NOAA's update to the Atlantic hurricane season forecast
In a press release this afternoon, NOAA has increased the number of predicted named storms, and increased their confidence in an above-average season from 65% to 85%.
The updated NOAA forecast is:
• 14 to 19 named storms
• 7 to 10 hurricanes
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes
According to NOAA, the long-term averages in a season are:
• 11 named storms
• 6 hurricanes
• 2 major hurricanes
Table 1. 2011 hurricane season forecasts from various organizations.
So far this season the Atlantic basin has seen 5 named storms: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily. This is already above average for the season to date; usually only 1 to 2 named storms have formed by now.
On a somewhat related note, it's been 1,056 days since a U.S. hurricane landfall: Hurricane Ike of 2008.