BUSHFIRES STILL BURNING IN VICTORIA AUSTRALIA (
ozcazz)
First of all I would like to thank all of those that have taken the time to send messages & there prayers and love during this trying time. Bushfires are still burning here and we are leaving the area today as there is a fire in a place called Koetong and Shelley Forest where there is a large pine plantation that a fire is burning there. These pictures are taken not far from us of the smoke. We have at least been given the chance to pack all the photos and "special things" that we want to take with us,so sadly so many other's have not had that chance. The death toll keeps going up every day the sadness that we are all feeling also the "fear" which has gripped so many we all feel that we are living on the edge of a knife. This is the "worst" disaster that has hit our state and country and it is still going on. We will be going to Melbourne & sailing to family in Tasmania. Again thank you there are so many that that have sent the most sincerest messages and when I get a chance I will answer each and everyone of them.
Sure hope that your having a lovely day in your part of the world today.
click maps to go interactive
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>Death by Multiple Poisoning, Glyphosate and Roundup
>***************************************************
>
>Scientists pinpoint how very low concentrations of the
>herbicide and other chemicals in Roundup formulations kill
>human cells, strengthening the case for phasing them out,
>and banning all further releases of Roundup-tolerant GM
>crops Dr. Mae-Wan Ho and Brett Cherry
>
>This article was submitted to the USDA on behalf of ISIS
>
>Four different Roundup formulations of the herbicide
>glyphyosate manufactured by Monsanto are highly toxic to
>human cells, and at concentrations far below the recommended
>agricultural use levels. Researchers at the Institute of
>Biology in Caen, France published their latest results in
>the current issue of Chemical Research in Toxicology [1].
>
>Roundup formulations are lethal cocktails
>*****************************************
>
>The four Roundup formulations are mixtures of glyphosate
>with various adjuvants. (An adjuvant is ‘helper’ substance
>added to aid the effect of the active ingredient.) The Roundup
>formulations are currently the top non-selective herbicides
>worldwide and increasing, as more than 75 percent of
>genetically modified (GM) crops are Roundup tolerant.
>Glyphosate and its major metabolite, aminomethylphosphonic
>acid (AMPA) are main contaminants in rivers. The adjuvants,
>not often measured in the environment, are usually
>considered ‘inert’ and protected as trade secret in
>manufacturing. Among them, the predominant one is
>polyethoxylated tallow amine (POEA). POEA is used as a
>surfactant in Roundup formulations to improve solubility and
>penetration into plants. Three human cell lines were tested:
>primary cell line HUVEC from umbilical cord vein epithelium,
>embryonic cell line 293 derived from kidney, and placenta
>cell line JEG3. All cells died within 24 hours of exposure
>to the Roundup formulations. The Roundup formulations (Rs)
>contain different amounts of the active ingredient
>glyphosate: Roundup Express, 7.2 g/L (R7.2); Roundup
>Bioforce, 360 g/L (R360); Roundup Grand Travaux, 400 g/L
>(R400); and Roundup Grand Travaux Plus, 450 g/L (R450).
>They were compared with glyphosate (G), AMPA, and POEA. All
>Roundup formulations in the study, along with individual
>chemical ingredients, were tested at concentrations from10
>ppm (parts per million) to 2 percent (the recommended
>agricultural usage level), which means that the Roundup
>formulations were diluted up to 100 000 times or more. The
>researchers found that the presence of the other chemical
>ingredients in Roundup formulations, such as POEA, actually
>amplified glyphosateÂ’s toxic effects. The toxicities of the
>Roundup formulations were not proportional to the amount of
>glyphosate they contained, and are most likely due to POEA
>and other as yet undisclosed ingredient(s) present in all
>the formulations. POEA by itself is much more toxic than the
>Roundup formulations, while AMPA is more toxic than
>glyphosate.
>
>
Tropical Depression "BISING" continues to move west towards the southern coast of Southern Leyte.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 (1500z 12FEB)
============================================
At 11:00 p.m. PhST, Tropical Depression Bising located at 9.9°N 126.0°E or 50 kms east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.
Warning Signals
Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h)
---------------------
Visayas Region
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Bohol
7.Negros Oriental
8.Siquijor Island
Mindanao Region
1.Dinagat Province
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Agusan del Norte
6.Camiguin
7.Misamis Oriental
Additional Information
-------------------
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Got the 2 new invests up.
