Warm and Wet Pattern Ahead ; No Snow in Sight

By: tropicfreak , 3:11 AM GMT on February 27, 2012

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Good evening all. As if circumstances couldn't be any crazier, mother nature has decided to mess around with us some more. After picking up anywhere from 3-6" across the metro Sunday, just 3 days later, we had highs in the 70s, and Thursday, we were under a moderate risk of severe weather, which is a rare occurrence around here. Highs that day topped out at 80! Quite a contrast from the 30s and snow just a few days earlier. Thankfully no one was hurt. A small tornado did touch down in Matthews County causing some damage, but there were no casualties. Also across southern metro, hail was anywhere between 1.0" and even up to 1.5" in diameter! Nobody was hurt from that either. Since then we've been dealing with a seasonably cool weekend, and a bit of a blustery one at times. We have indeed been thrown into a bit of a tailspin over the past few weeks, but it's not uncommon to have variations in our weather pattern this late in the winter season.

As the season begins to wind down, temperatures will remain seasonable or above average for much of this week. Throughout this week highs will be in the low to mid 60s, with the exception of Wednesday where we could top out at the 70° mark. There are a few chances of rain, and even thunderstorms as well. Wednesday there is a good bet of some showers and even thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but nonetheless, it should be monitored. Another rain chance will arrive early next weekend, and that will also bring rain with that. Past the 7 day forecast, even into the extended forecast, there are no signs of any wintry weather. We'll keep watching though. Though, after our snowstorm last weekend, I am pretty content with our winter now that we got our decent snow in. Bring on the thunderstorms and severe weather!

Summary of Last Weekend's Snowstorm

That storm was quite a pain in the butt to forecast, to say the least. Through at least 18z the night before, models were fairly consistent with dropping a good amount of snow over us. Suddenly on 00z, a few models such as the NAM completely shafted us leaving us snowless, however, I did not buy into the solution, knowing that the NAM hasn't performed very well in forecasting this storm, nor has the GFS which has dealt with many errors as well. Therefore, I stuck with my forecast of 4-7" for the metro. Around 9am Sunday morning, flurries and ice pellets began to fall across much of the metro area. I figured it would quickly changeover to all rain as forecasted. Much to my surprise, and pleasure, instead of changing to rain, it stayed all snow, at least for me, with sleet mixing in at times when precipitation fell lighter. With the temperatures above freezing though, it had a really tough time sticking, and never really began to accumulate until mid afternoon, when more steady, persistent snow fell. As that period ended, I picked up 0.5" of snow, though it was not over. As the low passed by, there was a lot of upper level energy, allowing a very heavy snow band to set up to our south. Around 6 pm, it moved into the metro area, and snowfall rates of 1-1.5" per hour continued for a good 2-3 hours. In that time period, I picked up an additional 3" of snow. It immediately began to accumulate to the roads, and that caught those who were traveling off guard. As a matter of fact, at the peak of the heavy snow, in just 1 1/2 hours, police had to respond to over 150 accidents! Shows how great us Richmonders can drive in the snow, right? After 8-9pm the snow began to taper down a bit, though it still came down at a moderate clip. By midnight, it tapered to light snow and ended at 3 am. All in all, I picked up 4.4" from that storm, the airport picked up 3.9". I believe I did pretty well with my snowfall accumulations. The few days following the snowstorm, the snow was gone in a hurry due to the warm temperatures and the high sun angle.

Have a great week!

TF

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4. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:46 PM GMT on November 25, 2012
tropicfreak has created a new entry.
2. tropicfreak
6:21 PM GMT on March 11, 2012
Hey pumps! Long time no see bud! Did winter even exist this year?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1. pumps
9:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Glad to see that you are still doing
your "thing"....Why the Web Master put
the Blogs at the bottom of this site,
I will never know....Pumps
Member Since: January 27, 2006 Posts: 105 Comments: 313

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About tropicfreak

Live in Richmond VA. I'm a recent high school graduate who is looking to pursue a career in meteorology. Winter storms and the tropics fascinate me.

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