U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 170711 
Storm Prediction Center ac 170710 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0210 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014 

Valid 191200z - 201200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

localized severe storms are possible Saturday morning into early 
afternoon over central and South Florida. 

A compact shortwave trough centered in vicinity of northern Florida should gradually 
move eastward off the S Atlantic coast. Upstream in the southern stream...a 
shortwave trough should dampen in the southwestern Continental U.S./Northwestern Mexico. 

..cntrl/southern Florida... 
Large spread noted in model guidance during d2 persists into d3. 
However...the consensus trend has been for a slower eastward progression 
of the shortwave trough...suggesting that at least a marginal severe 
risk may linger beyond 12z/Sat especially along the East Coast. 
Although low/mid-level kinematic fields should be strongest on Sat 
morning /magnitude of which varies greatly among guidance/...flow 
should become veered and unidirectional with time. This infers that 
overall convective coverage will diminish relative to late d2. 

..trans-Pecos/Rio Grande Valley of West Texas... 
A belt of moderate middle/high-level swlys will overspread the region 
downstream of the dampening shortwave trough. An increase in 
low-level moisture up the Rio Grande /consisting of middle 40s to 
lower 50s surface dew points/ should aid in afternoon convection 
forming over higher terrain. The combination of lapse 
rates/shear/buoyancy may aid in a few locally strong storms...but 
not sufficiently favorable to warrant severe probabilities at this time. 

.Grams.. 04/17/2014