90S is showing game..
ozgalah~ It doesn't sound the least bit strange. In 1998 things got extreme here with 20 days above 100F, no rain in forever, then the fires. When everyone has sprinklers on their roof it's getting serious. About the time the county north of me was completely evacuated, as a huge fire line closed in, everyone wanted a hurricane. Ya'll need this La Nia to end.. get that patch of hot water off your NE. Hope the weather breaks soon for you & we can wish you a storm til then.
Rain~ Thanks, prety exciting to see a satellite's first shot..
Hades~ I guess I'll go 25% chance on 90S, not excited about the other.
Redhead~ Someone told me the little plants in Walmart are up to $3.50. Should be easy sale..
Surfmom~ Amazing how we are just now studying the effects of roundup on human cells.. Thanks for posting this. When Genetic modifying food started I was there in Clemson. We worked on disease resistant, drought/flood tolerance a plant that grew healthier food in less nurishing soil. We were gonna save the world... Of course that got turned into a crop that wouldn't die when sprayed with roundup & the patenting of seeds. I avoid them. Many don't know, since the reasons in the beginning were so different.
Tropical Depression "BISING " has slowed down as it moves closer to the eastern coast of Surigao Del Norte
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3 (2100z 12FEB)
============================================
At 5:00 a.m. PhST, Tropical Depression Bising located at 9.6°N 126.0°E or 45 kms east-southeast of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.
Warning Signals
Warning Signals #1 (30-60 km/h)
---------------------
Visayas Region
1.Eastern Samar
2.Western Samar
3.Biliran Island
4.Leyte Provinces
5.Cebu
6.Bohol
7.Negros Oriental
8.Siquijor Island
Mindanao Region
1.Dinagat Province
2.Siargao Island
3.Surigao del Norte
4.Surigao del Sur
5.Agusan del Norte
6.Camiguin
7.Misamis Oriental
Additional Information
-------------------
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Interesting CMC model has Freddy try to redevelop into maybe "Hina".
Additions to this week's Satellite Anomaly series from NASA Featured Images and Analytical Graphics, Inc. (AGI) Today's Sat Pics (visualizations) O' The Day.
A Beehive of Satellites
The launch of the first artificial satellite by the then Soviet Union in 1957 marked the beginning of the utilization of space for science and commercial activity. During the Cold War, space was a prime area of competition between the Soviet Union and the U.S.
In 1964 the first TV satellite was launched into a geostationary orbit to transmit the Olympic games from Tokyo. Later, Russian launch activities declined while other nations set up their own space programs. Thus, the number of objects in Earth orbit has increased steadily -- by 200 per year on average.
The debris objects shown in the images are an artist's impression based on actual density data. However, the debris objects are shown at an exaggerated size to make them visible at the scale shown.
Image Credit: European Space Agency
Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 Satellite Collision
By Tariq Malik
Senior Editor SPACE.com
posted: 12 February 2009 10:17 am ET
Scientists at NASA are keeping close tabs on two clouds of debris from Tuesday collision between U.S. and Russian satellites to determine how much of a risk they pose to the agency's Earth-watching spacecraft and, possibly, the Hubble Space Telescope.
The rare collision between a U.S. Iridium 33 communications satellite and the defunct Russian military communications satellite Cosmos 2251 is unprecedented, marking the first time two intact satellites orbiting Earth have accidentally crashed into and obliterated one another, NASA officials said. Their smash-up created two large clouds of space debris that are currently being tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network.
The debris poses a greater risk to science satellites than to the International Space Station, which is currently home to two American astronauts and a Russian cosmonaut, since the collision occurred 490 miles (790 km) above Siberia. The space station flies in an orbit about 220 miles (354 km) above Earth.
"This is like over 400 kilometers above the station, so we do believe that some of the debris is going down through station altitude. But it's a very, very small minority of the debris clouds," said Nicholas Johnson, chief scientist of NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. "For robotic spacecraft at higher altitudes, the answer's a little bit different. So one by one we'll be looking at those."
Earth observations satellites, such as NASA's Aqua and Aura spacecraft in orbit 438 miles (705 km) above Earth, are particularly vulnerable - though the risk of an impact is still low - and there's another satellite in a 497-mile (800-km) orbit just above the impact level, Johnson told SPACE.com late Wednesday. The Hubble Space Telescope orbits the Earth at about 372 miles (600 km), Johnson said.
