U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 220819 
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Storm Prediction Center ac 220818 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0218 am CST Sat Nov 22 2014 


Valid 241200z - 251200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of eastern North 
Carolina... 


... 
Isolated thunderstorms are forecast early Monday across coastal 
areas of the Carolinas southward into Florida. A few of the 
stronger storms over eastern North Carolina may result in a marginal 
severe threat. 


... 
A longwave middle-level trough over the central states will feature a 
rapidly-moving shortwave trough from the middle MS valley to the St 
Lawrence seaway during the period while a downstream ridge amplifies 
over the Canadian Maritimes and western Atlantic. 


A 980mb surface low over the central Great Lakes will develop northeastward and 
deepen further as it moves into central Quebec. An attendant cold 
front will push eastward across the upper Ohio/Tennessee valleys and Appalachians 
by Monday evening and translate off the eastern Seaboard Monday night 
with the trailing portion of the front over the central Florida Peninsula. 


..ern NC... 
The eastward progression of the effective cold front is forecast to 
largely move across the middle-Atlantic coast states into the coastal 
waters of the western Atlantic. However...the southward extension of the 
front over the coastal Carolinas may not move off the coast until 
midday. Adequate low-level moisture and instability in some model 
guidance could support isolated thunderstorm activity. Given a strong 
middle-level height gradient partially resulting in strong deep 
tropospheric shear...a few storms may pose a marginal severe threat. 


.Smith.. 11/22/2014