Atlas Launch Delay & Weather News

By: Skyepony , 9:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2007

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Todays Launch of the Atlas carrying some classified military stuff was delayed til

Date: June 15, 2007 (Friday)

Launch Period: 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M. EDT

For easy online viewing go here.

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Weather News~

british flooding

Bangladesh flooding


Exceptional drought spreading from Alabama into Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia


Met Office to unveil new Atlantic tropical storm forecast

Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust

Australia's drought may end

71 die in torrential rains in China

Gonu inflicts $1bn damage

Video~ unclaimed Katrina victims in warehouse await memorail

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NOAA has done a nice article on Rip currents figured I'd feature some of it this week since we tend to loose some tourist & a few locals to this phenominon every year.

Rip currents are narrow channels of fast-moving water that pull swimmers away from the shore. Panicked swimmers fail trying to counter the current by swimming straight back to shore � putting themselves at risk of drowning because of fatigue. Rip currents account for more than 80 percent of rescues performed by lifeguards, totaling tens of thousands of people in the United States every year. An estimated 100 people are killed by rip currents annually.

To escape a rip current swim on the surface parrallel to shore till your out of it.



The rip current hazard for the day for ECFL is posted with the hazard graphics of this blog & updates in real time. They occure all up & down the east coast so check the area forecast where your swimming.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Fri~ cooler~ 80s & less rain, around 30% chance. Best chance inland & south~scattered showers do carry a chance of severe storms.

Weekend~ May have a low to TD develop from 94L around the Yucatan & move over the south 1/2 of the state with good rain. Most likely it never is gonna make it to a deep single low but more like several weeker lows. It's currently being sheared pretty hard north but conditions should change as the low level front over the keys lifts to the north.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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Atlantic
94L~ 20kts 1006mb



EPAC
TD3E~ gone

WPAC
95W~gone


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~
Updated June 11th~ The monthly is out. Their take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in the next 3 months. (a sudden dive is looking less likely)

Regions 1&2 stayed the same this week, regions 3 fell to -.8, while 3,4 & region 4 stayed the same.

We are still barely on the cool side of neutral

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.

ESPI rose from -0.04 to -.00 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the next week or 2 with more cooling after.

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78. Skyepony
8:26 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Good afternnon Rays & Rainman & eveyone.

Rocket launched, had a thing & missed it. Busy day

Recon was cancelled
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 15/1800Z IN GULF OF MEXICO
CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1235Z.

94L looks to have gathered a little better during the day, but that low up by VA has done nothing but go wandering, perhaps even south a little...pushing 94L's convection up under Cuba for now.

Notice thay haven't run any of the invest models since 00Z as well.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
77. Rainman32
12:09 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Hmmm... you can color me dubious

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
76. Raysfan70
10:16 AM GMT on June 15, 2007
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
75. Skyepony
1:47 AM GMT on June 15, 2007
That buoy west of the caymons took a dive & now we have 94L...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
74. whitewabit (Mod)
5:27 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
hello Dee and Skye...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
73. Skyepony
5:24 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
Dee~ Have a great weekend. The cmc has gone back to a TD crossing SFL exit over your house on ECFL, then ride the east coast up into GA. Maybe secure the garbage cans, but with the shear it's not gonna be anything big if it comes to pass. The biggest threat would be our regular garden varity mesocyclones, waterspouts & such.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
72. stormydee
5:10 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
Hey Skye!!!! :-)
I won't be around this weekend...hopefully all will be quiet.

Hope you are having a great day! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
71. Skyepony
1:21 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
Thanks Gator.. He's really a firey stud pony ya know;)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
70. Skyepony
1:17 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
Good morning all!

Buoy watching south of the caymons


west of the caymons


these should self update

local ships & buoys around there over the last 12 hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
69. Gatorxgrrrl
1:11 PM GMT on June 14, 2007
Morning Skye - loved the picture of your "baby" in my blog - you get the award for the biggest baby!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
68. oakland
10:15 AM GMT on June 14, 2007
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7526
67. Raysfan70
10:13 AM GMT on June 14, 2007
{{Skye}}


Always happens when I want to take the Boat out on the Water.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
66. Skyepony
11:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Hey Gator~ Nice napping storm here. .22" so far.

