Puerto Rico and Eastern Caribbean Blog #2

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 8:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

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Second blog for daily weather in PR and Eastern Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A TUTT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TROP ATLC ACROSS
THE CARIB MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS LESLIE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING
IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND SUN. NOTE THAT GFS MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. MODELS INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING. MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT JSJ THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIG IMPACTS TO AIRCRAT OPERATIONS AT
JSJ.



&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS PROPAGATING FROM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK FRI. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW CWF CARRIES SEAS
UP TO 6 FT HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF SEP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DRIEST
ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF PR AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH DOMINATES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH SEP 15TH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 81 81 81 / 0 0 0 0

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82. Tropicsweatherpr
11:48 AM GMT on October 13, 2012



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
713 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL WAS MOVING NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR
OR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST NHC TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING
VERY NEAR OR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAFAEL IS STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND
IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES. THIS MEANS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK COULD STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM EAST SOUTHEAST TO WEST NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND OVER PUERTO RICO SUNDAY...AS RAFAEL BEGINS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH SECONDARY IMPACTS BEING INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS...RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SURF.

ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IN INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...AS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EARLY RAINFALL
ESTIMATE FOR THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE...THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. ALSO...GIVEN THE
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN BANDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND AN EARLY ESTIMATE FOR THESE AREAS IS 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 80 80 80 30
STT 87 79 88 80 / 80 80 80 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
81. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2012
Tropicsweatherpr has created a new entry.
80. Tropicsweatherpr
11:05 AM GMT on October 02, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER AND MID LEVELS...A LOW REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS FORCED
BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS...BUT THEY RESUME BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IS PEPPERED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BROKEN THROUGH THE 50 KFT
LEVEL. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY EAST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PUERTO RICO HAS SEEN SOME RAIN...WITH AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH
SEEN IN NAGUABO SINCE MIDNIGHT. MAJOR MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OR THE INTENSITY OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR
THAT IS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT NOSING IN FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THE MODELS DO
REFLECT A DECREASE IN 1000-850 MB THICKNESS LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INTERESTINGLY...HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM5 BRINGS IN
MUCH DRIER AIR...IT ALSO IS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWING MANY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE TEMPERED THE PREVIOUS VERY DRY FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD WITH THIS MODEL IN LIGHT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY...BUT KEPT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RELATIVELY DRY TO ACCOMMODATE THE
BRIEF DECREASE IN MOISTURE. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE TO SUPPRESS
THE APPROACHING WAVES FROM THE EAST. WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO RETREAT FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES WEST AND TILTS NORTH-SOUTH OVER
THE MONA CHANNEL...FLOW AT THE SURFACE BECOMES QUITE SOUTHERLY AND SHOWERS
SHOULD AGAIN EBB ON THE NORTH COAST. BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE NORTH COAST...AND MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE ISLANDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

THE CURRENT GFS FROM 02/00Z HAS THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC...NOW APPROACHING 40 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...RE-CURVING
ON WEDNESDAY AND JOINING ON FRIDAY THE MASSIVE LOW THAT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE USVI/BVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
THE VICINITY OF TJBQ..TJPS...AND TJSJ. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 02/13Z...MAINLY EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SOME SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
NADINE MAINTAIN 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS IN OPEN WATERS AROUND THE ISLANDS
TROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 50 50 20 50
STT 89 79 89 79 / 60 30 20 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
79. Tropicsweatherpr
7:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST...OVER THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE VICINITY OF PONCE...AND LATER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCE BY
THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH IS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 1.10 INCHES AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB AT 315K.
IF THIS VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

THE EAST WIND FLOW WHICH IS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME...IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TRJMZ..AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 60 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 60 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
78. Tropicsweatherpr
7:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

PRC013-027-039-065-073-141-012200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0365.121001T1858Z-121001T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-HATILLO PR-JAYUYA PR-UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-CAMUY PR-
258 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...HATILLO...JAYUYA...UTUADO...ARECIBO AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 258 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 600 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6650 1819 6658 1826 6680 1831 6683
1834 6683 1835 6685 1842 6689 1849 6684

$$

AAS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
77. Tropicsweatherpr
6:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

PRC011-081-083-093-097-099-131-012145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0364.121001T1849Z-121001T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
MAYAGUEZ PR-
249 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS AND
MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 249 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 545 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6703 1826 6686 1816 6690 1825 6710
1826 6720 1833 6711

$$

AAS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
76. Tropicsweatherpr
10:39 AM GMT on October 01, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIP FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...THEN RETROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK BEFORE FILLING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TUTT INDUCED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST... A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AGAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WELL AS WEATHER RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH
DAY.

WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO REGION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL THEN TRANSPORT
THIS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER DAYTIME CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS .

THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK... AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN ISOLATED SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND TOO A LESSER DEGREE
OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROF JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SPREAD
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK TIL 01/22Z WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS TIST AND TISX AFT 01/16Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR PSBL AND MOV ONSHORE IN ERN PR AFT 02/00Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP IN WRN PR AFT 01/17Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR AT
TJMZ. LLVL WINDS BCMG EAST 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE
SIXTH DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 2.13 INCHES. THE DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1940 WITH 1.49 INCHES. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES...TYING
SEPTEMBER 1995. AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER
2012 ENDED AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 79 / 20 60 50 50
STT 88 80 89 79 / 30 60 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
75. Tropicsweatherpr
6:47 PM GMT on September 30, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

PRC013-065-141-302130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0363.120930T1836Z-120930T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-UTUADO PR-ARECIBO PR-
236 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...UTUADO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 232 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS OF SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS...RIVERS...AND POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6680 1846 6661 1829 6662 1823 6665
1827 6679

$$

BCS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
74. Tropicsweatherpr
6:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

PRC027-081-302000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0362.120930T1804Z-120930T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-CAMUY PR-
204 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES AND CAMUY

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 203 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 400 PM AST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6683 1825 6683 1826 6689 1846 6690

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
73. Tropicsweatherpr
10:40 AM GMT on September 30, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIP FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...THEN RETROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FURTHER EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 37 WEST IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHOULD
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHORT
LIVED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNDER THE CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND HOT CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA...LOCAL WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
OF SO WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIATED WELL AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCAL AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING
PASSING SHOWERS IN SOME COASTAL AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN SIGHT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX. AFT 30/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NW PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 30/21Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT.

&&

CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2012 AT THE SJU LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WILL END AS THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. SEPTEMBER 2012 HAS NOW
MOVED INTO FIRST PLACE WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
SO FAR. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
IN THE LOW 90S WHICH COULD CHALLENGE TODAYS RECORD OF 94 DEGREES. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEPTEMBER 2012 WILL END AS AS THE SECOND DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN ST. THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN IF ANY IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
72. Tropicsweatherpr
7:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A TROUGH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WAS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO. AS 2 PM...MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET
PER LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING...IS PROMOTING THIS HOT TEMPERATURES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BEFORE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFT WEST...AND A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION.

IN TERM OF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...A DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW...LIMITING
EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. FOR
TUESDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BRING BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO WX. WINDS MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEP 2012 WILL END AS THE WARMEST AND ONE OF THE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD FOR A LOT OF PLACES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS AND MIGHT SUPPORT FIRE. RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WHILE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ERODES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH VALUES. WINDS
WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST AT 15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE MON AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGS AS
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 89 / 0 20 10 20
STT 83 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
71. Tropicsweatherpr
3:46 PM GMT on September 29, 2012
.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...SEP 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT IT CAN BE
SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE TOP THREE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
70. Tropicsweatherpr
10:37 AM GMT on September 29, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION...WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER QUICK
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE L/LVL ESE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TIL 29/15Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJPS FM TIME TO TIME. AFTN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND
NORTH WESTERN PR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCR AND PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 29/17 AND 29/21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 50 0 20 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 30 20 20 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
69. Tropicsweatherpr
8:08 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC027-071-115-282230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0361.120928T1935Z-120928T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
335 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 334 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS IN CENTRAL QUEBRADILLAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6684 1837 6682 1840 6703 1850 6707

$$

SNELL
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
68. Tropicsweatherpr
7:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL MOVE WEST NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO WITH OVER THREE INCHES PER HOUR REPORTED IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF LARES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY...MID NEXT WEEK. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJBQ...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE. SHRA/TSRA ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR....NORTHERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 0 50 0 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
67. Tropicsweatherpr
7:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC027-081-115-131-282100-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120928T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
324 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM AST FOR
QUEBRADILLAS...CAMUY...SAN SEBASTIAN AND LARES MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 316 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GUAJATACA RIVER BASIN IN THE WARNED
AREA. AT 3:20 PM AST THE RIVER GAGE ON THE GUAJATACA AT LARES WAS
REGISTERING 16.24 FEET WHICH RAISES THE RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS IN
LARES AND FLOODS HOMES IN BARRIO SEBORUQUILLO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND BEFORE YOUR ESCAPE ROUTE IS CUT OFF. THIS HAS
BEEN A VERY LARGE STORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6699 1839 6688 1830 6684 1827 6692