... More at SPACE.com
Tropical Disturbance Summary (2330z 12FEB)
===========================================
An area of convection (91S) located at 18.7S 42.1E or west of Antanana (Madagascar). Animated infrared satellite imagery shows a weak low level circulation center with fragmented and flaring convection. A 1513z windsat pass shows 15 to 20 knot unflagged winds along the western periphery of a poorly defined, elongated low level circulation center. the center of circulation is in an area of favorable sea surface temperatures and is positioned under the upper level axis, strong southwesterly winds in the region is introducing cool, dry air that is stalling further development.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. The potential for the develop of this disturbance into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
System came back.. but for how long before it appears like it has dissipated.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Forecast for area south of 10S between 110E-125E
10:00 AM WDT February 13 2009
=========================================
A weak tropical low now lies well off the west Kimberley coast near 14.5S 116.5E at 9am WDT. It is likely to move in a generally west southwest direction in the next 24 to 48 hours and is not likely to affect the coast. It is unlikely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during Saturday but has some potential to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday or Monday.
There are no other significant lows expected to develop during the outlook period.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==============================
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Tropical Depression "BISING" has weakened into a Low Pressure Area as it interacted with the land mass of Northern Mindanao and Eastern Visayas.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5 (0900z 13FEB) - FINAL
============================================
At 5:00 p.m. PhST, Tropical Depression Bising located at 10.2°N 125.9°E or 70 kms northeast of Surigao City has weakened below warning criteria.
Additional Information
-------------------
All Warning Signal That Was In Effect Are Now Lowered
However, this weather disturbance and the tail-end of a cold front will continue to bring rains over Visayas and Mindanao particularly the Northern and Eastern Visayas as well as Northern and Central Mindanao. Residents along these areas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
With this development and unless re-intensification occurs, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.
91S looks like it's impeeded by Africa. 98W still an invest according to navy, impeed by mountious islands. 90S looks pretty disorganized.
Ate the 1st cauliflower lastnight (snowball). It was delish & I've always hated cauliflower but never had it fresh kill either. Turns out, the leaves are edible too. Put the fried fish on a bed of the young tender raw leaves. Left the bigger ones on the plant to cook like greens. Two more heads appeared in the night. Checkin the seed catolog there's warm & cool version. may get some some of the warm too. Their quick..70 days.
Rain~ Had seen about the collision. I had puposely left it, figuring you'd cover it.. That was beyond expectation. I should have known there would be some graphics out there. Hope Hubble doesn't get hit. There just maybe a line of work one day cleaning up our enviromental mess up there.
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance Ex-Freddy (1004 hPa) located near 19.2S 87.2E is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
Question - Any idea how long Round-up stays in the ground? The reason I ask, is that my sister would return home to find that Dad had decided to visit - with his Round-Up! My sister would beg him not to use that stuff in her yard, but he was pretty hard headed and would sneak the stuff in and Round-up before she would return home. (He had gotten it into his head that because certain areas of the land were difficult to mow, that she would have an accident while mowing.) Been a few years since it was used - he died a couple of years ago.
Thanks - For the heads up on wide spread drought conditions. Talked with my sister, and with siblings, son and niece we will be developing a serious garden this year. We need to get started preparation, right away. Rule of thumb here, is that it is safe to plant after Palm Sunday.
Valentine's Day - Graphics for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster
Comments for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster : CoolMyspaceComments.com
Hope you and your little hearts have a wonderful weekend.
KEH~ Takes 2 years after roundup for the ground to be considered organic again. Here's Ortho's recommendations.
“Ornamentals and flowers may be planted or seeded 1 day after applying Roundup. Edible crops listed on the [product] label may be planted from transplant or seed after 3 days. If a crop is not listed on the label, wait 30 days before planting. (Note: Wait 30 days for tomato transplants).”
Though 2 years is the rule of thumb, wiki has studies that say 1-3 years depending on latitude with northern areas like Canada takimg 3 years.
{{Gary}} lol
Thanks OGal:) Hope you have a good one too..
MNTornado~ That was pretty crazy. There was a hurricane in the gulf area that blew some over & maybe another that pushed parked train cars for miles. But yeah~ winter storm.. outta the norm.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance Ex-Freddy (1003 hPa) located near 17.9S 84.3E is reported as moving west-northwest at 6 knots.
---
Freddy finding warmer waters (28-29C)..
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TEN-F
9:00 AM FST February 14 2009
=================================
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance Ten-F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 174.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on Multispectral infrared/visible with animation. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.
System lies to the north of a 250 HPA trough under a diffluence region with low level circulation center difficult to locate. Convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours, However organization remains disorganized. T.D. TEN-F is steered by low level northeasterlies into an area of moderate shear.
Global models (UK/EC/GFS] has picked up the system and moves it southwest with little intensification
POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
ImageChef.com Poetry Blender
Comments - Graphics - Layouts - Photobucket
Valentine's Day - Graphics for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster
Comments for Myspace, Hi5, Friendster : CoolMyspaceComments.com
Oh yes, I have 2 ripen Tomatoes from my vines.. I am going to eat one tonight! (I took them off yesterday so a critter doesn't get to them before I do!)
