- Day Three
acus03 kwns 250710
Storm Prediction Center ac 250708
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Valid 271200z - 281200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated across
the Great Lakes on Monday morning and from the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest on Monday night.
Consensus of guidance suggests a broad middle-level trough over the northern
Great Plains should undergo at least minor amplification late in the
period over the north-central Continental U.S. As it phases with weaker southern-stream
disturbances. An attendant cold front should stretch from the central
Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains by early Tuesday. Guidance depicts
above-average spread in the evolution of the trough and cold front.
..Great Lakes to southern Great Plains...
Despite lower-than-average confidence in the positioning/amplitude
of synoptic features...overall setup does not appear particularly
conducive to severe storms. Moisture return ahead of the front will
be modest and consist of a modified cp air mass with Montana air
currently relegated to the Caribbean. Orientation of the trough and
front will favor predominately southwesterly flow with an eml plume over the
warm sector...likely maintaining substantial inhibition for
Elevated convective clusters should be ongoing within a low-level
warm air advection regime across the Great Lakes on Monday morning. More widespread
convection with embedded thunderstorms is anticipated Monday night as the
trough amplifies and larger height falls overspread the front. Much
of the convective development will probably be rooted by elevated
parcels near the frontal zone. Small hail should be anticipated with
initial updrafts given the remnant eml...but expected weak buoyancy
will preclude probabilities for a marginal severe risk this outlook.