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
66. Tropicsweatherpr
6:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

PRC081-131-141-282030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0360.120928T1833Z-120928T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LARES PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
233 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LARES...UTUADO AND SAN SEBASTIAN

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 230 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 430 PM AST. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6699 1839 6700 1833 6685 1830 6678
1821 6686

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
65. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOTED THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION...WILL INDUCE A FEW MORE DAYS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.

AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER...MORE STABLE AND "WARMER" AIR MASS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER QUICK
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE L/LVL ESE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TIL 28/15Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJPS FM TIME TO TIME. AFTN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND
NORTH WESTERN PR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCR AND PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 28/17 AND 28/21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 0 50 0
STT 86 79 85 79 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
64. Tropicsweatherpr
1:34 AM GMT on September 28, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR/WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TSRA LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF KJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST 5-10 KT FRI EXCEPT WESTERLY AT KJMZ.
/GREGORIA

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH THE 12Z JSJ
SOUNDING INDICATING A PWAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING PASSING
SHOWERS. REPORTED ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR INDICATE NEAR 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURABO AND VILLALBA WITH URBAN FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS EARLIER.

THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME BEING THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING AT THE UPPER LEVELS..WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...

THE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS FOR SEAS RANGING FROM NEAR
3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SEAS FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ARE FORECAST
THEN INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 0 50
STT 79 86 79 85 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
63. Tropicsweatherpr
9:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
438 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012


.DISCUSSION...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH THE 12Z JSJ
SOUNDING INDICATING A PWAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING PASSING
SHOWERS. REPORTED ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR INDICATE NEAR 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURABO AND VILLALBA WITH URBAN FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS EARLIER.

THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME BEING THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING AT THE UPPER LEVELS..WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...

THE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS FOR SEAS RANGING FROM NEAR
3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SEAS FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ARE FORECAST
THEN INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 0 50
STT 79 86 79 85 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
62. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on September 27, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
608 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED TWO WEAK TUTT LOWS...
ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OVER CUBA AND ANOTHER ONE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO FILLED RAPIDLY
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOTED THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

A VERY WEAK TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER ONE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL YIELD A
FEW MORE DAYS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH PART OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTH COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. AN OVERALL
DRIER...MORE STABLE AND "WARMER" AIR MASS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE LLVL NELY FLOW MAY
AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ FM TIME TO TIME. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH AND WESTERN
PR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS BTWN 27/17 AND 27/21Z. EVENING
TJSJ RAOB SHOWED MAINLY NE WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS BLW 20 KFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 60 30 30 0
STT 86 79 86 79 / 50 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
61. Tropicsweatherpr
8:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL YIELD A FEW MORE DAYS OF
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONCENTRATING OVER THE SOUTH PART OF PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE NORTH COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE
AND "WARMER" AIR MASS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
60. Tropicsweatherpr
6:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC023-067-093-097-121-125-153-262100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0359.120926T1800Z-120926T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 500 PM AST. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RIVER
RISES AND FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6687 1805 6692 1808 6721 1814 6719
1817 6720 1820 6717 1823 6718 1825 6718

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
59. Tropicsweatherpr
5:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC059-075-111-113-261945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0358.120926T1648Z-120926T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS AND PONCE

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 1245 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 345 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1811 6678 1812 6675 1811 6673 1813 6671
1813 6668 1815 6665 1815 6653 1798 6651
1797 6677 1799 6677 1797 6678 1797 6682

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
58. Tropicsweatherpr
10:55 AM GMT on September 26, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM HAITI SWD TO PANAMA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WEST WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT WILL START TO MIGRATE WEST AS IT YIELDS TO
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL YIELD SVRL DAYS OF ACTIVE WX THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH. BEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE THU AND FRI WHEN THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKEST.
TODAY AND THU CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE IN THE SOUTH BUT ON FRI
STEERING FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH COAST.

