- Day Three
acus03 kwns 170711
Storm Prediction Center ac 170710
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 am CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014
Valid 191200z - 201200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
localized severe storms are possible Saturday morning into early
afternoon over central and South Florida.
A compact shortwave trough centered in vicinity of northern Florida should gradually
move eastward off the S Atlantic coast. Upstream in the southern stream...a
shortwave trough should dampen in the southwestern Continental U.S./Northwestern Mexico.
Large spread noted in model guidance during d2 persists into d3.
However...the consensus trend has been for a slower eastward progression
of the shortwave trough...suggesting that at least a marginal severe
risk may linger beyond 12z/Sat especially along the East Coast.
Although low/mid-level kinematic fields should be strongest on Sat
morning /magnitude of which varies greatly among guidance/...flow
should become veered and unidirectional with time. This infers that
overall convective coverage will diminish relative to late d2.
..trans-Pecos/Rio Grande Valley of West Texas...
A belt of moderate middle/high-level swlys will overspread the region
downstream of the dampening shortwave trough. An increase in
low-level moisture up the Rio Grande /consisting of middle 40s to
lower 50s surface dew points/ should aid in afternoon convection
forming over higher terrain. The combination of lapse
rates/shear/buoyancy may aid in a few locally strong storms...but
not sufficiently favorable to warrant severe probabilities at this time.