Skyepony's WunderBlog

MJO, Doldrums & ENSO
Posted by: Skyepony, 5:08 AM GMT on July 25, 2007 +3
The MJO.

green denotes active MJO areas~ increased rain, enhanced chances of cyclones. The brown is none active supressed areas.

Another view of where it has been up to in graphic form.


On to the doldrums~ The blue shows where the surface wind has been low for atleast 4 days now. This raises SST in those areas.

This is also usually pretty bad for any coral in these areas this time of year.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

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Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive






WED-FRI~ Rain chances 60% day, 30% night. Interior & east coast has the best chance for the afternoon sea breeze storms. Coverage should be good so noone is out of the question. Watch for severe weather. Temps should be about normal for this time of year.

Sat & Sun~ Active rainy period most likely continues.
.



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Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

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STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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I guess that ULL I was watching was 97L a short time & is now gone. Missed it.

CPAC

06E~COSME gone

EPAC 98E~Dalila 45kts 1000mb~ shouldn't hit land.


WPAC 96W~15kts 1010mb

Southern Hemisphere~ 25kts 1004mb
This is wierd for this time of the year. So much so a pic for the arcives.


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Updated July 24th~ weekly is out. Their summary stayed the same reading~ dynamic models call for rapid transition to La Nina where statistical models & recent trends in surface & subsurface tempuratures suggest either a slower evolution to La Nina or the continuation of ENSO neutral conditions.

Regions 1&2 stayed at -1.9, region 3 ended at -.7, 3.4 back up from -.4 to -.2, and region 4 rose from .2 to .3



We're still on the cool side of neutral. The fall of ENSO has moderated once again for now.

The cool pool below continues to build, moved some toward the surface as well, but the warm water from the west is fighting back once again. Nature's ebb & flow.


this is a look back over the last year with Aug of 2006 at the top, now at the bottom~ the left the west Pacific, the right the east end of the Pacific, a skinny snap shot of the water stretched across the equator, then stacked though time. We looked due for a little moderation.


ESPI fell from -1.11 to -1.21 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. The moderation I called for has happened, the next week or 2 should bring near the same or slightly cooler. Make it to La Nina condition? Maybe in the next drop. Probibly not in the next 2 weeks.
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101. psualum95 1:37 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
*Baby Bump*


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -1.73
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
102. seflagamma 2:46 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Ok Skye,

If you didn't come home tonight, you have VERY GOOD INSURANCE, but if you have exceptional insurance you will be home tomorrow.


We all are so excited about the birth of little Dragonfly!!!!!

cannot wait for the posts...but don't let this pressure you into getting on the blogs too soon , LOL... I know you will take care of home before coming to let us all know about your experience!!!! LOL!!!

Hugs and Kisses to you and your family!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483
103. seflagamma 2:47 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
I'll bet that little dragonfly is the most handsome boy in the world (except for my son and my grandsons of course) LOL!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483
104. seflagamma 3:58 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
baby bump!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483
105. Skyepony 4:08 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Hey everyone! I lived.. Got home this afternoon. Had alotta company, a parade that just stopped. After Dragonfly spent the day being handed around he's up late (as expected) looking for some of my time. So when he goes to sleep all depends on when & if gamma gets the birth story tonight. It's a long one.

Couldn't help but look, interesting feature off Jaxsonville (not 98L).

I read all the comments, thanks everyone for thinking of us, I needed all the good thoughts ya'll sent. That was way rougher than I expected. The poems are going on his wall.. Thanks {{{everyone}}}.

I'll try to get back later tonight.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29266
106. whitewabit (Mod) 4:10 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
REST!!!!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 322 Comments: 24034
107. LakeWorthFinn 4:10 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
{{{Skye}}} !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6956
108. LakeWorthFinn 4:12 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Wab's right, sleep when Dragonfly sleeps, be awake when he is. You'll recover soonest!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6956
109. Redhead 4:24 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    

Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com


I hope you and Dragonfly have a good night of rest, {{{Skye}}}!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
110. seflagamma 4:24 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Hi skye,

I was thinking you may get home tonight...just because hospitals don't keep you more than 24 hrs any longer.

Hey!!! I did the best I could with you calling my work number instead of my home number LOL!!!

and dragonfly is a wonderful handle; that little boy will be able to say "WUBA" at 9 mos old just like Rylee!!!

You get some rest and I will be here to bug you tomorrow.