ON SAT...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SFC LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
RESULT IN A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.
H85 FCST FIELDS FROM GFES SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LIFT ONE
AIMED AT JAMAICA AND ANOTHER ONE INTO THE FAR ERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTION WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE MONA CHANNEL
SAT MORNING AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ACTIVE WX RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
EXCESSIVE.

DEEP MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE AREA SUN WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA AND IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE LLVL NELY FLOW
MAY AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ FROM TIME TO TIME UNTIL 26/15Z. AFTER
26/16Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING THE AREAS AROUND TJMZ
AND POSSIBLY TJPS. TJSJ 26/00 SOUNDING SHOWED MAINLY NE WINDS AT 15
KTS OR LESS BLW 25 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ACTIVE WX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE SAT WHICH MAY REQUIRE SMWS.


&&

.CLIMATE...RELATIVELY COOL NEXT 3-4 DAYS DUE TO BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN SEP NOT ENDING IN THE
WARMEST AND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD. ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN
SEEMS POSSIBLE AT SJU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SEP WHICH WOULD PUT
THE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND THE RECORD IS 1.49 INCHES. SO
WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 60 60 30
STT 87 79 86 79 / 50 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
57. Tropicsweatherpr
1:30 AM GMT on September 26, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
AND ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EXPECT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS GOOD
MOISTURE UPSTREAM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SINCE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS ANTICIPATING THIS HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO POP
GRIDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM NORTH AND SOUTH CONTINUE TO MERGE OVER
THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF HAITI AND
SECOND UPPER LOW IS VISIBLE ABOUT 750 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN. ONLY CHANGES TO FORECAST INVOLVE INCREASING HIGHS ON THE
NORTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW NOTED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE LLVL NELY FLOW MAY
AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ FROM TIME TO TIME. 26/00Z TJSJ RAOB
SHOWED MAINLY NE WINDS AT 15 KTS OR LESS BLW 25 KFT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
56. Tropicsweatherpr
8:18 PM GMT on September 25, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC023-059-067-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-252200 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0356.120925T2010Z-120925T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE
PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-CABO ROJO PR-
410 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...MARICAO...PENUE LAS...PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 405 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6721 1814 6718 1815 6709 1817 6707
1820 6696 1816 6683 1811 6675 1814 6658
1797 6656 1796 6676 1799 6677 1796 6679
1796 6686 1803 6689 1803 6695 1795 6698
1795 6705 1796 6706 1794 6709

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC023-059-067-079-093-111-113-121-125-153-252200 -
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0355.120925T2007Z-120925T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE
PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-CABO ROJO PR-405 PM AST
TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...LAJAS...MARICAO...PENUE LAS...PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 405 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6721 1814 6718 1815 6709 1817 6707
1820 6696 1816 6683 1811 6675 1814 6658
1797 6656 1796 6676 1799 6677 1796 6679
1796 6686 1803 6689 1803 6695 1795 6698
1795 6705 1796 6706 1794 6709

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
55. Tropicsweatherpr
7:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LOW EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALLOWING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL STILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHIFTING TOWARD CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...APPROACHING MID TO MOSTLY UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED...SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WILL EVENTUALLY CREATE A MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING SOME MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJMZ
AND POSSIBLY TJPS...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS AT 2K FT. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SOUTHERN...AND
WESTERN PR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 50 50 30 30
STT 80 88 79 87 / 50 50 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
54. Tropicsweatherpr
6:18 PM GMT on September 25, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

PRC011-083-097-117-252045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0354.120925T1753Z-120925T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-RINCON PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
153 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LAS MARIAS...RINCON AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 149 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN SMALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6694 1819 6704 1816 6713 1819 6717
1821 6717 1823 6718 1828 6720 1829 6724
1833 6725

$$

JJA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
53. Tropicsweatherpr
10:17 AM GMT on September 25, 2012
Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS
TOWARD THE HISPANIOLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND MAY INDUCE
URBAN FLOODING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHIFTING
TOWARD CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A
DRYING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL
CREATE A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...BRINGING UP SOME MOISTURE FROM
SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TODAY WITH PREDOMINANT CIGS
BKN040 DROPPING BELOW 3KFT IN TSRA ESPECIALLY AT JMZ. WINDS FROM THE
ENE AT 15G21KT XCPT FOR A NW WIND AROUND 10KT AT JMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET IN OPEN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND FALL AS WINDS DIMINISH. PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS
THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.81 INCHES SO FAR. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE ONE
OF THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR
HAS BEEN 85.1 DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS
SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST
MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH
EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.

AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.81 INCHES SO FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 60 50 50 30
STT 88 80 88 79 / 50 50 50 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
52. Tropicsweatherpr
7:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
TROUGH SITS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER WEDNESDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST RETREATS AND DISSIPATES.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVES
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHINESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY BUILDS
FROM THE EAST SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC CREATING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BRINGS UP SOME
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RESUMPTION
OF THE TRADE WINDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN FORMING AFTER 1 PM
AST AND BY 2:30 PM CELLS WERE SCATTERED IN A CHAIN FROM SAINT
THOMAS TO CEIBA AND FROM OROCOVIS TO CABO ROJO. THE STRONG HEATING
PROMISES TO ALLOW MORE SUCH CELLS TO FORM BEFORE SUNSET AND
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH 92 DEGREES...SO FAR...IN SAN JUAN. CHANGES
IN THE PATTERN WILL BE SMALL AND GRADUAL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
SLOWLY AND WINDS DECREASING AFTER TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE DRYING TREND ON FRIDAY THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE THAT
BRINGS MOIST FLOW TO THE AREA FROM SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD GENERATE
INCREASING SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NORTH COAST MAY
RECEIVE LITTLE OF THIS IF LINES DO NOT FORM TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE
COAST...DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC SHADOWING...BUT THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES SHOULD RECEIVE NEEDED MOISTURE. AFTER THE WEEKEND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES AGAIN AND FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ONLY
MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
TJPS...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS AT 2K FT. SHRA/TSRA ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PR. EXPECT ISOLD TOPS OF 45
TO 55 KFT OVER LAND TILL ARND 24/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HOLD NEAR 5 TO 6 FEET IN OPEN WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND FALL AS WINDS DIMINISH. NADINE IS ALMOST 2500 MILES
EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE ABOUT HALF OF THE SWELL TO BE SEEN
IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 90 79 88 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
51. Tropicsweatherpr
11:05 AM GMT on September 24, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TODAY.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF JMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ENE SFC WINDS 16G23KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET XCPT
FOR A WNW WIND AROUND 10 KT AT JMZ IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
50. Tropicsweatherpr
7:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THE SAME
TIME...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST PR FROM
24/16Z-24/22Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR
OR OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER
INTERIOR PR. LATEST 23/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET...BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 90 / 10 10 20 30
STT 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
49. Tropicsweatherpr
10:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ASSOCIATED LOWS THE FIRST AND DEEPER
NEAR 30N/60W AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH ITS AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO
RICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND
MONDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE SPOTTY
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE AT JBQ AND JMZ THIS AFTERNOON
BUT PROB TOO LOW TO HAVE EITHER A VCTS OR PROB30 GROUP.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES WITH NO SIG WX.
ONSHORE SFC WINDS 15G20KT DURING THE DAY BCMG L/V AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 0 10 10 20
STT 90 82 90 81 / 0 10 10 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
48. Tropicsweatherpr
2:51 AM GMT on September 23, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1031 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

.UPDATE...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
LAND. FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER CONTINUED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AND DEPICTED
UPPER LOW/TUTT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUED
TO RETROGRESS WESTWARD WHILE FILLING.

OVERALL LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THAT OF
MACM (ST MARTEEN)...TFFR (GUADELOUPE) AND BLENDED TPW ALL SUGGEST
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT SUFFICIENTLY HUMID CONDITIONS FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
REFLECTED THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS FOR NOW PENDING NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE AND DATA.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 23/16Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST PR FROM 23/16Z-23/22Z. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR VCNTY OR OVR TJMZ AND
TJBQ...WITH MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER INTERIOR PR. LATEST 23/00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE
SFC-100 KFT...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
47. Tropicsweatherpr
6:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
227 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE FA AND ANOTHER ONE JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FILLING. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE FILLING...OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. ONLY FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING LATER OVER
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE 1.50-2.00 INCHES FOR THE FORECAST PERIODS.
THESE PWAT VALUES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...
LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND MARGINAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION/PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

BY THE NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATED THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION...INDUCING A VERY DEEP MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER
23/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 79 91 82 / 20 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
46. Tropicsweatherpr
6:12 PM GMT on September 22, 2012
Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
148 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

PRC011-097-221945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0350.120922T1748Z-120922T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
148 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 144 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADVISORY AREA ARE PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ON ROADWAYS IN
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1820 6715 1823 6716 1830 6717 1827 6709
1826 6709 1819 6702 1818 6716