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1004 hPa) located near 18.4S 80.8E is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
---
happy Valentine's day
A table set for two, flowers, candle light, soft music playing in the background, a glass of wine and someone special to enjoy it with. Wishing you a Very Happy Valentines.
Clothes Optional (ya didn't expect me to be totally serious did ya.) *S*
My first choice was "Love the one your with" but ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, *LOL*
In My Life - The Beatles
System lies to the north of a 250 HPA anticyclonic circulation and under an upper trough. Deep convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours to the north of the exposed low level circulation center. Associated cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. TD Ten-F is being steered by east to northeast deep layer mean winds. A northwesterly surge associated with a convergence zone lies to the north. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air entrainment from the south. CIMMS indicates 20 knot environmental shear over the system. However, on its forecast track TD TEN-F is expected to move into an area of low shear.
Global models (UK/EC/GFS] has picked up the system and gradually moves it west then southwest with slight intensification
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
Jan global numbers are coming out.
No wunder Maine got a record..
In the end January was the 7 warmest globally when considering both land & sea.
Here's NOAA's the world~ jan in review.
Here's NASA's by the numbers totaled review.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE
424 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MELBOURNE...
THE WARMTH RADIATING FROM LOVING COUPLES IN THE MELBOURNE AREA
THIS VALENTINES DAY PUSHED THE TEMPERATURE TO A NEW RECORD HIGH OF
87 DEGREES.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THIS DATE WAS 86 SET IN 1962.
$$
DIETZMANN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE
422 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2009
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR VERO BEACH...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY WAS 87 DEGREES AT VERO BEACH. THIS BREAKS
THE OLD RECORDFOR THIS DATE OF 86 SET IN 1965.
$$
FXD
looks like Daytona ser a new high on the 12th too..
Come on rain..
Fire~ County : ORANGE
Location : NARCOOSSEE RD x[BOGGY CREEK RD] [ORLANDO]
Remarks : NARCOOSSE BEING SHUT DOWN FOR FIRE JUMP~!
I have been waiting for a break in the action to get just some just pretty pics up, well here we go!
A whole series of views around the GOM, algae and sediments from Earth Snapshot Today's Sat Pics O' The Day.
Algal Bloom Along Florida Coast
A large algal bloom blankets the west coast of Florida, USA, from Waccasassa Bay (North) to the Florida Keys (South). The east coast, on the other hand, is relatively algae-free.
When the full image is opened, particularly intense, dark green blooms are visible in the various bays, inlets and rivers along the coastline. To the South, near the Everglades and the Keys, light tan sediments can be seen.
Algae Makes Currents off Mexican Coast Visible
This stretch of the Mexican coast along the Gulf of Mexico in the states of Campeche (northeast) and Yucatan (southwest), is experiencing a phytoplankton and algal bloom.
This area had previously been observed using an image from late November, in which there was a similar amount of phytoplankton present. (Please click here to compare the images).
The algae is particularly concentrated and bright green in the Términos Lagoon. Some sediments are present along the coastline just west of the lagoon.
Further north, upon opening the full image, some interesting wave patterns can be seen, traced in the algae. The algae makes it possible to observe the water currents, usually invisible to the naked eye.
Algal Bloom Showing Currents off Texas, Louisiana Coastline
An algal bloom is present along this stretch of coastline from Texas (southwest) to Louisiana (northeast), USA. The greenish swirls in the Gulf of Mexico make it possible to see the water currents, not usually visible in non-radar images.
Several bays and lakes by the shoreline are also filled with algae and sediments, including Galveston Bay and Trinity Bay in Texas (center), Sabine Lake (right) on the border of the two states, and the brackish Calcasieu Lake (far right) in Louisiana.
The city of Houston is also visible just northwest of the two bays in Texas.
Farther inland, Lake Livingston, a man-made reservoir located in the East Texas Piney Woods, can be seen at the top. Its waters are dark blue and free of algae.
Sediments in the Mississippi River Delta
The city of New Orleans is located in the Mississippi River Delta in southeastern Louisiana, USA. It was built on the shores of Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, which runs through the city. A bridge, the Lake Pontchartrain causeway, is visible across the center of the lake.
Lake Pontchartrain is flanked by Lake Maurepas (left) and Lake Borgne (right). Lake Maurepas appears dark brown due to sediments, which are particularly visible towards its southern shore. The other two lakes are more green in color, due to algae growth.
