Incredible Issue Isaac? Time will tell...

By: WxGeekVA , 9:49 PM GMT on August 18, 2012

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Current Analysis:

As Gordon races to the northeast for a landfall at the Azores, and Helene weakens over Mexico, our next troublemaker appears on the scene. Invest 94L, a disturbance located in the MDR just west of the Cape Verde islands is showing signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving 94L a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. I would put those odds higher, at around 80% given the recent strides that it has made in organization over the last few hours. Lower level banding is appearing, and a center of circulation appears to have formed. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening of 94L, and it appears likely that it will be Isaac by Sunday night.


Current AVN floater loop of 94L (NOAA-SSD)
Click for other floater imagery.


Computer Models:

Most computer models show development of 94L into Isaac, and almost all of the models developing it show strengthening into a hurricane as it approaches the Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. However, the track is still of low confidence at this point. Some solutions show an early recurve north of the Antilles, while others such as the GFS show a later recurve which takes Isaac through the Caribbean, and then dangerously close to the East Coast. I favor a solution closer to the GFS, and just to the east of what it had at the 12Z run. Any approach to the East Coast is over a week out, and the forecast is of low confidence. However, a recurve between 80 and 65W is likely, and interests from Florida to Maine should keep a close eye on this system. My forecast is shown below:


Unofficial forecast track and intensity by WxGeekVA for 94L.(imageshack)

I'll be back with some sort of blog, either video or another like this in the next two days as the forecast becomes clearer.

WxGeekVA

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