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
45. Tropicsweatherpr
3:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AROUND 30N60W WITH LOW
COUPLETS THE FIRST AND DEEPER LOW NEAR 30N/60W THE SECOND LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD WITH A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AXIS OF THE TUTT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...MIXED BAG OF FORECAST PARAMETERS TODAY...WE ARE
DRIER THAT WE HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DROPPING TO 1.6 INCHES...LESS LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH
HELICITY VALUES OF 1 TODAY COMPARED TO A -3 YESTERDAY. YOU WOULD
THINK THAT LOWER MOISTURE AND LESS SHEAR WOULD LEAVE A DRIER
FORECAST...I GUESS AREA WISE THAT WOULD BE CORRECT. THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT I BELIEVE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THE
INTRUSION OF SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT. FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED
ABOUT 600 FEET SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...ADD TO THAT AN SMALL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL VELOCITIES...MORE CAPE TO PLAY WITH (3924
J/KG) AND A NICE LIFTING INDEX OF -7.0. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LESS MOISTURE...THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A BIT MORE LIFT AND ENERGY SO WHERE THEY OCCUR
LOOK FOR SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND MAYBE A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A VERY ISOLATED BOOMER PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...MOSTLY
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COURNER OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT TO
STREAMERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE LESS SIDE OF THE U.S.V.I.
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EL YUNQUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND
TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
44. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 AM GMT on September 22, 2012
Good morning.Some wet times are ahead for the Caribbean as a series of waves and troughs will be around.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE ERN CARIB IS EXPECTED TO FILL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC IS FCST TO DROP ALONG 60W AND EXTEND A TROUGH
INTO OUR AREA TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AS INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. LATEST GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ALTHOUGH LOCAL
WRF AND HI-RES ARW AND NMM SHOW SIG LESS CVRG FOR TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YDAY. WHILE NO REPORTS OF SVR WX WERE RECEIVED YDAY I
STILL CAN`T RULED OUT SOME HAIL DUE TO FCST OF LOWER -20C HEIGHT
AND WBZ LEVELS AND PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. TUTT FILLS SUN AND
AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY SUN AND MON WITH ONLY SPOTTY
CONVECTION.

SECOND CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC DROPS ALONG 60W ON TUE
KEEPING UPPER TROUGHFINESS OVR OUR AREA WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TUE. MORE OF THE SAME WED AND THU WITH CUTOFF LOW WEAKENING WITH
TIME AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BY NEXT FRI.

AS ALL OF THIS OCCURS...MODELS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC BREAKING DOWN WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTERACTING WITH A BROAD
SFC LOW OVR THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NET RESULT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INVERTED SFC TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE ERN DOM REP AND PR TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN NEXT SUN SEP 30.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 22/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJSJ. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. WINDS FROM SURFACE TO 15KFT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH TODAY BUILDING TO 5 FT SUN IN NE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE.

&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS
THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH ONLY 0.31 INCHES SO FAR. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN 85.1
DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...SEPTEMBER 2012
CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD HOTTEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR...TYING
JUNE AND JULY 1980. THE HOTTEST MONTH EVER WAS JUNE 2012 WITH AN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.7 DEGREES.

AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY
RANKS AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 INCHES SO FAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 30 10 10 10
STT 90 80 91 80 / 20 10 10 10
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
43. Tropicsweatherpr
7:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2012
Good afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
LATER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED SEVERAL
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL..NORTH AND WEST PR THROUGH 21/22Z. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...
WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR. WINDS FM SFC TO 15KFT WILL BE
MAINLY FM THE E-SE BTW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 20 30 40 40
STT 79 90 80 91 / 20 20 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
42. Tropicsweatherpr
7:05 PM GMT on September 21, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

PRC003-011-081-083-097-099-117-131-141-212145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0348.120921T1842Z-120921T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-UTUADO PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
RINCON PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
242 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MOCA...UTUADO...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...
RINCON...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 239 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
AND MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 545 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6703 1838 6693 1832 6682 1830 6659
1819 6668 1821 6669 1825 6679 1823 6683
1819 6684 1821 6698 1815 6716 1829 6719
1830 6724 1837 6727 1841 6716 1839 6713
1844 6710 1845 6706

