of the system since 1400 PM UTC. Hilwa is located below the axis of the upper tropospheric ridge and the upper level wind shear is weak (cf. CIMSS analysis). Lower level environmental conditions are marginal : monsoon feeding remains poor. Sea surface temperature are favorable north of 26s.

Within the next 24 hours, system is expected to recurve south-west and then south southwestward under the steering influence of the mid tropospheric ridge in its east.

Up to 24 hours, environmental conditions should little change and the intensity of the system should little change. At 36 hours and beyond, northwesterly upper level wind shear is expected to increase sharply and system is forecast to weaken rapidly and merge with a polar trough by 7 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
97. Skyepony
5:15 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
RIP 01W...Hopefully the rest of the WPAC season is so weak.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
96. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:10 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 20 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Final tropical cyclone advisory on this system unless system re-intensifies
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
95. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:10 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HILWA (10-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa (995 hPa) located at 18.9S 65.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
40-60 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.1S 64.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 19.9S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.0S 62.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 27.5S 64.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

0441 AM UTC ASCAT swath shows an improving low level circulation within the last 12 hours in the western semi-cercle. TRMM data of 0659 AM UTC suggest that convection is organizing into curved band around the center.

System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestward then southwestward around the highs of low troposphere and finally southward Wednesday evacuating with the trough.

The weakening of the vertical wind shear on the system , and the temporally polar outflow channel building with the approaching upper level trough give a gap of intensification of 24 to 36 hours. However in relationship with a lack of low level inflow (mainly equatorward), intensification of the system may remain laborious.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service on TC HILWA will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
94. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:09 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Filling In Depression, Former Giovanna (1001 hPa) located at 24.9S 53.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant with gradient effect

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.2S 52.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
24 HRS: 22.0S 52.5E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================

On the last cc satellite imagery the low level circulation is completely exposed very far northwest of the convection.The system has weakened very rapidly.

Its steering flow is now located in lower troposphere. The track of the residual low is a north northwestward recurve due to the high subtropicales rebuilding in the south of the system.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are very defavourable with a strong westerly then southwesterly vertical wind shear due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting southeast of madagascar.

The residual low is forecast to fill up, within a broad area of low pressure over the mascarene islands.

This is the last warning about this system unless re-intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
93. Skyepony
2:14 PM GMT on February 20, 2012
Morning all..Giovanna is heading out to cooler waters. 13S looks a little better today..should miss the two islands to west of it.


Scored a 2 1/2ft/sq of Buffalo hide for $5 at the pow wow. Making me some moccasins from it (free pattern). Got to the part where I can do bead work on the top. Decisions, decisions!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
92. Skyepony
12:58 AM GMT on February 20, 2012
(ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.70.

29mph gust was my high for the day. Stuff was blowing & falling from the trees, the ponies playful.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
91. Skyepony
5:05 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
13S has little convection. 01W is having a hard time getting past a single spit firing from the center. Sun setting on Giovanna. Click pic for loop.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
90. Skyepony
4:39 PM GMT on February 19, 2012
Good day for a rain dance..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
89. Skyepony
12:43 AM GMT on February 19, 2012
733 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
A DENSE FOG SMOKE MIX MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE
THOMSON MARSH FIRE ACROSS AREAS JUST WEST OF CLERMONT INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 50. USE EXTRA CAUTION IN THESE AREAS IF
DRIVING DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE LINE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARD 6 FEET BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AWAY FROM
THE COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO AFFECT LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM MID SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE ON SUNDAY.

$$

VOLKMER

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
88. Skyepony
10:40 PM GMT on February 18, 2012
93W is 01W now.. WPac sees it's first storm of the year.

Sun finally came out..caused a weak east coast seabreeze to march inland from Brevard. Popped up just west of here. Pretty strange for February.

Thunder on the Beach PowWow was fun. It's still going on tomorrow at the Indian River County Fairgrounds in Vero.

Hades~ Models didn't do so hot with Giovanna. Thanks for all the updates.

LowerCal~ Been watching the launch progress on your blog. Glad it was scrubbed again.

The wine article was interesting. I do alot of growing using biodynamics. Plants like people & the ocean are influenced by the different cycles & such. Never thought of comparing the flavor, I've always used it in terms of better germination, growth & yields.

Rob~ I did some of that too. The last babies I planted are growing quick. Gonna need put out in the big pots & bed soon.

I'll get caught up more in a bit..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36173
87. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:41 AM GMT on February 17, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.5S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.7S 42.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.6S 43.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.6S 45.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.1S 46.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity is very fluctuating and ASCAT 1832 PM UTC shows a strong winds crown rather far from the center. Last 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath covers partially the circulation but confirms this maximum winds radii at about 75 km away from the center.

Track forecast keeps a large uncertainty despite last numerical weather prediction models become in a better agreement for a globally eastwards motion. Last night upper level constraint (refer to cirrus arc in the west on infrared imagery) is expected to progressively relax, system should therefore intensify again. Within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage. On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Despite last ECMWF numerical weather prediction run shows an oversea track, RSMC's one forecast a landfall in the region of Sainte-Marie Cape and then a weakening to dissipation.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
86. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:41 AM GMT on February 17, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
85. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:37 AM GMT on February 17, 2012
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.3S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the western semi-circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 25.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.7S 44.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, micro-waves data at 1722 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambican coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) or quite stationary during the next 12-24 hours then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) towards the Malagasy coasts

However, the last ECMWF ensemble still gives a quite equal weight to the two scenario ... for the moment the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS/UKMO consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond tau60. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
84. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:36 AM GMT on February 17, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.0S 80.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 79.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.2S 77.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.8S 73.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 67.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Overall presentation of the system remain always fluctuating. With the has deterioration of the convection last afternoon, end despite of a new small nightly burst of convection, the system remains into a unfavorable environment. No low level humidity inflow equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Moreover, as the upper level trough located south of the system will move away, the system is still expected to be more or less under a east-north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge.

Monday, upper level conditions could become more conducive for further development with a better divergence south of the system.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south. At the end of the forecast period, the track should take a more southwestwards component as the system should round the subtropical ridge located to its southeast.

Last warning about this system unless re-intensification
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702

Viewing: 134 - 84

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About Skyepony

Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.

Personal Weather Stations

West Eau Gallie
Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperature: 87.8 °F
Dew Point: 68.0 °F
Humidity: 52%
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: -
Updated: 1:00 PM EDT on April 24, 2014
Forge Mountain
Mills River, NC
Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperature: 77.5 °F
Dew Point: 40.9 °F
Humidity: 27%
Wind: 1.8 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 4.6 mph
Updated: 1:00 PM EDT on April 24, 2014
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
Etowah, NC
Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperature: 64.0 °F
Dew Point: 38.0 °F
Humidity: 38%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 12:12 PM EDT on April 24, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations