Forecaster, Skywarn, Horse Trainer, Artist and Gardener...I help moderate the Blogs at WeatherUnderground.
By: Skyepony , 9:04 PM GMT on June 09, 2007
Todays Launch of the Atlas carrying some classified military stuff was delayed til
Date: June 15, 2007 (Friday)
Launch Period: 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M. EDT
For easy online viewing go here.
Exceptional drought spreading from Alabama into Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia
Met Office to unveil new Atlantic tropical storm forecast
Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust
Australia's drought may end
71 die in torrential rains in China
Gonu inflicts $1bn damage
Video~ unclaimed Katrina victims in warehouse await memorail
NOAA has done a nice article on Rip currents figured I'd feature some of it this week since we tend to loose some tourist & a few locals to this phenominon every year.
Rip currents are narrow channels of fast-moving water that pull swimmers away from the shore. Panicked swimmers fail trying to counter the current by swimming straight back to shore � putting themselves at risk of drowning because of fatigue. Rip currents account for more than 80 percent of rescues performed by lifeguards, totaling tens of thousands of people in the United States every year. An estimated 100 people are killed by rip currents annually.
To escape a rip current swim on the surface parrallel to shore till your out of it.
The rip current hazard for the day for ECFL is posted with the hazard graphics of this blog & updates in real time. They occure all up & down the east coast so check the area forecast where your swimming.
NHC Tropical Disscusion
Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.
Click to make larger
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados
These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook
Watching for rain..
click map to go interactive
Fri~ cooler~ 80s & less rain, around 30% chance. Best chance inland & south~scattered showers do carry a chance of severe storms.
Weekend~ May have a low to TD develop from 94L around the Yucatan & move over the south 1/2 of the state with good rain. Most likely it never is gonna make it to a deep single low but more like several weeker lows. It's currently being sheared pretty hard north but conditions should change as the low level front over the keys lifts to the north.
click maps to make bigger
Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.
Click to make maps bigger.
Tropical Depression Probibility
94L~ 20kts 1006mb
Updated June 11th~ The monthly is out. Their take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in the next 3 months. (a sudden dive is looking less likely)
Regions 1&2 stayed the same this week, regions 3 fell to -.8, while 3,4 & region 4 stayed the same.
We are still barely on the cool side of neutral
Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.
ESPI rose from -0.04 to -.00 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the next week or 2 with more cooling after.
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