update Monday 23 Afternoon
Well, it appears those who were talking a big snow storm this week have backed off the snow, and their forecasts look as if they read my forecast I posted over the weekend. As I previously stated, Western MD and SW PA have the best chance for light snow this Friday. Everyone else in Central MD will see rain. Given the low temps for the evening Thursday into the weekend, there could be an occasional flake go by, but nothing more then that. The rest of the week will be similar to today with the weather breaking later Friday night and into the weekend.
Regarding snow the first of December, the models are doing what I figured they would do, wobble. Now it appears the temps wont be cold enough until the weekend (Dec. 5-6) but there is no precip then. The models still do show a large amount of precip mid-week (as I previously mentioned), so watching the temps and data will eventually give me a good idea of what is happening. I will not have too much confidence in my forecast of snow until the models come to some consensus (and I can see real-to-life trends). "If" it were to snow mid-week, given the current moisture levels, we would see accumulations of a foot or more. So it is something I am still watching.
update Sat. 21 morning
After reviewing the data I really don't see us having a snow event over Thanksgiving. Others are still sticking with a major snow storm along the East coast, but the temps aren't really there, for us at least. "If" there is to be any snow around Thanksgiving I could see it happening in Western MD and SW PA over the weekend, but for Central MD we will have some rain off and on Thursday through the weekend.
But, before you all jump for joy - I am seeing a snow potential; of course it is way too far out to be accurate, but the models are showing the potential for Dec 1 - 3. There is a good deal of moisture coming up from the Gulf and the temps will be much better for snow development. I will keep watching this development.
I even hate to mention the word, snow, not because I don't want to see it, but because I am not really sure we will see it, but some of the data is there to support us seeing it. What am I saying? A look at the model data for Thanksgiving and the following weekend does show the potential for snow for us. The air in Alaska is currently quite cold (low single digits in Anchorage right now). That cold air could make it's way down to us, combined with a low off the coast next Friday or Saturday, and there is the potential for snow.
Ok, here are my concerns: 1. it is way too far out to be predicting any kind of weather; 2. the model runs are not yet consistent; 3. the placement of the low off the coast (if it forms) will determine type of precip and amount
Here is why I am even mentioning this: 1. other weather outlets are talking about it; 2. a local weather blogger has been saying this would happen for the past couple weeks (I dismissed it, but now the data could be supporting it); 3. I want snow.
All in all, I am mentioning this only to keep it on all of our "radar screens". I am skeptical, but not completely against this prediction.
Updated: 9:01 PM GMT on November 23, 2009
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