U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 130704 
Storm Prediction Center ac 130703 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0203 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015 

Valid 151200z - 161200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the 
southwestern United States and over southern Florida. Shallow 
convection will develop over the Great Lakes which may generate a 
few lightning strikes. 

..swrn u... 

Upper low is expected to shift inland over Southern California during the day3 
period. Weak upward vertical velocity ahead of this feature should enhance middle-level 
saturation such that weak convection is expected...especially during 
the afternoon/evening...from the Sierra Nevada range into western nm. 
Steep lapse rates will likely contribute to sufficient buoyancy for 
a few robust updrafts penetrating levels necessary for lightning 

A rogue lightning strike or two may accompany weak convection along 
surging front across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. 
Strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in this 
development but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable and 
activity should prove quite sparse. 

..South Florida... 

Convection should be displaced south across the Florida Peninsula toward 
The Straits during the day3 period. Even so...an isolated storm can 
not be ruled out along diurnally driven sea breeze and convergent 

..Great Lakes... 

Lowering heights across the Great Lakes will allow much colder air 
to spread southeastward across the warmer waters during the day3 period. 
Forecast surface-3km lapse rates will steepen significantly and 
convection will likely develop within a favorable regime for lake 
bands. Will not introduce thunderstorms to this region due to the likely 
sparse nature of lightning...but a few thunderstorms should evolve over the 
warmer waters Thursday. 

.Darrow.. 10/13/2015