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

PRC039-054-091-101-145-212015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0347.120921T1815Z-120921T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
215 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 215 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 415 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6637 1830 6637 1826 6642 1825 6650
1818 6651 1818 6653 1824 6656 1830 6657
1832 6661 1835 6659 1839 6659 1843 6653
1849 6653 1847 6647 1850 6642

$$

ER
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
137 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

PRC007-021-045-047-051-105-135-137-143-212030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0346.120921T1737Z-120921T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COMERIO PR-COROZAL PR-NARANJITO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
AGUAS BUENAS PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
137 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COMERIO...COROZAL...NARANJITO...VEGA ALTA...AGUAS
BUENAS...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 130 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 430 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6613 1838 6612 1836 6614 1828 6614
1827 6610 1823 6609 1822 6614 1823 6617
1818 6623 1822 6627 1824 6627 1824 6630
1827 6633 1832 6636 1849 6634

$$

ER
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
41. Tropicsweatherpr
10:57 AM GMT on September 21, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF CUTOFF LOWS ONE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC AND
ANOTHER ONE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS WHILE FILLING/WEAKENING. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
NE ATLC WILL DROP SOUTHWEST AND EXTEND A TROUGH INTO OUR AREA MID
NEXT WEEK. RIDGE THEN EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVR THE AREA AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING PER
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON RADAR IMAGERY AND COLD CLOUD TOPS TO -50C ON
IR IMAGERY. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CARIB WILL RETROGRESS IN TANDEM WITH TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR
MARTINIQUE TO GIVE US AN ACTIVE DAY. DUE TO LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO
LEVELS AND LOWERING OF THE -20C HEIGHT SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS. THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE ON SAT FOR BETTER
TSTM CVRG THAN TODAY WITH TSTM ACTIVITY FCST TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS
NCNTRL/NWRN PR. TUTT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUN WITH MODELS
SHOWING SIG MID LEVEL DRYING BUT H5 COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND
-8C WILL BE OVERHEAD. SO WHILE THERE SHOULD BE LESS CVRG...TSTMS
COULD BE MORE VIGOROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN SOME HAIL.

TUTT FILLS/WEAKENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND EACH DAY TO GIVE US SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
ATLC BREAKING DOWN WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS FL/BAHAMAS AND
CNTRL CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH EPAC/SW CARIBBEAN MONSOON TROF
WITH DEEP MOISTURE FCST TO POOL ACROSS HISPANIONA...PR AND EAST
CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA. SO CONDITIONS RIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH/START OF OCT COULD TURN VERY WET.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 21/16Z...
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH SAT. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
NADINE WILL START ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS SUN WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5 FT IN NE SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2012 AT THE SAN JUAN AREA REMAINS AS THE DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 0.31 INCHES SO FAR. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN 85.1
DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/SAINT
CROIX...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS AS THE DRIEST AND SECOND DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 AND 1.38 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 20 30 30
STT 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
40. Tropicsweatherpr
2:51 AM GMT on September 21, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MOST OF WHICH WERE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH SOME BRIEFLY REACHING THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SHORES FROM
TIME TO TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE HOWEVER MINIMAL WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TUTT LOW JUST EAST
OF THE ISLAND OF MARTINIQUE. EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUED TO
INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW AND WILL ALSO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO APPROACHING FEATURES TO BRING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
39. Tropicsweatherpr
7:19 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INVADE OUR LOCAL REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER PENUELAS...GUAYANILLA AND SABANA GRANDE.
ALSO...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED SAINT
CROIX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE LOCALLY...WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST...OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN...WILL PROPAGATE WEST OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CONDITIONS AT
UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE WETTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 53 WEST
LONGITUDE...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES...PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LONG TERM
RANGE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHRA MAY BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PR BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR.
WINDS FM SFC TO 30KFT WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E-NE BTW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 30 40 20 30
STT 77 89 79 90 / 50 50 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
38. Tropicsweatherpr
7:13 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

PRC079-093-121-125-153-202030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0345.120920T1835Z-120920T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
235 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAJAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND YAUCO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 230 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP
RISES IN AREA STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6700 1819 6701 1820 6695 1813 6688
1800 6701 1806 6709

$$

FIGUEROA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
203 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

PRC001-059-111-113-141-153-202000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0344.120920T1803Z-120920T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
203 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...PENUELAS...PONCE...UTUADO...YAUCO AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 200 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP
RISES IN AREA STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1819 6668 1812 6662 1799 6683 1808 6688

