MY 2012 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECAST:

By: ncforecaster , 6:00 AM GMT on May 31, 2012

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MY 2012 SEASONAL FORECAST:

Hey everyone,

As I have done since May of 2006, I am going to post my seasonal forecast for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones.

Unlike previous years, I have chosen not to go into great detail as to the specific methodology I used in order to determine the statistical numbers.

That being said, my 2012 seasonal forecast is based primarily upon my own projection that the current Neutral ENSO pattern will transition over to a weak El Nino by the the time we reach the climatilogical peak months of the hurricane season. I have also taken into consideration the anomalously cooler water temperatures currently present in the MDR region, as well as the typical atmospheric conditions that are associated with the warm phase of the AMO.

My very extensive statistical research into various climatological data also significantly influenced the figures I have listed below.

MY 2012 SEASONAL FORECAST:

a) Atlantic basin activity:

Named tropical storms = 11-13 (12)
Hurricanes = 4-6 (5)
Major hurricanes = 2-3 (2)

b) U.S. landfalls/strikes:

Named tropical storms = 3-5 (4)
Hurricanes = 1-2 (2)
Major hurricanes = 0-1 (1)

Note: These figures take into account the TS formations of both Alberto and Beryl, as well as the Pre-season landfall of TS Beryl on May 28.

The timing as to when, or even if, El Nino develops will have a very significant effect on just how active this particular North Atlantic hurricane season will be.

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3. ncforecaster
5:24 AM GMT on June 01, 2012
ENSO CYCLES and U.S. TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALLS (1995-2011):


1) El Nino H seasons: (5 Total)

1997 = 1 TS/1 H
2002 = 8 TS/1 H
2004 = 9 TS/6 H/3 MH (4,3,3)
2006 = 3 TS
2009 = 2 TS

Totals: 23 TS/8 H/3 MH (Averages = 4.6 TS/1.6 H/0.6 MH)

2) La Nina H seasons: (6 Total)

1995 = 5 TS/2 H/1 MH (3)
1998 = 7 TS/3 H
1999 = 5 TS/3 H/1 MH (3)
2007 = 4 TS/1 H
2010 = 4 TS
2011 = 2 TS/1 H

Totals: 27 TS/10 H/2 MH (Averages = 4.5 TS/1.7 H/0.33 MH)

3) Neutral H seasons: (6 Total)

1996 = 5 TS/2 H/1 MH (3)
2000 = 2 TS
2001 = 4 TS
2003 = 5 TS/2 H
2005 = 9 TS/6 H/4 MH (3,3,3,3)
2008 = 6 TS/3 H

Totals: 31 TS/13 H/5 MH (Averages = 5.2 TS/2.2 H/0.83 MH)

ALL STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD (1995-2011)

Totals: 81/31/10 (17 years) Averages 4.9/1.9/0.59

Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1372
2. ncforecaster
2:57 AM GMT on June 01, 2012
It is interesting to note the statistical averages for the most recent "warm phase" of the AMO (1995-2011). They are as follows:

ALL TROPICAL STORMS/HURRICANES/MAJOR HURRICANES (1995-2011):

LA NINA

1995 19/11/5 1998 14/10/3 1999 12/8/5 2007 15/6/2 2010 19/12/5 2011 19/7/4

Totals 98/54/24 (6 years) Averages 16.3/9/4

El NINO

1997 8/3/1 2002 12/4/2 2004 15/9/6 2006 10/5/2 2009 9/3/2

Totals 54/24/13 (5 years) Averages 10.8/4.8/2.6

NEUTRAL

1996 13/9/6 2000 15/8/3 2001 15/9/3
2003 16/7/3 2005 28/15/7 2008 16/8/5

Totals 103/56/27 (6 years) Averages 17.2/9.3/4.5

FIGURES FOR ALL SEASONS (1995-2011)

Totals 255/134/64 (17 seasons) Averages 15/7.9/3.8

Note: These figures are an update to the blog entry I posted last May.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1372
1. ncforecaster
6:14 AM GMT on May 31, 2012
For a complete compilation of the statistical data for all North Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes that developed during the month of "June"-for the period of 1851-2011-please see my previous blog entry. In it, you will also find a complete compilation of all "June" tropical storms and hurricanes that made a U.S. strike, as well.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 108 Comments: 1372

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