Here's the last CMC run. It's 1st indication of tropical weather for the weekend. Probibly should have posted the gfdl yesterday when it wass pointing at the same scenerio, just even more warm core.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
65. Gatorxgrrrl
11:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Hi Skye - we got a nice little storm rolling through here a while ago. Hope your doing great!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
64. Skyepony
10:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
psualum95~ just saw the tornado vorticy on radar involed with that last one. Still raining here. Lightning died down enough I'm online for now. Thanks for posting the warnings. A rumble off thunder anywhere near here & I get thrown offline.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
63. psualum95
10:25 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OKEECHOBEE...FORT DRUM...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FORT DRUM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT DRUM BY 630 PM EDT...
FOUR SEASONS ESTATES AND 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKEECHOBEE BY 715 PM
EDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.

LAT...LON 2765 8080 2760 8106 2720 8083 2733 8067
2756 8068 2756 8076

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
62. psualum95
9:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES ...LAKE MARIAN...LAKE KISSIMMEE...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST WEST OF
LAKE MARIAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY TO THE WEST OF AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MARIAN AND
MAY IMPACT STATE ROUTE 60 ACROSS SOUTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

LAT...LON 2798 8111 2793 8134 2765 8112 2768 8091
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
61. psualum95
4:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 am EDT Wed Jun 13 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

much of the northern and central Florida Peninsula
parts of southeast Georgia
coastal waters

Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1130 am until
700 PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles north of
Waycross Georgia to 40 miles southwest of Melbourne Florida. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... cold upper vort sern GA continues moving sewd and will
aid in development of severe thunderstorms this afternoon swd to
central FL. With MLCAPES climbing to aoa 2000 j/kg and 30kt of deep
layer shear... a few supercells are possible... particularly vicinity
E coast sea breeze front. Primary threat will be large hail and
downbursts.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 27020.


... Hales
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
60. Raysfan70
10:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2007
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
59. Fshhead
2:27 AM GMT on June 13, 2007
Hey Skye!!!! Yea nasty conditions here in Miami today, I am hoping the freakin' lake got a good shot of it!!!!! Any idea if it did???
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
58. Skyepony
2:23 AM GMT on June 13, 2007
Slideshow of ECFL damage from today's storms.

Today's lightnin
Total strokes: 23,194 (avg. 17.5/min.)
Cloud to ground: 21,187 - 91.3% (avg. 16.0/min.)
Peak stroke count: 146 at 1:42:55 PM

49mph gusts in Orlando
46mph gusts in Melbourne
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
57. Skyepony
12:04 AM GMT on June 13, 2007
Gator~ seems the farther north the more rain today... I'm happy for our NFL hay.

Article on horse, drought & hay

COLUMBIA-The recent floods and above average rainfall this spring might make it difficult to remember last year's drought, but horse owners are still feeling the effects. Take a look at the problems they face now.

Last year's drought was not good for the hay crop, which is the primary food source for horses.

"People faced with the shortage of hay for the horses have been buying hay and alfalfa from the states beyond Missouri and some of the alfalfa contains a lot of selenium," Dr. Philip johnson of the MU Veterinary School said.

Johnson says selenium is a normal nutrient that can be problematic in large doses.

Some owners couldn't import hay and were forced to feed their horses the bad Missouri hay, which led to a vitamin-E deficiency in a few horses.

Now horse owners are watching out for a couple of symptoms. Weight loss or the loss of hair from the mane and tail, and cracking in the feet are a few red flags that point to selenium poisoning.

Weakness, loss of muscle mass, trembling muscles and the tendency for the horse to want to get off its feet can all be signs of a vitamin-E deficiency.

If your horse is showing any of these symptoms, Johnson says to take your horse to the vet. However, he also says a simple blood test may not show effects selenium has had on the horse.

"The diagnosis is based on circumstances, importation of alfalfa from a problematic area for example," Johnson said

Horse owners can look forward to a better hay crop this time around.

"As far as mineral deficiency caused by a drought, we don't see any of that this year, we don't expect it," Johnson said

Johnson also says that if a horse is showing these symptoms, all horses who are eating the same food should be tested. All of the horses effected are expected to make full recoveries.

