- Day Three
acus03 kwns 130704
Storm Prediction Center ac 130703
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015
Valid 151200z - 161200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southwestern United States and over southern Florida. Shallow
convection will develop over the Great Lakes which may generate a
few lightning strikes.
Upper low is expected to shift inland over Southern California during the day3
period. Weak upward vertical velocity ahead of this feature should enhance middle-level
saturation such that weak convection is expected...especially during
the afternoon/evening...from the Sierra Nevada range into western nm.
Steep lapse rates will likely contribute to sufficient buoyancy for
a few robust updrafts penetrating levels necessary for lightning
A rogue lightning strike or two may accompany weak convection along
surging front across the southern High Plains Thursday afternoon/evening.
Strong boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in this
development but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable and
activity should prove quite sparse.
Convection should be displaced south across the Florida Peninsula toward
The Straits during the day3 period. Even so...an isolated storm can
not be ruled out along diurnally driven sea breeze and convergent
Lowering heights across the Great Lakes will allow much colder air
to spread southeastward across the warmer waters during the day3 period.
Forecast surface-3km lapse rates will steepen significantly and
convection will likely develop within a favorable regime for lake
bands. Will not introduce thunderstorms to this region due to the likely
sparse nature of lightning...but a few thunderstorms should evolve over the
warmer waters Thursday.