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
37. Tropicsweatherpr
10:45 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Good morning. It appears that a fairly rainy period is instored for the islands on the NE Caribbean as waves and troughs move thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING TUTT AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY AND LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR
FRIDAY...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO BE
VERY WARM TO HOT...DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THE DAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MOIST OF SUNDAY...YIELDING
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN MARGINAL SATURDAY
BUT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY...SO EXPECT A BIT MORE ACTIVITY THEN. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...TUTT
FINALLY MOVES TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTION
LOCALLY BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS...EXPECT
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY. SOME SHRA MAY ALSO BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PR BTWN 20/17Z AND
20/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND
TJPS...WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR. WINDS FM SFC TO 25KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E-NE BTWN 10 AND 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WATERS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 89 79 89 80 / 40 50 50 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
36. Tropicsweatherpr
7:27 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

PRC003-011-099-117-192030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0342.120919T1838Z-120919T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MOCA PR-RINCON PR-AGUADA PR-
238 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MOCA...RINCON AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 235 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES MOVING TO THE WEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP RISES
IN AREA STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6706 1825 6708 1827 6720 1829 6720
1829 6723 1831 6725 1834 6727 1838 6724
1839 6724

$$

FIGUEROA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

PRC001-059-073-081-111-113-141-153-192115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0341.120919T1810Z-120919T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JAYUYA PR-LARES PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-UTUADO PR-
YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
210 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JAYUYA...LARES...PENUELAS...PONCE...U TUADO...YAUCO
AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

AT 125 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP
RISES IN AREA STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6665 1809 6663 1810 6679 1808 6685
1814 6686 1817 6684 1817 6686 1819 6687

$$

FIGUEROA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
131 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

PRC023-067-093-097-121-125-192030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0340.120919T1731Z-120919T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO
PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
131 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO
AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 125 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS SHARP
RISES IN AREA STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1820 6702 1820 6692 1815 6690 1815 6692
1806 6691 1804 6698 1807 6705 1806 6710
1801 6711 1799 6721 1802 6719 1804 6722
1817 6720 1820 6716 1823 6705

$$

FIGUEROA
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
35. Tropicsweatherpr
7:27 PM GMT on September 19, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE...WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. SJU-GFS 3KM AGL WIND
STREAMLINES SHOW WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WITH STREAMERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN
FOREST AND CONTINUING NORTHWEST TO SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ANOTHER
AREA AFFECTED WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN A
MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALSO...MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE SOME MORE...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BETWEEN DAY 5 THROUGH 8...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL COOL DOWN A
LITTLE BIT...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 19/22Z.
AFTER THAT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/17Z BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z. ALSO...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TKPK AND TNCM. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 50 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
34. Tropicsweatherpr
11:05 AM GMT on September 19, 2012
Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE AN APPROACHING
TUTT AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE VERY SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...
EXPECT THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEN...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT
DEEPER OVERALL BUT FA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TUTT. SO...AGAIN EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
OFFER LIMITED OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AS DYNAMICS
IMPROVE DUE TO LOCATION OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE
THE DRIEST OF THE WEEKEND DAYS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH
SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY...AS TUTT AXIS AND MOIST
SURGE MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU AT LEAST
19/16Z. AFT 19/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PR...CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLY
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 40 30 50 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 40 40 50
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
33. Tropicsweatherpr
2:17 AM GMT on September 19, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
DIMINISHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ONLY PASSING SHOWERS FROM THE
EAST REMAINED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EVEN THOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AFFECTING THE AREA
WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SINCE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS IN TERMS OF THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST AS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE IN THE LARGER SCALE AND IN THE LONG TERM.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334
32. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on September 18, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CUTT OFF LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINING FAVORABLE
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE TUTT MOVES FURTHER WEST AND LIKELY FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...SEVERAL UNDULATIONS IN THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE BRINGING A
SERIES OF SHRA/TSRA BANDS TO THE AREA. ONE IS JUST EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ONE HAS PASSED TISX...THE LATTER IS MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS NOW
THROUGH AT LEAST 19/04Z AT MOST TAF SITES...BUT ESPECIALLY ARND TJMZ
AND TKPK. LLVL WINDS ESE ARND 15 KT UP THROUGH 19 KFT AND CHANGING
LITTLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 90 / 50 50 30 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 60 60 40 40
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13334

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I am a tropical weather enthusiastic as I live on hurricane alley.