U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 250710 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 250708 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0208 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014 


Valid 271200z - 281200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across 
the Great Lakes on Monday morning and from the southern Great Plains 
to the Midwest on Monday night. 


... 
Consensus of guidance suggests a broad middle-level trough over the northern 
Great Plains should undergo at least minor amplification late in the 
period over the north-central Continental U.S. As it phases with weaker southern-stream 
disturbances. An attendant cold front should stretch from the central 
Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains by early Tuesday. Guidance depicts 
above-average spread in the evolution of the trough and cold front. 


..Great Lakes to southern Great Plains... 
Despite lower-than-average confidence in the positioning/amplitude 
of synoptic features...overall setup does not appear particularly 
conducive to severe storms. Moisture return ahead of the front will 
be modest and consist of a modified cp air mass with Montana air 
currently relegated to the Caribbean. Orientation of the trough and 
front will favor predominately southwesterly flow with an eml plume over the 
warm sector...likely maintaining substantial inhibition for 
surface-based storms. 


Elevated convective clusters should be ongoing within a low-level 
warm air advection regime across the Great Lakes on Monday morning. More widespread 
convection with embedded thunderstorms is anticipated Monday night as the 
trough amplifies and larger height falls overspread the front. Much 
of the convective development will probably be rooted by elevated 
parcels near the frontal zone. Small hail should be anticipated with 
initial updrafts given the remnant eml...but expected weak buoyancy 
will preclude probabilities for a marginal severe risk this outlook. 


.Grams.. 10/25/2014