Edited by: Field Sutton
Reported by: Courtney Schultz


Published: Tuesday, June 12, 2007 at 6:08 PM
Last Updated: Tuesday, June 12, 2007 at 6:34 PM
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
56. Gatorxgrrrl
10:29 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
We got less that half an inch. It did rain hard, just not that long.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
55. Skyepony
7:33 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Got .73" here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
54. Skyepony
5:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Messy Tornado report~

1524 ANASTASIA ST. JOHNS FL 2983 8127 PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO. WITNESS REPORTS IT BLEW A PORT-O-LET SEVERAL YARDS AND INTO HER DRIVEWAY. (JAX)

CPC
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
53. psualum95
5:06 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
174
WUUS52 KMLB 121649
SVRMLB
FLC069-117-127-121745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0042.070612T1646Z-070612T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1246 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ORANGE CITY AND ANOTHER NEAR CASSIA...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DELTONA...LAKE MARY...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...SANFORD...
LONGWOOD...CASSELBERRY...OSTEEN...WINTER SPRINGS...AND GENEVA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2923 8148 2898 8170 2862 8141 2868 8090

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
52. Skyepony
4:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
But it does seem the way we get it at the end of drought. Hail is bad for my garden. I've had more crops destroyed that way than all others combined.

Start of the Wet Season*
Orlando May 26
Daytona Beach May 28
Melbourne/Vero Beach
(approximated) May 26
Ft. Pierce/Stuart
(approximated) May 25

MLB NWS

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
51. psualum95
4:35 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
This not my preferred method of getting my rain...
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
50. psualum95
4:34 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1127 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1119 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF PALM COAST TO
15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALM COAST...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH TO HASTINGS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PALM
COAST...BUNNELL AND FLAGLER BEACH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 800-499-1594 TO REPORT
SEVERE WEATHER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2942 8115 2928 8121 2962 8140 2962 8133
2965 8131 2966 8120 2962 8117 2954 8115
2944 8110

$$
ZAPPE
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
49. psualum95
4:33 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
683
WUUS52 KMLB 121618
SVRMLB
FLC127-121715-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0041.070612T1614Z-070612T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1214 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ORMOND BY THE SEA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA BEACH...PORT ORANGE...WILBUR BY THE SEA...
PONCE INLET...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...EDGEWATER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

OTHER STORMS FORMING TO THE WEST WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2940 8106 2926 8143 2876 8104 2893 8071

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
48. Skyepony
4:29 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Glad you came through that good Rainman~ I hear ya'll, heck this morning I posted in the blog severe weather likely which is pretty strong wording for me. May try for an early trip to the pool, gotta be back before this comes rolling through.

Make sure to go to the tracker2 part then play with the buttons below on that link.

psualum95~ Thanks for keeping the watches & warnings coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
47. Rainman32
4:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Hey Again Skye!.. Thanks for the links, new ones for my favorites. Y'all keep your eyes open and keep safe!
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
46. psualum95
4:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 am EDT Tue Jun 12 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

central Florida Peninsula
coastal waters

Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1130 am until 700
PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 80
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Orlando Florida to 50 miles south of Avon Park Florida. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (wous64 kwns wou5).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information... continue... ww 384...

Discussion... established cold pool with organized line of
thunderstorms across northern FL and destabilizing downstream air
mass with MUCAPE up to 3000 j/kg will maintain forward propagation
and attendant threat for primarily damaging winds southward into
central FL. Large hail will also be possible with this activity.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 30025.


... Peters/hales

;290,0803 270,0800 270,0824 290,0831
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340
45. Skyepony
3:18 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Me too Rainman..

Long tracking tornado vorticy in NEFL (current JAX radar)~ careful up there.

Rain storm totals for NFL

So far only a tree down up there. Probibly be more soon.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
44. Rainman32
1:05 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Good Morning Skye! Love that NexSat imagery



MODIS data provided by the NOAA/NASA Near Real Time Processing Effort (NRTPE).
MODIS data also provided by the Space, Science, and Engineering Center (SSEC) at the University of Madison-Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS).
Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
43. Skyepony
1:01 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Good morning everyone.