Talk to you later

"Auntie Gamma" LOL!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40483
111. Skyepony 5:19 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Ya'll are right, chance to sleep is here so I'm gone.. Yes you can say I have an arcival problem~ real quick, had to look at it anyway..



Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29266
112. incogkneetoe 10:59 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Greetings from Newfoundland

Its sunday already, where did the weekend go??? Now its time to kick back, relax and enjoy whats left of your weekend.

Take care and be safe

Gary
Member Since: June 18, 2007 Posts: 447 Comments: 9370
113. OGal 11:04 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Myspace Graphics - Happy Sunday

Good Morning Skye and Dragonfly! Hope soft breezes touch both your faces this morning!!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19170
114. Raysfan70 11:54 AM GMT on July 29, 2007    
{{Skye}}
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57352
115. psualum95 2:20 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Glad you are home *hug*

Get some rest!!! Hope to talk to you later today!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
116. psualum95 8:05 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS...APPROACHING THE WATERS ALONG THE SPACE
COAST. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF BREVARD COUNTY.


MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
117. auburn (Mod) 8:15 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
I was worried about ya Sky...happy to hear you and Dragonfly are home safe and sound...get some rest if ya can..and relax
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 538 Comments: 46640
118. Gatorxgrrrl 8:21 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Hi Skye - thinking about you and your boy:) And the ponys and little skye...lol
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15596
119. psualum95 8:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Issue Time
Sun, Jul 29, 4:36pm EDT Expires At
Sun, Jul 29, 5:15pm EDT Expires In
35 mins


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FLZ047-292115-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER GRANT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE MICCO.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. STATE LAW REQUIRES
HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
120. psualum95 8:58 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Issue Time
Sun, Jul 29, 4:53pm EDT Expires At
Sun, Jul 29, 5:45pm EDT Expires In
50 mins


732

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
453 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT


* AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WABASSO...OR ABOUT OVER
WABASSO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
WINTER BEACH...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...GIFFORD...VERO BEACH...VERO
BEACH SOUTH...SOUTH BEACH AND VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
121. psualum95 9:14 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
456 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FORT PIERCE INLET OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT


* AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS OVER ORCHID...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

*THE THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EAST OF SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH AND VERO BEACH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT...ESPECIALLY THOSE UNDER SAIL...
SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE HARBOR IF POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE YOU AND YOUR CREW
ARE WEARING APPROVED FLOTATION DEVICES DURING THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
122. psualum95 9:15 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Issue Time
Sun, Jul 29, 5:08pm EDT Expires At
Sun, Jul 29, 6:15pm EDT Expires In
59 mins



579
WUUS52 KMLB 292109
SVRMLB
FLC111-292215-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0092.070729T2108Z-070729T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
508 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT


* AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF LAKEWOOD
PARK...OR ABOUT OVER GIFFORD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
INDRIO...QUEENS COVE...SAINT LUCIE VILLAGE...SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT...
PEPPER BEACH PARK...FORT PIERCE INLET...FORT PIERCE...WHITE CITY
AND INDIAN RIVER ESTATES

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
123. Skyepony 9:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Hey everyone~ only got a few min. That opertunitity to sleep lastnight was short lived (15 min) then the angel baby was up all night & most the day. Finally getting a bit o sleep out of him. I had a few naps earlier. Husband is a great dad & gives me breaks. He'll be around the next few weeks so I don't have it quite as rough as many do with one this age.

Gator & ya'll south of me look out, that looks nasty!

