Tropical Weather Headquarters

Ophelia, Philippe...Taste of Fall For The South!

Posted by: weatherguy03, 2:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2011

Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
7-9 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes

Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.

2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
15 Named Storms
3 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

I continue to watch Ophelia and Philippe today out in the tropics. Neither are a threat to the U.S.. Ophelia will pass to the East of Bermuda Saturday as a Hurricane. Ophelia should pass far enough East where Bermuda will only have a threat for some Tropical Storm conditions across the Island. After that Ophelia will make a move towards Eastern New Foundland by Sunday nite/Monday, possibly bringing Tropical Storm conditions across this area.
Philippe will try and hang on through the weekend as shear will continue to affect him. Philippe could end up dissipating this weekend or barely hang on as he moves off to the WNW. Philippe is no threat to land at this time. The tropics should remain quiet, outside of our two current systems, for the next 7 to 10 days.
Fall weather will invade much of the Eastern U.S and Deep South this weekend through early next week! Get ready for some great fall weather to kick off October! For a more in-depth view of the tropics and the current weather please view the video above.

Ophelia Model Runs:

Ophelia Satellite View:

Ophelia Official Forecast Track NHC:

Philippe Model Runs:

Philippe Satellite View:

TS Philippe Official Forecast NHC:

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Categories: Hurricane Tropics

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1. seflagamma 2:20 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
FIRST! Hi Bob, Thanks for the update... so nothing yet in the Caribbean. Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 285 Comments: 40479

2. weatherguy03 2:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
Nothing. The GFS shows a system about 14 days out! The MJO needs to come back. The forecast is for the MJO to come back by the middle of October, until then don't expect much. Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680

3. Levi32 2:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2011
The models have been extremely poor with the timing of the MJO for the last few weeks. Thanks Bob. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

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