Cute frog Rays.

Dee I was gonna go bump up your blog lastnight & wabit distracted me:) Good to see you around.

Here's a nexsat animation of the blob off FL. Looks to be moving way too quick at the moment to become anything other than added severe weather for FL.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
42. stormydee
12:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2007
Hey Skye!!! Hope you are having a great day!!! As always, very interesting blog!!! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
41. Raysfan70
10:27 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Myspace Layouts
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
40. whitewabit (Mod)
4:40 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
ok...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
39. Skyepony
4:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
Certainly wab~ don't need the NWS hesitating to issue a warning, wondering if it's a false report. I'm hopping to your blog:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
38. Skyepony
4:36 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
There~ ENSO update is up.. Gotta say, gotta a little less confidence on the short term prediction. ESPI seems to be maxing, like we should got on another trend down soon but looking at the T-depths.


The warm water looks to have made a little ground up, pushing the cold back.

Anyone kept up with the MJO this week & have some thoughts on the long term affect it may or not play on this second scenario?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
37. whitewabit (Mod)
4:32 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
yes had been reading the other reports and then copied the way they were written...

Hope they catch him...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
36. Skyepony
4:24 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
That's sick reporting injuries. Sounded like someone pretty familiar with the reports & all.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
35. whitewabit (Mod)
4:16 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
most of the time the reports were real time so would think a home computer
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
34. whitewabit (Mod)
4:14 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
from the same computer all of them...think there were 7 of them one a tornado on the ground with injuries...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
33. Skyepony
4:09 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
That's right, I didn't realize that. Sounds like quite a few. Wonder why they hadn't tracked the computer. Perhaps a public one?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
32. whitewabit (Mod)
4:03 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
Hello Skye...those false reports that guy was sending in is right up here by me...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 362 Comments: 31358
31. Skyepony
3:56 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
Mermaidlaw~ overall we should see less shear because of the Neutral to cool ENSO & less dust due to more rain in Africa. 2005~ Had less shear but was a record year for alotta dust. Researchers are thinking in that case the dust was keeping the system from blowing up & turning N sooner, inturn putting the gulf under the gun of the big ones.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
30. Skyepony
3:53 AM GMT on June 12, 2007
Alright a LOOD advisery :)

That storm messed with my DSL & took me offline a bit. It was really lightning to bad to have the computer on anyway. .67" here.

Today's Lightnin stat summary~
Total strokes: 42,865 (avg. 30.2/min.)

Intracloud/Intercloud: 7084 - 16.5% (avg. 5.0/min.)

Cloud to ground: 35,141 - 82.0% (avg. 24.7/min.)

Peak stroke count: 439 at 5:52:40 PM



000
NWUS52 KMLB 120147
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0337 PM HAIL DAYTONA BEACH 29.21N 81.03W
06/11/2007 E0.75 INCH VOLUSIA FL TRAINED SPOTTER

NOVA ROAD AND FIG TREE ROAD

0337 PM DOWNBURST DAYTONA BEACH 29.21N 81.03W
06/11/2007 VOLUSIA FL AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN INDRIO ROAD

0337 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W CHULUOTA 28.64N 81.17W
06/11/2007 M52 MPH SEMINOLE FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF WEATHER TOWER 2016 AT 54 FEET


&&

$$

FXD




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Also a house in Oviedo was hit by lightnin~ caught a raging fire & a 30 acre blaze was started by lightning in Daytona near the LPGA BLVD. (these last 2 were on WFTV)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37806
29. mermaidlaw
11:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2007
Thanks Skye. I just wonder if the shear will remain high again this year. Alot of people are saying that the SAL will be lower this year.
Stay safe! i don't want to be in the way of weather warnings!
Member Since: July 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 8800
28. psualum95
11:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2007
LOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
725 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

FLC009-120030-
BREVARD-
725 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PATRICK AIR FORCE BASE...PALM
BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...WEST MELBOURNE...SATELLITE
BEACH...INDIALANTIC...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 725 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED JOHN RODES ROAD
WAS UNDER 3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS WELL AS
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. IN ADDITION...MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL IN
HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 7340

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