As far as labor & delivery, was hell. Much harder than the 1st which I had done with no pain killers. This time labored on & off 24 hrs before heading to the hospital around 11pm. Contractions every 2-3 min if not on top of one another. I couldn't sit or lay down without previously unknown pain. (were my hip bones gonna break???) Around 3am I couldn't keep from pushing, it was too early, things were brused & stalled, I was stuck & the pain like nothing ever before. Started screaming epidural when i was about to pass out from pain & a few hours had passed with no progression. The epidural about made the husband pass out. That took a little after 4am. Things got real scary then, though it took me a bit to realize that since my Blood Pressure dropped from the epi to near dead levels. I started coming to again when the bottom # was back in the 30s to realize the room was full of paniced people & Dragonfly's Heart Rate had been dangerously low for the last 6 min~ also due to the epi. They brought me back just in time to get me to start huffing oxygen as hard as I could. It brought Dragonfly around so I avoided my 1st of many opertunities to have that kid cut outta me to save him. It took several hours & alotta phedrine to stabilize my blood pressure. If I got calm & relaxed more than 30 mins it got too low anyway. Thanks Mom for the lively debates when needed to keep it up. I was also on Oxygen the rest of the delivery for Dragonfly, his heart rate kept dropping & I kept huffing. This causes sore throats!! Around 8:15am Petocin was started after still no progress. Around 12:15pm the nurse thought it may be time to push, than not time, got all nervous & another Dragonfly scare all in 4 mins. So I refused to cooperate beyond what had worked so far til I saw my Doctor, who was there in 3 minutes. Took charge & we got him out pretty quick after that. The 1st 1/2 of pushing Dragonfly would near quit the heart rate after each set of pushes, I'd have to start huffing before I could even start recovering. Scary. & that dang nurse was freaking the husband with her hand gestures & whispers. Well born at 1:01pm..finally. Wasn't breathing, 1/2 blue~ ApGar at birth was a 6 & in 5 min a 10. Thank you respatory lady who had been called in on standby & of course my doc & to all ya'll that sent your good thoughts & wishes.

An after thought~ My doctor informed me that had I not totally quit smoking near 7 months ago my circulation wouldn't have been good enough to carry the oxygen to Dragonfly & it most defenately would have ended in a c-section. Biggest reward yet & one I never saw coming.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29266
124. reeldrlaura 9:52 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
GREAT Labor story, Skye!!! Congratulations.....on so many wonderful accomplishments. Now rest, and snuggle with your precious Dragonfly!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6006
125. SWFLgazer 11:35 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Skyepony: Congratulations and good luck. May all your suprises be plesant ones.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
126. OGal 11:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Hugs and kisses to you and Dragonfly!
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19170
127. oneshotww 11:57 PM GMT on July 29, 2007    
Skye, how scary, got goosebumps reading it. Glad to hear that everything finally worked out OK. Talk about stress!!! Hopefully now all will settle down and the whole family can enjoy the sweet baby. Best wishes to all.
Member Since: October 12, 2003 Posts: 322 Comments: 1794
128. palmettobug53 12:13 AM GMT on July 30, 2007    
Oooh, that give me the ooglies just thinking about it!

So glad everything worked out OK and you and little Dragonfly are fine and home where you belong!

(((HUGS))) from Auntie Bug!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 206 Comments: 21440
129. carolinagal 1:40 AM GMT on July 30, 2007    
I bet you are enjoying plenty of hugs with little Dragonfly. I'm so thankful that ordeal is over and you can enjoy his sweetness.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 154 Comments: 6711
130. psualum95 1:58 AM GMT on July 30, 2007    
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6483
131. AllyBama 2:19 AM GMT on July 30, 2007    

glitter-graphics.com

Congratulations Skye!..so glad to hear that all is well with you and Dragonfly after your "less than average" labor and delivery.


Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499
132. AllyBama 2:21 AM GMT on July 30, 2007    

glitter-graphics.com

..and CONGRATULATIONS to the BIG SISTER, who is still the Princess!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499
133. LynneM 4:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2007    
Congratulations to the entire family.
134. guygee 6:20 PM GMT on August 03, 2007    
Hey Skye, congratulations! I had no idea. Guess I really am just a foul-weather friend after all, lol.

Reading your labor story sent chills up my spine. I sat by my wife's side for all four of my son's births, fortunately she was fast on delivery. The only scary one was with the birth of our 3rd son Dylan, he was delivered face up, which was brutal for my wife. We had a real "naturalist" midwife, Sara, who lived in the duplex next door who we were good friends with, and it was comforting to have her there along with the doctor. When the time came for the final push my wife screamed bloody murder and the baby literally flew out through the air into the doctor's hands. As the doctor and Sara tended to my wife they let me hold my new son as I was guided into the adjoining room. I noticed something was wrong, he wasn't crying. His head was all misshapen and bruised. He was a conehead!

Everything turned out OK, and that was a long time ago. Now I have two teenagers plus two 21+ year old sons who moved out and then moved back, LOL.

I hope your new little Dragonfly is the peaceful dreamy type and not a colicy one who cries like every waking minute. With a new baby around, I sure appreciate your taking time occasionally to post to the main blog. Your posts are among the best (seriously, I even checked with the "Best" filter!).

Cheers!
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