The thick tan-colored bands reaching to the East from the left side of the image are agricultural areas and canals built along the banks of the Mississippi River (above) and along various bayous.
The Mississippi River continues east, through New Orleans, then bends south, and finally southeast. The area where the river meets the Gulf of Mexico is called the Bird’s Foot Delta, the newest section of the evolving Mississippi River Delta.
Here, the main branch of the Mississippi River splits into three different directions at its mouth: Southwest Pass (west), Pass A Loutre (east) and South Pass (centre). The location of this split is known as the Head of Passes.
The waters of the Mississippi River are golden brown from sediments, which are carried eastward and flow into the Bird’s Foot Delta and the Gulf of Mexico. This entire area appears light brown and green, as a mix of sediments and algae is present.
.. And just for good measure one from MODIS Rapid Response System also:
2009/043 - 02/12 at 18 :40 UTC
The Bahamas Satellite: Aqua
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2130z 15FEB)
============================================
An area of convection (93P/10F) located at 17.2S 171.5E or 340 NM west of Fiji. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates significantly improved consolidation over the past 6 hours with covective banding wrapping into a defined low level circulation center. A 1850z SSMI image showed strong banding over the northern semi-circle with weaker, formative banding over the southeast quadrant, and a somewhat elongated low level circulation center. A 1833z Quikscat image also shows a stronger, but elongated, low level circulation center with 25-30 knot unflagged winds near the center. The upper level environment has improved considerably with the 1800z streamline analysis indicating a developing anticyclone over the low level circulation center and enhanced poleward outflow caused by a shift in the upper level trough/low northwest of the system. Animated water vapor imagery reflects this improvement with expanding poleward outflow evident over the southern semi-circle. Sea surface temperatures is also favorable for further development.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Glitter Graphics - GlitterLive.com
Loving living more coastal...a real different feel.
It seem's the Game is afoot Skyepony..!
Its a great competition and fun for all involved.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number ONE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
12:00 PM FST February 16 2009
==================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression TEN-F (1001 hPa) located at 17.9S 169.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 35 knots within 60 to 180 NM of the center in the northeastern quadrant and 60 to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/enhance infrared radar with animation and latest Quikscat and microwave passes.
The low level circulation center is exposed with deep ocnvection confined to the north and east. Spiral bands becoming organized and trying to wrap around the center with convective tops cooling in the past 6 hours. TD TEN-F lies along the northern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation under 15-20 knot shear. Outflow is good to north and fair to the east, but restricted elsewhere.
Dvorak analysis based on wrap of 0.3 on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=PT=2.0 FT=2.0
Thus T2.0/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS
An upper short wave trough is approaching from he west which may enhance development. CIMSS indicates increasing shear to the west of the system. TD TEN-F is expected to be steered weswards under the influence of low level easterlies. Sea surface temperature around the area is 29C. Global models agree on a westward track and then southwest with little intensification.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
The Krewe of Barkus rolls out BatMutt:
The Bark Night Link
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number THREE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-F
0:00 AM FST February 17 2009
==================================
Special Weather Advisory - Vanuatu
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots in the sector 30 to 120 NM of the center in the northeast quadrant and 30 to 180 NM of the center in the southeast quadrant. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral/infrared imagery with animation, recent microwave pass and peripheral surface observations.
TD TEN-F lies along the northern periphery of an upper anticyclonic circulation. Outflow is good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere.
Dvorak analysis based on a wrap of 0.35 on LOG10 Spiral yields DT=2.0, MET=1.5 FT is based on MT.
Thus T1.5/2.0/D0.5/ 24 HRS
An upper shortwave trough is currently influencing TD 10F but a long wave trough moving off Australia is going to bring increasing shear as TD TEN-F moves closer to New Caledonia. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass is expected to weaken the system further. TEN-F is expected to be steered southwest as a middle level ridge develops to the southesat. Sea Surface Temperatures is around 28C. Global models agree on a southwest movement with no intensification.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
for Flash Flooding and Locally Damaging Winds
For people in the western Pilbara, including Karratha and surrounding areas,
Onslow and Exmouth, and the far northern Gascoyne.
10:00 pm WDT on Monday 16 February 2009
A low near the west Pilbara coast is expected to cause heavy rain that could
result in flash flooding. Flood Warnings are current for the Lyndon-Minilya
Rivers and Gascoyne River Catchment, Onslow Coastal Streams, Ashburton River and
Pilbara coastal streams, please refer to the latest warnings for further
details. There is also the risk of thunderstorms that may result in locally
damaging winds to 50-55 knots.
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